Eleco Public Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 06/6/2018 21:04

as I mentioned before

IC tipped this in April

& if they havent done so yet
phps this week they'll mention the new contract with an international mining conglomerate & that it is in a new sector, mining, (different than normal/historic sector for sales, construction) which opens up opportunities for more possible sales in the mining sector

& since the s.ware is now known to be useful/sellable in more than 1 sector then one assumes we will see sales in other sectors in the future (& not only in construction & mining sectors)

& IC will probably be keen to mention ELCO to show how clever they were to tip ELCO ~20 April at a much lower price...& how beneficial IC is to its readers/buyers.

& I think the weekly issue hits shops tomorrow or Friday

[allstar4eva] 06/6/2018 20:20

Hi Bamboo - It's the best way;-)

[bamboo2] 06/6/2018 20:14

In order for the chart to qualify for consideration as a High and Tight Flag pattern, price needs to rise by at least 90% in two months. We have exceeded that limit by a few sessions.

Given the style of the price action, with consistent week by week appreciation, I am happy to be slightly flexible in the interpretation of the chart pattern ID, and raise the target price to min 120. HTF confirmed.

Are there only a few holders here? Quite surprising.

[smithie6] 06/6/2018 16:40

..interesting..
the share price ended the day at the intraday peak from Monday..which the share price then fell back from

90-92p

ending the day at a new end of day peak is a positive sign

maybe this time around the share price will go up thru it in the coming trading days

[smithie6] 06/6/2018 11:26

good info

Anyone any idea which country HTSA Pty Ltd is based in ? (noting it is a systems services & integration business)

(Pty stands for proprietary & for Auz it means that there must be less than 50 shareholders that are not employees. The part Pty probably exists in various countries in the Commonwealth)

there is an HTSA in South Africa but they are in a completely different sector from systems services...

[ansc] 06/6/2018 08:27

Looking to future expansion with the appointment today of Corporate Development director:

[smithie6] 05/6/2018 16:42

...some movement of shares going on....to be expected after such a big rise in recent weeks/months...

but my guess is that it is more a case of top slicing rather than getting out..

my prediction of an EPS for 2019 is 4 to 4.5p. (4p is from 1 broker & prior trend indicates it could/should be exceeded in reality)

P/E for 2019 results
4p. P/E wrt 86p = 21.5
4.5p P/E wrt 86p =19.1

(4.5p for 2019 with a P/E of 30 would give a share price of 135p; 55-60% increase wrt today's price)

noting that 2018 is expected to produce an EPS of 3.5p, a yearly jump of 40-50%

& 1st 4 months of trading has given a PBT significantly higher than same period in the prior year & 'comfortably meeting mkt expectations for the year' (& H1 2017 produced a similar statement)

& an EPS expectation for 2018 of double the EPS for 2016, only 2 years before !

the shares deserve a higher P/E imo

[ansc] 05/6/2018 15:28

From the bargains marked so far today, 56,864 have been buys and just 15,175 sold. Price up a mere 0.5p? Either supply and demand has gone a tad awry or there must be a large sale waiting in the wings. Time will tell.

[smithie6] 05/6/2018 11:04

btw
on 30th the co. website reported an installation at various sites for an international mining conglomerate

the first reported sale to the mining sector of Powerproject I believe

The ELCO marketing staff & its agents/re-sellers (including about 6 in the USA, & many have different offices around USA not just 1; & ELCO have agents in Auz & that's a big mining country) will of course now be busy making use of that press release and sale/installation.

Can ELCO achieve future sales in the mining sector ?

Im sure they will. This initial client moved from the trial to installing for 300 projects ! & chose it ahead of Oracle's Primavera product, & since that product is from mammoth Oracle one assume's it's pretty capable software....but the mining co. chose the ELCO product..so, makes me think that the ELCO product is very good & will be attractive to other opportunities/companies in the mining sector. But takes time.

[smithie6] 05/6/2018 08:45

not that anyone reads my posts...but previous post...just added a para to it ...marked ADDED

[smithie6] 04/6/2018 11:01

btw the IC mentioned/tipped ELCO close to 20th April
..so I expect they'll very soon mention it again & bang the drum about how good their tip was

[rathkum] 04/6/2018 10:49

Hi ansc,OH NO,just taken some off the table, may consider some more at a £1 if we get there later in the year perhaps at the interim results stage.

[bamboo2] 04/6/2018 10:41

ansc, a consolidation zone [approx 41-48] from March 2017 to Feb 2018 laid the foundation for a strong move.

The resulting pattern is a flag or pennant. We now have the flagpole/staff. At some point another consolidation zone will occur, this is the flag or pennant. Typically the duration of this consolidation zone will be less than 15 sessions.

If price closes above 89 the chart qualifies for consideration as a High and Tight Flag, and the tp could be min 120, although we will have to wait for this pattern to confirm and break out upwards, to calculate an accurate tp.

[smithie6] 04/6/2018 10:24

ansc

congratulations that your long wait (& I believe sizeable PI stake) with ELCO has worked out


---

btw I put a % of my portfolio into ELCO in Nov. 2015....so it's been a fair wait for me as well.....but I think you were in way before that...

je je
checking back I see ansc started another ELCO thread in 2006 !
..a real long term ELCO fan !

[ansc] 04/6/2018 10:20

bamboo2; charting is like a foreign language to me so I've always just relied on actual facts and figures (i.e. research which includes contact with the company) plus gut instinct. The only charts I've ever looked at are historical ones and Elecosoft's current ADVFN five year one is going to be framed (if I can find out how to do it). Having 'banged on' about ELCO's potential for what seems like years, I'm simply watching this stunning performance in amazement!

Hi rathkum, good to see you're still around as I thought you might have departed by now.

[smithie6] 04/6/2018 10:12

..always nice that a share one has goes up & not down..

but well done to everyone at ELCO; producing successful products that ppl want & win awards
And managing to sell the main product in to a new sector from the historic sector of construction. And achieving that it was done abroad and, I assume, in a different language than most of ELCO's sales (most users for this new sale using Powerproject in Spanish in Peru & not in English; I assume).

I assume that Jonathan Hunter played a significant part in the process leading to this sale to the mining sector in Peru (from 2011 Gen. Mgr Grp Mkting, in 2016 he was Marketing & Bus. Development Mngr/Dir & now he is the COO & I assume still heavily involved in Marketing & Bus. Dev.), so a big pat on the back from me !..& to everyone involved.

[rathkum] 04/6/2018 09:06

With a company's potential for growth is finally being recognised by the market, what we are witnessing is a rerating, hence the spectacular rise in the share price.

[smithie6] 03/6/2018 23:25

imo its worth highlighting something in the ELCO news release

already mentioned by ansc in post 526, but easy to overlook amongst the long news release

---

"Looking ahead

The transition to Powerproject is continuing across the business...."

====

& it is a big business !
& its parent co. is an even bigger business !, since the subsidiary co. loves the ELCO product one assumes there is a high chance that other parts of the parent group in the same mining/refinery sector will also see it as beneficial for them as well & hopefully produce more sales for ELCO, over time.

(ELCO stated signific. increase in PBT in 1st 4 months of 2018 & 'comfortably meeting' EPS expectations for 2018, which is a 50% increase from 2017 !; Im 'hopeful' that before the 2018 prelims we'll see this change to 'will exceed market expectatns'. (!) (if so it would be a stunning jump in profit in just 1 year!)

[smithie6] 03/6/2018 11:43

I see that ELCO have a stand at a major conference & expo in USA 24-27 of June

AACE International 2018

Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering.
Established in 1956 (!).
website says 7000 members in 100 countries

& they do training & certification in various subjects related to cost analysis, planning, estimating, scheduling etc etc. Impressive.


(if you pay on the day, it's 800$ entry !. I guess that the stand fee is not cheap )

looks like a very big & respected conference/expo

looks like an excellent opportunity for ELCO for exposure to possible new clients, fingers crossed

(who knows, maybe some mining bosses will be among the visitors ! ;-) (recalling recent reporting of a (first ?) sale of Powerproject into the mining sector) )

[smithie6] 01/6/2018 16:22

likely dates for news, assuming that similar to previous years

mid July 2017 Trading update
(so ~ 6 weeks away for 2018)

Sept. H1 results

Jan. trading update for yr to 31 Dec.

March. Prelim annual results to 31 Dec.

May. trading update on the AGM day

[smithie6] 01/6/2018 14:59

future target share price ??

difficult
how far in the future does one look

---
2018 results
RNS says comfortably in line to meet (& being after only 4 months of trading gives a good chance of a higher result)
3.5p
an EPS increase of 50% !

a P/E of 25 gives 87.5p
a P/E of 30 gives 105p
a P/E of 35 gives 122.5p

---

2019 results
3.9-4.0p is currently predicted but history is for upgrades of predictions and solid record of the delta in EPS increasing

so Im gonna plump for same delta as prediction for 2018, ie. + 1.3p (which my guess/bet is that it will be exceeded in reality)

3.5p+ 1.3p = 4.8p

if 4.8p for 2019 then
P/E of 20 gives 96p
P/E of 25 gives 120p
P/E of 30 gives 144p

---

noting these are guestimates as illustrations looking into the future which infers a risk wrt not achieving (or exceeding !)

& in many cases when there is a growth situation the mkt doesnt price shares based on P/E & instead there can be a push to own a part of a growth story (eg. ELCO from 50p to 85p) & the P/E can go nuts, as happened at Accesso, years in advance of the reported EPS justifying the high share price being paid X yrs before. (& institutions famously didnt sell 1 share & kept holding for years. And saw their gain rocket) (& even though that share price has rocketed it "still" now has a skyhigh P/E at ~60 !, because the growth has been very high)