Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[boonkoh] 25/4/2024 08:34

Can't see anything that would this going back to the 110p level in the next week or two.However, won't really make much more progress upwards unless they up the IR on their vaccine pipeline and the potential there.China live hog prices looking firmer for the rest of the year compared to last 12 months but probably not enough to have farmers more bullish and profitable to spend more.

[edmonda] 25/4/2024 07:34

"FY24 ahead of expectations"

In a trading update for the twelve months to end 31 March 2024, ECO Animal Health reports that revenue should be close to £90m; this compares to the March trading update outlook of £88.7m. The Group expects that FY24 (adj.) EBITDA should be in line with the current market consensus expectation of £7.8m (ED estimate was £7.6m). The year-end cash position was approximately £22.0m; we estimated £20.1m.

The Group also noted EBITDA delivery against the background of maintained investment in R&D, the wellspring of future product and revenue streams. Our FY24 estimates include provision for £4.2m of R&D spend for the year.

Our Fair Value range is 137p-146p, reflecting the potential in the pipeline of products under development, which is backed by the rigour of EAH’s development-to-distribution process.

New research note here:

[cerrito] 25/4/2024 07:23

Seems good and helpful that they are telling us their reading of current market expectations.
When I first read it,I was surprised that cash was £22m despite heavy investment.I then reminded myself that it was £20.5m at end September and £1m plus was received in the half from UK property sales and we do not know how much is in China.

[boonkoh] 09/4/2024 11:57

Seems to me that Schroders has cleared an overhang which was weighing down on the share price?Nice rise today on small volumes.

[linton5] 09/4/2024 11:11

Once they start the share buyback and small amount available with decent results coming out soon I can see £2 easy

[brianblu] 09/4/2024 10:39

Well held and undervalued stock Schroeder still accumulating 17% now moves fast at times

[cerrito] 07/4/2024 08:03

Citywire summarizes the views of Shore
quote
Vet pharmaceutical group Eco Animal Health (EAH) has potential locked in its pipeline and is driving forward its core business with its latest disposal, says Shore Capital.

Analyst Sean Conroy retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and ‘fair value’ target price of 175p on the stock, which softened 0.4% to 84.7p yesterday after the disposal of its non-core ECOmectin Horsepaste product line to its manufacturing partner for €1.3m.

Conroy said the disposal shows that the group is focused on ‘driving forwards its core business of treatments and preventatives for pigs and poultry’.

Shares in the business are trading on embedded value to pre-tax profit ratio of 5.8 times full-year 2024 and 5.1 times full-year 2024, which Conroy said was a ‘sizeable discount to animal health peers on 12 times and 11 times, respectively’.

Sentiment has improved on the back of a positive trading update, but it has further to go if there is to be clarity on performance for the year at the next update.

Conroy said there is ‘growth potential’ in the pipeline which means Eco Animal Health should ‘trade closer to the peer group average’.

‘Securing regulatory approvals for its mycoplasma poultry vaccines should provide a catalyst to allow more value to be ascribed to the pipeline,’ he said.

‘However, when discounting the dynamics of the development pipeline from our model, we still value the underlying commercial business at 150p, and, hence, we see a good buying opportunity from both a growth and value perspective.’

Next: SSP enjoying ongoing momentum

[cerrito] 04/4/2024 08:24

Singers in their note on today's news of this sensible deal reminded me of what the company said in their March TU-namely that we will have a full year TU at the end of this month.

[edmonda] 04/4/2024 07:28

Disposal of non-core equine treatment for €1.3m

Eco Animal Health has announced the disposal of its treatment for equine parasitic infections, ECOmectin® Horsepaste, to its long-term Italian manufacturing partner ACME Drugs S.r.l.

ACME will acquire all ECOmectin® Horsepaste intellectual property, manufacturing and inventory, distribution arrangements and marketing authorisations.

The total consideration for the deal is €1.3m (£1.1m), comprising €0.5m paid on signature of the sale and purchase agreement and two further payments of €0.4m payable 18 months and 36 months post-completion, each of which is unconditional and supported with a bank guarantee to be put in place within 45 days.

Our Fair Value range is 137p-146p which contrasts with the current share price and suggests that the potential contribution to earnings from the product development pipeline deserves far closer attention.

[cerrito] 23/3/2024 14:26

I found this on Citywire
quote
Vet pharmaceutical group Eco Animal Health (EAH) delivered a ‘reassuringly positive’ trading update and is offering both growth and value, says Shore Capital.

Analyst Sean Conroy retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and a ‘fair value’ target price of 175p on the stock, which climbed 2.9%, or 2.5p, to 88p yesterday after ‘delivering robust growth in the current environment’ owing to its ‘commercial prowess’.

Although the group has not been immune from recent weakness in pork prices it has demonstrated ‘a high degree of resilience to the ongoing lull in the hog cycle’.

Conroy said the shares are trading on an embedded value to pre-tax earnings ratio of 5.9 times for 2025 and 5.3 times for 2025, which is a ‘sizeable discount to animal health peers on 12 times and 11 times, respectively’.

He said the stock should trade closer to peers, inferring 100% upside to the share price.

‘Securing regulatory approvals for its Mycoplasma poultry vaccines in the first half 2025 should provide a catalyst to allow more value to be ascribed to the pipeline,’ he said.

‘However, when discounting the dynamics of the development pipeline from our model, we still value the underlying commercial business at 150p and hence, we see a good buying opportunity from both a growth and value perspective.’

[boonkoh] 21/3/2024 10:08

Indeed. And China pork futures have recovered somewhat too. Which should reduce the risk of any further China sales weakness in H1-FY25.

[tradertrev] 21/3/2024 09:36

If H2 sales are flat YoY with China being weak (not specifically stated, but we've all seen the fall in Chinese pig prices), this implies growth in the wholly-owned parts of the business, which is better for shareholders.

[cerrito] 21/3/2024 07:42

The £88.7.m figure suggests they did sales of £50m in H2 the same as sales in the H2 of FY 22/23.A reminder that sales in the previous full year 22/23 were £85.3m.

[edmonda] 21/3/2024 07:28

"Sustained demand and continuing progress"

For the year ended 31 March 2024, Eco Animal Health reports progress in both the second half and Q4, underpinned by demand for the Group’s proprietary Aivlosin® antibacterial treatment for gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases in pigs and poultry. The Group reports sustained demand for Aivlosin® across the territories it targets, which we note are worldwide: China, Japan and SE Asia, the Americas and Europe. The Group expects FY24 revenue to be in line with a market consensus estimate of £88.7m.

Following the November Capital Markets event we reviewed the contribution to valuation of the product development pipeline, particularly in light of the strong track record established by Aivlosin® . Our resulting Fair Value range was 137p - 146p. This contrasts with the current share price, and suggests that the potential contribution to earnings of the product development pipeline deserves far closer attention.

Link to research note:

[cerrito] 19/3/2024 21:25

I am always interested in voter turnout at SGM and AGM of AIM companies to see how engaged shareholders are. Pretty much at EAH as 40m of the 67m shares were voted for routine and noncontroversial motions.

[pugugly] 15/3/2024 11:58

1 year breakout DOWN. Skids really under EAH.
p/ratio high and PEG too high for my liking.
Plus of course political risk in main market.
Anyone like to call the bottom?

[cerrito] 17/2/2024 17:26

I see the price has drifted down in the last few days with both Wednesday and Friday busy by EAH standards.
I note last year we had a TU on March 8th and the year before on March 15th and am going on the basis that we will have one in the first half of this March.

[cerrito] 15/2/2024 08:23

I note that Genus TU today refers to the Chinese porcine market as challenging,which is no big surprise.

[mr macgregor] 08/2/2024 11:11

China pork price slumped 17% in January.

[cerrito] 13/1/2024 18:29

Saw this on Citywire this week.
quote
Vet pharmaceutical group Eco Animal Health (EAH) had a challenging 2023 and there is ‘significant value on offer’, says Shore Capital.

Analyst Sean Conroy reiterated his ‘buy recommendation on the stock, which was trading at 109p on Monday.

It had a difficult 2023 due to its primary customer base, pork producers, dealing with depressed hog prices and elevated feed costs.

‘Despite this Eco Animal Health has delivered decent growth and continued to gain share with (pig disease treatment) Aivlosin, an impressive feat in our view, and certainly one that helps speak to its commercial prowess,’ said Conroy.

This year, Conroy said that there is ‘ample scope for Eco Animal Health to sustain sales momentum and, given the strength of the performance in the first half, potentially beat our full-year 2024 forecasts’.

‘The latest set of interim results have helped to reaffirm our conviction that there is still significant value on offer from Eco Animal Health’s core, commercial business, and additional upside to be realised from its R&D pipeline.’

[tole] 11/1/2024 12:07

Quite a large reported trade at 109 this morning £1,575,155