Eden Research Share Discussion Threads

[investingisatrickygame] 11/1/2018 14:11

An issue with Eden right now is that their primary income is 3AEY. Even if we assume this is a global product and Eden via its resellers penetrates the market sufficiently to make a dent, it will always be subject to climate and weather conditions. This we can see from the frosts last year, mudslides, unusual weather at unusual times and more and this will always be an unpredictable variable meaning forecast sales is, in theory, very difficult. Eden cannot control the weather, but the weather can control, to some degree, (excuse the pun. Eden's P & L.

Suppose we have unusual weather again this year in Europe and it affects the harvest for a second year running. Where does this put Eden and its credentials for shareholder investment? Eden can protect their shareholders by declaring volume sales to distributors as these are Eden's direct sales. There is more than one distributor and Sipcam only has a strategic stake of 9.9% so they shouldn't control this piece of communication to the market.

It would be very revealing to know what was sold to distributors in 2017 that they sold on to farmers for in-field use for that season vis-à-vis what the distributors may have purchased as advanced stock for the 2018 season.

Eden needs a big commercial win to hit the accounts this year. Someone who will transform their P & L. Can TT or Bayer deliver this?

If not, then maybe Eden should communicate to the market what their model is for shareholder success that doesn't see investors in their grave before value is delivered!

For anybody interested, this is the way modern tech companies go about growth and value It is 48 minutes long, but towards the end you will understand. Eden is an industrial biotech, yet they are moving, relatively speaking, at such a slow pace to modern day tech (market penetration, usage, shareholder value).

And finally, in regards to the Donald Trump speech at the 'Rebuilding Rural America Conference' regulation being cut, Eden's products are considered 'GRAS'(Generally Regarded As Safe) are they not and so commercial success should be easier to expedite.

[northwick] 11/1/2018 13:23

Supersonica Kind of you to give your observations. May have to hold eden shares for another few seasons(years) to see its value realised. Regards

[northwick] 11/1/2018 12:16

Supersonica What do you make of today's trading statement. Was it what you had expected & hoped for?Your observations will be appreciated.Regards

[supersonico] 11/1/2018 11:33

Bordeaux Season report for 2016



Season report for 2015



Season report for 2014

www.winespectator.com/webfeature/show/id/50915

[weyweyumfozo] 11/1/2018 11:11

Hopefully Powerscourt are paid by the hour - so they shouldn't have cost anything yet!

[investingisatrickygame] 11/1/2018 10:58

weyweyufozo,

I have spoken with Eden many times.

Maybe you should ask why they employ a PR firm which is not a regulatory requirement given your thought's and POwerscourt's visible lack of contribution thus far. I am as frustrated as anyone with this.

I get the sense that Eden is not reaching out to potential new investors. So even with great numbers delivered in the P and L, will existing shareholders have the funds to further invest in Eden AND the confidence to do so?

We could be sat here for years waiting for share price success if the only measure of success is profit

[weyweyumfozo] 11/1/2018 10:50

investinga,

PR hot air is a waste of time and money as far as Eden is concerned, because the market decided long ago that it would wait to see sales and profits.

If you are confident that Eden will come good, take the current share price as a buying opportunity. Otherwise, either don't invest, or sell if you currently hold and come back later when you see concrete figures that provide you with the confidence to invest.

Have you spoken to Eden or TerpeneTech regarding your concerns?

[hillofwad] 11/1/2018 10:46

Over 25% of the revenue was from a one off payment from Sipcam so just to stand still they have to replace this revenue from increased sales

If weather interfered with sales maybe those who bought ending up with the product unused and stockpiled .

Admittedely they didn't get a clear run at their main market but gone is the exciting talk of a global rollout to hitherto untapped markets . Surely there must be some mileage In Australia, New Zealand and the USA worth mentioning

[investingisatrickygame] 11/1/2018 10:24

So we have some commentary to the positive on here. When I read that trading statement I hear Eden saying at the beginning post numbers

"This was a good performance since the 2017 growing season was challenging for fungicidal products in many southern European countries due to hard frosts in April followed by high heat and drought in the summer. These well-documented conditions resulted in the smallest harvests in 60 years in key markets such as France and Italy."

AND IN THEIR LAST LINE

""Despite challenging growing conditions in key territories and a shortened marketing campaign in France, we are pleased with the progress made in 2017 and we look forward to providing a further update when we report our full year results for the year ended 31 December 2017 in March."

So they start on an excuse and finish on one too. Now we all know the story (presumably), but if you want to entice new money in from this RNS, where is the incentive to do so? There is no apparent need to jump in today and so there will be no northward mobilisation of the share price.

EDEN do not know how to build a story or tell it. Where is their professional help, Powerscourt, in all of this? They have been on RNS's since the first of September 2017, employed since the first of October 2017 and we are now 3.5 months into their tenure, 25% in time of their annual contract. I don't think the market has heard anything from them. So what is the step-change that they have delivered since Eden removed Walbrook PR? I'm guessing Powerscourt is also more expensive per month than Walbrook.

History shows that these PR companies are a waste of shareholder funds and operational funds. If Eden is a ground-breaking industrial biotech then why is Powerscourt unable to deliver a narrative? To me, this is quite remarkable.

I can see that Eden has good products and potential. Biotech will also trade on excellent P/E's. Eden is looking at solving global agricultural issues. But where is the story,the building story? Where is the commitment to engage and deliver value into the share price? Where is the recognition of shareholder funds invested and the need to provide a return on invested capital? Where is the alignment between board and shareholder?

To me there isn't one and so again, Eden is to blame for the share price and appears to learn nothing from the past. The RNS channel in isolation delivers no value to the Eden share price. The engagement of a hot shot communications firm has done nothing to assist the share price. Shore Capital are impotent so who cares what their broker note says.

Overall, Eden is becoming very underwhelming. If the products and patents are that good, then come the commercial announcements of Bayer and TT, I wouldn't be surprised to perhaps see someone sniffing around with a very cheap offer that Eden would struggle to defend. And even if they did defend such a situation, I doubt shareholders would listen because there is no strong relationship between the two that would encourage shareholders to listen.

[weyweyumfozo] 11/1/2018 10:14

"For the first time since launching 3AEY in 2015, Eden will benefit from a full season of sales in 2018 in the world's top three wine producing countries of Italy, France and Spain."

That is a full season of sales to HALF the world of wine production volume.

[redhill9] 11/1/2018 09:32

Congratulations Jaknife for commenting that the loss for the period has more than halved - good news we'll both agree.

However there are two far more crucial figures that you have ignored: cashflow and revenue.

You made a big point after the June results that Eden was "still burning cash". You were told you were wrong at the time and today's RNS demonstrates this with a very healthy cash position of £3.7m.

As for revenue of £1.9m compared to £0.4m - do you not find this increase significant?

I appreciate you have an agenda to follow but you'll have to be fairly desperate to try and find negatives in these trends.

[northwick] 11/1/2018 08:35

New note by the house broker, Shore capita, was released this morning so I am told

[supersonico] 11/1/2018 08:27

That'll Do Pig..That'll do.

[attyg] 11/1/2018 08:14

second 6 mths understated

Should be OVER stated

[attyg] 11/1/2018 08:11

This caught me off guard - in early all the other days and only turned on the computer around 7.30 this morning.

Results look good to me.

I have made an amateurish attempt at determining the results for the 6 mth period by taking what info we know - half year to June and a couple of figures in the RNS.

ADVFN text is not easy to follow, but I think the numbers below can be cut n pasted onto Word and they will get back into columns for easier review.

I reckon the profit at the half year was incorrectly stated with all the £570k exceptional royalties refund being taken to the income statement and not recognising the need to pay out $250k - so first six months expenses understated and second 6 mths OVERstated - of course I could be wrong.

12 Mths 6 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths
Dec-17 Dec-17 Jun-17 Dec-16

Revenue £1,900 £874 £1,026 £392
Cost of sales (£776) (£464) (£312) (£29)
Gross profit £1,124 £410 £714 £363

Administrative expenses (£1,492) (£800) (£692) (£1,439)
Exceptional royalties refund (note 9) £370 (£200) £570
Amortisation of intangible assets (£787) (£400) (£387) (£680)
Share based payments (note 8) (£130) (£130) (£130)

Total other operating expenses (£2,039) (£1,530) (£509) (£2,249)

Operating profit/(loss) (£915) (£1,120) £205 (£1,886)

Finance income/(costs) £3 £1 £2 (£15)

Share of loss of equity accounted investee, net of tax (£6) (£3) (£3) (£12)

Profit/(loss) on ordinary activities before taxation (£900) (£1,104) £204 (£1,913)

Sales of some £874k in the last 6 months are great.
I have assumed some £100k as milestones etc from TT, Eastman but could be more - Bayer, evaluation fees?
I thus have product sales of £774k at a GP of 40%.
I had thought our GP would/should be 50% but I guess 40% is still good.

I think these results are good and bode well for 2018.

It was also great to see cash has not burnt at all in the six months - we may even have been cash positive.

I really would have liked to know the litres sold for 3AEY - disappointing not to announce this as I cannot see how that can be commercially sensitive - presumably we will have them in May. Shame to have to wait so long and thus left to speculate.

Obviously just an attempt at the numbers - could be well off.

Cheers

[investingisatrickygame] 10/1/2018 18:44

Not really, only 170k volume. About time we were trading millions of shares

[supersonico] 10/1/2018 17:03

Today the 'stake builders' were in ascendance.

[supersonico] 10/1/2018 15:54

Trump BIO Tech = GMO
Backward, Destructive and anti democratic....

Extinction Accelerator.

[redhill9] 10/1/2018 15:04

I don't disagree - I certainly expected the share price to be higher by now (based on company performance being more visibly successful in terms of sales than we so far know).

However my point was about the directors having the incentive to get the share price higher over the next few years; I wasn't suggesting that the market would buy shares based merely on the directors having that incentive.

[investingisatrickygame] 10/1/2018 14:38

redhill,

Should we not be over those levels now? Those options whilst encouraging, have been in place for a while and have served as no incentive to the investment community to buy stock, safe in the knowledge that those options and prices and in place. The company is creating no momentum. Are we in a false market or is the Company only worth £19 million?

The odd RNS and an option scheme will not move the price. Again, history has shown that to be so for Eden investors. It needs more vigorous, ongoing and wider ranging efforts.

[redhill9] 10/1/2018 14:27

Investingisatrickygame, All your points are valid but worth remembering perhaps that executive directors have share options that require the share price to be at levels above 20p and up to (I think) 36p over the next 2-3 years for them to be exercised or they expire (the options that is, not the directors). Quite an incentive for them to get the share price up.

[supersonico] 10/1/2018 14:11

No Question Investing.. updates of substance would be welcome.