Ekf Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 22/6/2022 10:11:42

The good news is - much more value for the price now than then.
Considerable positive change over the past 12 years.
12 yrs ago I wouldn't have paid what I just have paid but happy to do so now.
Patience.

[tongosti] 22/6/2022 08:40:30

I note the price was first at this level in Dec 2010. 12 years ago. Once you adjust for inflation (forget about benchmarking to wider equity indices as the comparison is horrifying) and one has lost big money on this baby. So much for the proverbial "long term" as practiced by Joe Gamblers of the world.

[tongosti] 20/6/2022 14:37:39

What the wise does in the beginning the fool does in the end. Howard Marks

[wan] 20/6/2022 09:05:32

I thought we might see the distribution of Verici shares brought to conclusion.

It would thus be good for EKF shareholders if Verici can effectively break its poor share price performance to date!

My comment today from the Verici thread -

Staying with what really matters -

There has been a relatively small delay in the Clarava results, and having looked more closely at the limited competition e.g. I highlight Care Dx results further above, and the most recent findings that I could source for Eurofins TruGraf(2021) in a somewhat limited study, resulted in a PPV of 35% and a NPV of 81%.
The Authors concluded that overall, investigation of TruGraf’s performance, including long-term clinically meaningful outcomes, in the setting of a randomized clinical trial is warranted.
(Several observational cohort studies are underway to continue to establish and characterize the TruGraf’s clinical utility, including a 24-month, 2000 participant study with clinically relevant outcomes).

Tuteva's results, demonstrating a Positive Predictive Value ("PPV") of 60% and Negative Predictive Value ("NPV") of 80%, appears to indeed be superior to currently available kidney transplant blood tests without enhancement from clinical features, and in a broad validation population.

The first two Verici tests, if finally validated and approved, would appear to set Verici apart from the current kidney rejection testing players. Protega, Verici's third test for fibrosis is in development.
"Maintain momentum on the development of the Company’s third product, Protega™, to maximise the efficiency gains in using existing validation sites set up for the Company’s two lead products, Clarava™ and Tuteva™"

Clarava is a first-of-its kind prognostic test and currently has no competition, and away from the traditional transplant testing companies, one assumes that such a test could also be potentially very valuable to the likes of Davita (Renalytix already has an established relationship with Davita). And being a novel test, I imagine that the clinical validation results were, and still are, keenly awaited.

The Presentation indicated that they are a little delayed with Clarava, but expect to be able to report the results in the next "few weeks", but it's not currently holding Verici back in terms of their accelerated commercialisation plans for this test.

Whilst Tuteva has some competition, the results for Tuteva look set to make it disruptive to highly disruptive to the other existing players.

The overall fall in Verici's value and the planned acceleration of commercialisation arguably puts Verici in play and in danger of becoming a takeover target at a relatively low valuation, with the recent drop of over 30% perhaps providing a catalyst.

CareDx had Cash and cash equivalents of $348.5 million as of December 31, 2021.

At December 31, 2021, Natera held approximately $914.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and restricted cash

Eurofins (more than just transplantation) has substantial financial capacity supporting an ongoing and relatively aggressive M&A strategy

Execution and development risk remain the main risks for Verici, but arguably there has been solid progress to date, and the pace of commercialisation is being accelerated.

According to the recent presentation, the near term news flow will come from Clarava.

I am 'guessing' that other news from partnerships might also realistically be on the cards, as it is perhaps somewhat more random in terms of timing, but the results from Tuteva, and indeed Clarava, might provide impetus in this regard.

[tongosti] 17/6/2022 10:27:00

Don't forget wider markets as well. This share not bottom in isolation. If we are in the midst of a bear market (think we are) then wider equities might have another 30-50% downside from current levels. The equivalent will be a higher level for individual shares. Am sure we agree on this.

[p1nkfish] 17/6/2022 10:19:40

Bound to be a wash-out sometime but given the recent bounce and fall, and the total fall so far, we might have seen it. If it goes lower will be watching the volume as if it drifts very low on low volume its just lack of interest not a rush for the door.

It needs a catalyst and if that's via the results we drift for 12-18 months imho. Good for patient investors looking to add on drifts downwards and adding carefully not to push the price.

[tongosti] 17/6/2022 10:14:35

It's only 24 hours - if you catch my drift - but wish you luck pal. Hopefully you have nailed the bottom!

[cheshire man] 17/6/2022 10:06:45

Well I bought in yesterday and very happy with the price I paid :-)

[tongosti] 17/6/2022 07:45:21

Just when I started to think about giving you credit for critical thinking pal. That's a shame. Wan - your posts are hardly thought provoking fella. Not me saying this but Mr Market - hard to argue with him ain't it. Some of the best in the world must be on to something when they say very few make money consistently in this game (not because they're not intelligent per se) but are unwilling to accept mistakes (ie ego gets involved) early and fix them. Someone is 63% down and still is happy to stay the course?! Lol. Basic maths tells Wan he would need 166% return (assuming this is not going down further South - big ask) just to get back to break even. Small feat eh? P1nkfish - the bottom won't be reached until naive players (who confuse bull markets with you know what) genuinely throw on the towel. Am sure we both agree on this one

[wan] 17/6/2022 05:33:11

Pinkfish...Generally my posts are meant to be thought provoking, and as you say, at best information to add to a reader's own research. So, my post was indeed a bit negative, it was meant to be, but being in the same club as Chris Mills, and probably others, is hardly admitting to becoming bearish overall on EKF, nor indeed was it a criticism of Chris Mills, having also bought at recent lows myself (and higher lows and indeed much lower lows).

I never expect plane sailing with investments, and I understand and accept that sometimes we do have to endure stormy seas to use your analogy. But importantly, I also accept that my investment decisions can be wrong, and therefore it's wrong to sail on regardless! However, I am not currently looking to change course.

[p1nkfish] 16/6/2022 21:35:53

When the biggest bull on something becomes more towards negative its often time to look to buy. Mills underwater is no big deal. He basically said it's a couple of years before the results really shine through. Bio-tech in general is taking a beating.

Get a hobby & forget EKF for a while. If you bought the right thing, ideally at a good price, then leave management to get on with the job. No posts here will make a blind bit of difference and the exterior world is beyond our control except for your teeny part of it which comes down to deciding to buy, sell or hold.

I'm on this ship, didn't expect plane sailing, tied to the mast and shouting expletives at the storm. However, I do consider I was lucky with my buy price which certainly helps.

[tongosti] 16/6/2022 21:12:53

Took you 70% south to ask the obvious old chap. Markets react way before fundamentals do - by the time most think there is a problem, they've lost their shirts. Said this at 80+ and was laughed at them. Not now. Glad you've come around - your best teacher is your last mistake. Think about that pal

[wan] 16/6/2022 16:21:55

Here we are 'again' plumbing new recent lows.

However, this time I have to ask if any of this is 'beyond' the wider market ructions.

In this regard, several things come to mind. The first being the recent RNS regarding the cash payment of $5.5m in relation to COVID-related contract manufacturing inventory. And the somewhat less-than-clear commentary regarding the quantum -

"The accounting effect of this payment will represent an enhancement to both revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the current financial year ending 31 December 2022, however the quantum of the enhancement is not yet confirmed. Therefore, the Board is not seeking to change guidance to analysts on trading and outlook for 2022 at this stage, but expects to provide an ordinary course of business update within the interim results announcement in September."

That means its too early to bank it! In short, meaning there could be other elements/aspects that counter any enhancement.

The second element is Verici, in which EKF recently invested £2.5m and is now well underwater in investment value terms and the last recorded valuation. The same 'currently' applies to Renalytix, in terms of its last recorded valuation.

If my thinking is anywhere near close to being correct (I am not an accountant), and dependant upon what happens to the value of those two investments in the interim of the next results, there will surely need to be a non-cash transaction entry in the accounts, in turn potentially affecting the quantum of effect from the $5.5 payment.

In accounting, a non-cash item refers to an expense listed on an income statement, such as capital depreciation, investment gains, or losses, that does not involve a cash payment, and thus does not affect Cash flow or the amount of cash held. Because in accrual accounting, companies measure their income by also including transactions that do not involve a cash payment to give a more accurate picture of their current financial condition.

The final point is the choice of words from Mike Slater, CEO -

"The receipt of this cash payment is a significant move towards a clean break from COVID-related services for our Contract Manufacturing business as we transition into new areas."

There is both a positive and a negative in there, the quantum of which is yet to be confirmed!

Even Chris Mills is underwater with his recent EKF purchases.....welcome to the EKF (scuba) club!

[tongosti] 16/6/2022 10:11:57

In theory you're right. In theory.

[p1nkfish] 16/6/2022 10:09:30

Anyone buying on the basis of posts on a BB is screwed anyway. Ramping only works if the reader is a bit thick.

The posts are not ramping, just info to add to an individuals own research.

[drew lonmenob] 16/6/2022 09:39:41

sharw28 Apr '22 - 13:03 - 2688 of 2794
0 6 0
wan and Drew - please do what the rest of us did long ago then all you will see is:

tongosti 28 Apr '22 - 11:06 - 2682 of 2687 (Filtered)

tongosti 28 Apr '22 - 11:12 - 2683 of 2687 (Filtered)

and this board will be less cluttered

[tongosti] 16/6/2022 09:10:34

Is our resident darts "champ" watching this fine morning chaps?

[tongosti] 16/6/2022 08:18:02

Floodgates to open today chaps?

[tongosti] 14/6/2022 15:56:26

Hahahahaha

[se81] 14/6/2022 15:53:57

Close above the recent low in May would be interesting

[sooty snipes] 14/6/2022 15:31:18

I see today as a great buying opportunity. Thanks can't believe my luck. This was already on a steady rise pre-covid so I see no reason for it not to continue. Recent very large director buys so plenty of skin in the game.

[tongosti] 14/6/2022 14:02:35

Post 2786. This is indeed "transitioning". In all likelihood towards 16p in light of today's brutal reversal.