Eleco Public Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 21/5/2018 11:49

Bought a few here earlier on momentum.

[smithie6] 21/5/2018 10:47

interesting

PBT 2014-2016.... it doubled (0.7M to 1.5M)

PBT 2015-2017.... it doubled (1.0M to 2.25M)

impressive performance

imo which was arguably ignored by the mkt

[petewy] 20/5/2018 11:32

You're filtered Smith mo-one cares.

[smithie6] 19/5/2018 20:27

PBT history

2014 £0.7M
2015 £1.0M
2016 £1.5M
2017 £2.25M

2018 £3.4M
(co. broker est. apparently. ref post 494 )

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change in PBT

+0.3 M
+0.5 M
+0.75 M
+1.15 M predicted

very positive trend


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Clearly very strong growth in PBT (& its real as shown by the cashflow & nett cash numbers)

in these past 4 yrs the PBT has been rocketting & recent RNS saying that the PBT in first 4 months of 2018 is significantly higher than in the same period in previous year shows that the trend continues
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For this track record of growth & recent RNS ( 'PBT from mngmt accnts is significantly up' ) the share price still looks too low, despite the large rise recently. & imo on-going to interim results & then to prelims...et al hopefully.

[smithie6] 18/5/2018 10:11

interesting

yesterday's trading update said PBT is significantly up wrt 1st 4 months of prior year

& for first 6 months in prior year the PBT was up by 68% ! on the prior year to then (ie. H1 in 2016)

(in last 3 yrs the PBT is going nuts..rocketting

(due to operational gearing, extra/additional sales wrt existing repeating ones are highly profitable imo)

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& nett cash at end of H1 2017 was +£259,000 & 10months later it is +£2,400,000

a cash machine !

😀

(if direct line growth it would be 2.8M at end of June 2018 (an increase of 2.6. in 1 year. ie. generating ~ 2.6M cash per year) ;

but noting that nett cash is affected by payables, receivables etc so not always a straight line)
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if generating ~ 2.6M cash per year (+/-) & this is massively higher than 3 years ago (with repeated yearly growth) then current cap. value ~55M does not look expensive ..& corresponds to ~5%.

--
so
imho ELCO is clearly firing on all cylinders !

===

apologies if Im taking over the msg brd with recent posts...but I think I have made 1 or 2 useful points
& of course Im very happy with the news from yesterday & excited about possibilites for the future. & partly since I have quite a few of these shares (for a small player)

[smithie6] 18/5/2018 09:08

it is worth noting imo that turnover in first 4 months of 2018 is up by 7%

while it was 4% (underlying or LfL) in all of 2017

7% might not seem much but if one notes that 90% of the top 100 UK constructors already use ELCO proj. planning
then it infers imho that achieving much higher % growth in some other mkts...using existing products (& with no raw material costs, compare with making houses or operating restaurants)

and yesterday's short trading update said "reflecting both the strength and international spread of our core businesses.."

imo this is saying that international is where a lot of increase is coming from

"international" is the real excitement or attraction of these shares

[smithie6] 17/5/2018 11:21

👍

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(updated 18/5 to improve clarity )


Turnover
rest of world incl USA + 'rest of Europe' (see defintn, excludes UK & Germany, which has its own entry-data)

2017 £3.3M
2014 £1.8M

(& 2014 turnover in USA was only 160k. now 600-800k I think, a high % increase ( x4 !!) but small part of overall ELCO turnover so far; if it were to keep growing then it wld start more heavily impact the group profits)

high turnover % growth from 1.8M to 3.3M, admittably from lowish starting point relative to overall group turnover

3.3M is about 16% of total turnover of ~20M

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& while the possibilities in USA mkt are massive...Europe is another mkt to crack..
& there is also Asia !

..I think accounts say 90% of big UK constructors use ELCO proj. planning software..the % in Europe is I assume fairly small based on the much lower turnover reported...so there are big opportunities for growth there.

--
I liked the RNS so bt back 75% of my top slice sold at 61-64p

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noting that today's trading statement said turnover is up in 2018 & PBT is "significantly" up, it seems that Mr D. Lee seems to have made a good move by apparently buying 5-6 % of the co. in recent months.

& !!
I note that the RNS says someting like
...' turnover up..PBT significantly up
..reflecting...international....'

"international"
so Im going to assume that a good or relevant part of the significant rise in PBT is from international growth ☺ (if ELCO can expand its sales abroad (using existing products) to even be a fraction of the UK sector penetration then the numbers would be orders of magnitude higher)

[ansc] 17/5/2018 09:29

Well spotted, edmonda. I like their summary closing paragraph:

'Even after its recent appreciation, the stock is still not expensive. Trading on EV/sales and PEG ratios of 2.5x (vs peers on 5x) and 1.0x (1.6x) respectively, whilst being 15% below our 85p/share valuation.'

I'm not going to disagree with that. Elecosoft is now an attractive trading proposition, even more so if they can get sales moving in the USA this year, and looking more than ever like a tasty snack for one of the 'big boys'!

[edmonda] 17/5/2018 08:10

after today's positive trading update ED initiates coverage with a full report and valuation from Paul Hill. The research is freely available here:

[smithie6] 15/5/2018 13:57

up again today....I wasnt expecting that after such a strong % rise in recent weeks...

I let 1/4 of mine go around 64p. since I was 'heavy' in ELCO..only 5-10 days ago ..and now 74p to buy !! 😕...ah well. doing nicely with the rest ☺
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if the buyer wants to sell them back to me at the same 64p...just raise your hand !! 😂😂

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and
always depressing when something rockets
😢

all the winnings lost by not having put more on that horse !!
😀😆

[smithie6] 11/5/2018 10:57

25,000 shares bought today at 69p

looks like someone is happy to buy a chunk at this price

--

(best wishes on subject of mobility.
None of us are getting any younger 😕)

[ansc] 10/5/2018 19:35

Unfortunately my mobility, especially walking, has deteriorated a lot during the past 12 months which means, for the first time in a number of years, I'm being forced to miss next Thursday's feast/chin-wag.

I wonder whether Jonathan will give a little spiel this time? The chairman's statement will be of particular interest after the recent buying spree. I'm sure you'll keep us posted afterwards.

[rathkum] 10/5/2018 18:42

I guess you will make the effort to come down to London for a bit of lunch next Thursday.

[ansc] 10/5/2018 11:05

Hi rathkum. Over the many years of dabbling, I've become a bit of a 'Doubting Thomas' so, until the profit is sitting in our bank account, the celebrations will be a little muted.

Like you, I'm looking further ahead so will be in no rush to leave. Even on 2018's consensus forecast of 3.5p earnings, I think 75p or less is cheap. But with a seller regularly dumping 25k, 30k lots (as this morning), it may take a bullish chairman's statement to get through 70p. Hey ho, the increasing divi each year makes the waiting less frustrating!

[rathkum] 10/5/2018 09:58

ansc - have you popped the champagne bottle yet?

Eleco has well exceeded my 60p target for this year but I am not complaining. If the 2019 year EPS forecast of 3.9p plays out, there is still some ways to go. Could easily trade on a PE OF 25.

[ansc] 09/5/2018 19:33

What should we make of this somewhat startling surge (for ELCO) in the share price? Does it mean that Joe Public has finally woken up to the potential of this little gem (a tad late but better late than never) or is it simply the result of one or two recent 'guru' recommendations to their followers? Not that I'm complaining either way! With the AGM due to take place next Thursday (17th), I'm hoping that the chairman is then in a position to 'stoke the fire' with his trading statement.

It's interesting to note that the two analysts (that I know of) covering the company ... finnCap (company broker) and Progressive Equity Research ... are similar in their respective 2018 forecasts: Revenue - fC £22.0m/PER £22.0m; Pbt - fC £3.4m/PER £3.2m; Eps - fC 3.5p/PER 3.5p; Div - fC 0.7p/PER 0.7p. As happened for 2017, will these turn out to be on the conservative side?

Probably the most important question of all tho' at the moment is what should the prospective PER be? I wish I knew the answer to that one!

[ansc] 03/5/2018 17:51

Osborne completes complex construction at Mercers Walk using Powerproject:

[ansc] 03/5/2018 08:51

Interserve uses Powerproject to maintain precision timeline control on University of York project:

[read the full case study]

[smithie6] 24/4/2018 19:43

so, does the LSE send a monthly or weekly report of >3% holders ?

or is it in fact a task for the co. registrar ?
( I wouldnt think the LSE has that info, or ??)

& is the registrar expected to do it ?

[ansc] 24/4/2018 17:47

PICNIC: Further to your original post [475] and my response [476], I've heard back from the company this afternoon regarding J D Lee's significant holding increase. The onus lies with the investor to notify the company of any significant changes in their holding before any company can issue the requisite RNS; in this instance none has been received so, following my enquiry, the company secretary has written to the investor. Why this change wasn't spotted by the co sec at the time of receiving the latest shareholder information from the company Registrar or Broker was not mentioned.

[petewy] 22/4/2018 23:22

PROGRESSIVE Equity Research Alert have a report on ZOO

hxxps://bdadvanced.ipreo.com/OpenFileLink.aspx?ID1=fecc666f-9196-46bd-a746-8bc76848a1cb&ID2=492653150

[petewy] 22/4/2018 23:22

Filter him. Price arrow next to his name and down to filter