Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[investingisatrickygame] 21/2/2018 09:38

Would someone more enthusiastic than me like to obtain the volume turnover in Eden for

1) the last 3 months
2) the last 6 months
3) the last year

And let's look at that as a % of the current 207 million shares in issue.

I know Eden's liquidity is poor which is in effect a guide to the lack of interest in the Company, so I am prepared to wager that the numbers on 1,2 and 3 will be exceptionally low.


One other point, there is more going on here than there is on Eden's Twitter page, LinkedIn page and corporate website which is static. So effectively, ADVFN, for those looking, becomes the face of Eden because there is nowhere else to get real-time information,knowledge, understanding and opinion.

[investingisatrickygame] 21/2/2018 09:30

PaulPaolo,

The Company will now be in a closed period for sure meaning Director buys are not possible. However, as Northwick has pointed out, this is not always so and therefore Directors could have purchased shares in the past. This of course requires 1) personal funds and 2) belief that they will make money. They earn good money, but I never assume, to be fair to any Director, that they have available funds. They could still be in a closed period post results IF Terpene Tech, Bayer or any other news is still due, not yet released and thought to be significant enough to move the share price. I have to laugh a bit at this last statement because although it is fact, nothing ever moves the Eden share price!!!!! I wonder why:) ?

A downside to Director purchases in the sometimes misplaced timing and generosity of the Remuneration Committee who award options to Directors of Plc Companies, particularly small AIM listed companies where roles often overlap. The option awards, nearly always adjusted by new options if the old options are not or do not look like being 'in the money' are a deterrent from Directors purchasing shares as they are nearly always over generous and the milestones of achievement very rarely are in line with share price performance. So the award structure and catalyst to exercise are wrong.

All Directors of listed companies should be exposed to share price and capital risk. This should be mandatory, once again, so they are truly aligned with investors. Until that is so, there will never be a level playing field.

[northwick] 21/2/2018 09:18

Good morning Supersonica In reply - I believe the city presentations failed to enthuse new investors partly because of the low value of the company, partly because its own broker has a defacto sell note in the market, partly because current CEO has yet to invest his own money into Eden, and partly because its (genuine) potential value is a few years away.It took NASA less than 10 years to go to the moon & back. how long has it taken Eden? Lastly, I ask - should shareholders sit by and do nothing when its BoD has lost 60% of their company's value ( in less than one year)? I fear not.It's a pity there is no liquidity currently in Eden's shares.

[supersonico] 21/2/2018 08:29

Interesting Eastman presentations.. from recent innovation day

[paulpaolo] 20/2/2018 23:57

Ah, past years' prelims seem to have been published end of March. Good, that should get people interested in the share, either sell some or buy some, I don't care which, we need some liquidity at the moment the price is meaningless nobody buying or selling - I did buy some today though, in one go.

[paulpaolo] 20/2/2018 23:54

"The lack of meaningful revenues" - am waiting for prelims, but it is true that in 2017 the French vine licence didn't yet give the revenues it should have. This may be partly due to a dry summer last year in Europe, very little botrytis, also slow awareness raising among rather conservative French farmers. For all I know they may never buy it much, but ... I hope this year is better. Who can know. "Potential investors are scratching their heads to identify the potential catalyst for change" - I am quite interested in them getting the UK and USA licences first half 2018, with luck, for the nit treatment. It's big business and nits are notoriously resistant to rather a lot of existing stuff, see - she was promoting some daft laborious expensive hours-long manual process of removal for lazy but rich women without a job hence time on their hands, but a more organic(ish) chemical treatment that works could do well. And I think it's 3 or 4 weeks to prelims ? Also Eden has many baskets carrying its eggs so it feels safer even when it's low, than my dog-stocks or binary bets like PANR and UKOG. In truth there is almost NO liquidity at all, nobody buys or sells any for sometimes up to a week, so really, the price at the moment means so little.

[paulpaolo] 20/2/2018 23:46

If it were the case that the BOD knew information not yet revealable to all for whatever reason, they could not make purchases as that is privileged information/insider dealing under the London Code of Conduct as it used to be called (do not create a false or misleading impression or cause others to do so, and - relevant here - do not use inside information, etc). Directors are often in this situation. I have no idea if they are, just saying.

[quazie12] 20/2/2018 23:41

SuperWhat utter nonsense your last statement in that post to Northwick. Blatant ramping by you without basis imo.The BoD's continued lack of willingness to buy shares in Eden over years is a fact and you know it. In the past I have held more shares than some of them. The changes in the business model and direction, the lack of meaningful revenues and absence of profits in spite of years of promise and promises is the issue and potential investors are scratching their heads to identify the potential catalyst for change. As a result the share price has simply languished. Livingbridge are probably sitting on a 40% paper loss since they got involved 2 years ago. Is that savvy investing ?Q12

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2018 23:39

Look at how the enthusiasm built there when just discussing the potential value of the Eastman deal, as it stands, to Eden's share price. If existing shareholders can get excited about that, so will others not invested and they will invest.

The conclusions were logical and quite restrained and look at how many multiples we are talking about of today's share price. That is why it is wrong that the share price today sits below 9 pence

Tell the story and build the investment case in that story, keeping it all logical and relevant, yet do it with enthusiasm and do it properly and the share price will rise.

[supersonico] 20/2/2018 21:18

Norhtwick

What is your assessment as to why the Powerscourt presentation may have failed to convince investors?

[northwick] 20/2/2018 20:45

Supersonica Has their hands been tied since last June? I beg not. Re city investors, it is clearly evident that recent city presentations by Eden (arranged by Powerscourt) has failed to convince investors to turn at the altar. Admitted, valuation under £50m precludes many institutions from investing - but are we saying there are no other investors like Livingbridge who could have been smitten?

[supersonico] 20/2/2018 19:45

Northwick,

I disagree with the the conclusions your question/statement makes. ie 'washed their hands of Eden'...City whose path must have crossed Eden before etc .

Would it be fair to say that Eden have been able to attract the Investors it's wanted?

Livingbridge are astute investors as are Sipcam. Astute city buyers are going to have to buy like the rest of us.

Regarding BOD buying that would be welcome but considering what we think is just over the Horizon 'in the coming months'..might their hands be tied?

[attyg] 20/2/2018 19:26

Sorry, was rushing when writing last post - dinner was called!
Perhaps £1 is too optimistic for this time next year, but certainly possible in two years time.

Also, tapping rather than taping - oops

[northwick] 20/2/2018 19:21

Hello everyone Despite knowing what we all know about Eden and its prospects why is the share price where it is, and why is it still valued at £18m?Surely, we must accept that there are much clever and astute investors in the City whose path must have crossed Eden before. If this is true, why have they washed their hands of Eden? Would it be wrong to assume the market knows better and, at present time, it does not see value in it yet. If there is a realistic chance of a return in the near future, why aren't the Bod not dipping their hands into their pockets to increase their holdings?What's stopping them ?

[supersonico] 20/2/2018 18:25

Thanks all.. very illuminating..

[redhill9] 20/2/2018 17:57

The PE ratio for a small biotech company with rapid, continuing growth in sales and profits could be anything from 40 upwards. It's easy to get carried away but try applying that ratio to just the Eastman derived profit suggested above, ignoring all other potential profit streams, and you get a quite ridiculous market cap.

Its good to dream but it's that sort of potential that attracted most of us to Eden in the first place.

[brucie5] 20/2/2018 17:39

Great discussion - keep it going!

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2018 17:06

AttyG

So, if Eastman sales start in 2019 or early 2020 AND IF brokers and institutions look 3 years forward, then at £10 million to Eden and say costs of running the business at £2 million (maybe a bit more) then what multiple of £8 million might forecasters and investors look at to factor in the value of the Eastman contract to Eden's share price?

Let's remember, Eden is now in the tech sector (industrial biotech self-declared)

Just the Eastman contract and based on 207 million shares in issue (Eden self-declared no need to raise any more capital now)what multiple of eight million might we reasonably expect to use?

Whatever it is, we can then assume the same for 3AEY and Bayer if it ever comes along!

[supersonico] 20/2/2018 15:32

AttyG..any thoughts on this?

you have a good head for figures If my memory serves me right.

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2018 15:15

So 50 million euros p.a to Eastman and........to Eden?

[supersonico] 20/2/2018 13:43

Work in progress; so far;

Very Rough work out based on Taminco 12/31/13 Report/ (please correct where I have it wrong..lots of assumptions here)

Business Segments divided into Functional Amines/ Speciality Amines / Crop protection.

CP MADE UP OF a further 4 components; Fungicides and Seed treatments/Industrial applications/growth regulators and Plant Stimulants/ Soil Disinfection.

CP TOTAL =16% of adjusted EBITDA

CP sales 140m

profit = 42M

sales predicted to grow 7% pa.2013-2018 = 196m Euro round up to 200 for convenience.

Having no figures on the CP breakdown if we assume 25% for each segment.

25% of 200M Soil Disinfection sales = 50m pa growing 7% pa @2019







Taminco --Markets for Our Products
Agriculture (36% of Volume)
The total market for agricultural chemicals is estimated at $51 billion, having grown in nominal value terms by 7% per annum between 2005 and 2009, and by about 5% per annum between 2009 and 2012. According to research provided by consultants, the market is projected to increase at approximately 7% per annum in nominal value terms from 2013 to 2018. The top global producers in this market include Syngenta, Bayer, BASF, Dow, Monsanto and DuPont. We believe demand for agricultural chemicals will be driven by numerous factors, including the need for increased agricultural yields to serve a growing world population as arable surface area available for agricultural production is limited; rising disposable incomes among a growing middle class in emerging markets being spent on more high quality food; increased use of biofuels which is diverting more agriculture away from food supply; and desire among governments to increase food supply in order to limit domestic food price volatility.
We expect that increasing yield from existing land will require more productive plants, and crop protection products, such as fungicide, soil fumigation and plant growth regulators will be key components to achieving greater yield with minimal crop loss. We also expect demand for agricultural yields to drive growth in the market for herbicide systems, particularly in developing countries, albeit at a slower rate than certain other agricultural chemicals, and that this growth will be partially offset by increasingly commoditized pricing, as low cost producers in China and elsewhere enter the market. According to research provided by consultants, on average, amines and their derivatives account for approximately 15% of the end product cost structure for those products.

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2018 10:43

Supersonico,

Can you distil your post 3327 to show Eastman market share currently, therefore what Cedroz could replace

[investingisatrickygame] 20/2/2018 09:42

Attyg and others,

Sorry to be a drag, but the market cannot recognise what it cannot see. Eden is all but invisible.

There are three markets in Eden

1) Those PI's currently invested

2) City side who are currently invested and City side not invested

3) Those that do not know about Eden, are possibly invested elsewhere and wish to find capital growth, but are not aware of and not invested in, Eden

Each market needs to hear and understand different things. Each market has different strategies and each market will assess an investment/their investment in Eden in a different way

1) Fed up with the share going nowhere and needs to see real growth, financially and geographically which hits the accounts now and will have real value in the share price

2) Possibly fully invested, but City side not invested will need Eden to meet investment criteria to enable them to invest combined with a real vision and some evidence that it is going to happen

3) Needs to hear the full story and opportunity to whet their appetite to stake an investment