Eco Animal Health Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 10/7/2023 08:48

At least back in profit, and cash reserves up significantly. Last yr's share price has been a sawtooth, let us hope it leaves that pattern.

[waldron] 10/7/2023 08:05

Will today be the start of a trend up

[waldron] 10/7/2023 08:05

Analysts' Consensus

Mean consensus
BUY


Number of Analysts
2


Last Close Price
0.9800GBP


Average target price
1.575GBP
Spread / Average Target
+60.71%


High Price Target
1.650GBP
Spread / Highest target
+68.37%


Low Price Target
1.500GBP
Spread / Lowest Target
+53.06%

[waldron] 10/7/2023 07:22

Outlook

Trading momentum from the second half of FY2023 has continued into the first half of the current financial year.


In China, the Group has seen improved trading and the Asian and Latin American markets continue the trend of delivering strong growth.


Production and operational efficiencies are being driven by the leadership team and this is expected to support margins going forward.

The R&D programme continues to provide considerable excitement and game-changing future product flow is confidently expected.

Despite the challenges from continuing, sporadic African swine fever outbreaks and commodity price pressures, the Board is cautiously optimistic for the remainder of this financial year and views the future with confidence.

[waldron] 06/7/2023 12:24

London Stock Exchange - 08:03:34 06/07/2023 BST


98.72 GBX +0.73%

[misca2] 05/7/2023 10:35

ECO Animal Health Group plc, a leader in the development, registration and marketing of pharmaceutical products for global animal health markets, will issue its results for the year ended 31 March 2023 on Monday 10 July 2023.

Investor Presentation

David Hallas, CEO, and Christopher Wilks, CFO, will be conducting a live presentation covering the company's FY Results for the period ended 31 March 2023. The online presentation will take place on Wednesday 12 July at 2.30pm UK time.

[cerrito] 27/6/2023 10:44

This has been rather off my radar in the last weeks.
I note that in the March TU they referred to another update which of course we have not had.
Hopefully they can do as they did in 2021 and get the results out in July.

[cerrito] 27/6/2023 10:36

Yes, PUGUGLY, I there are some sobering charts of pig prices in Chins:not sure what overall effect to EAH the strengthening of the pound against the RMB has given that they produce their secret sauce in China:to the extent that they are comparable the share prices of GNS and ANP do not add comfort and of course there is the whole malaise of the UK small cap market.

[pugugly] 26/6/2023 13:47

Pig prices seem to be falling in China - Can anyone confirm? Share price is weakening - Is it just China being out of favour or pig prices or a mixture of both?

[topvest] 04/6/2023 21:35

Because it's worth £2-3 to a bidder in my view? It was certainly overvalued at £5-6 and I sold out, but unfortunately nowhere near the high. I re-entered at below £1 because I think this is still a business worth c£200+m. The Chinese pork market will no doubt recover, it's just a matter of time. Remember that any global bidder could strip out lots of cost and plug the products into their distribution pipeline, massively improving profitability.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 02/6/2023 12:27

These shares should be cheaper than this IMO. Not an asset play and not cheap on earnings. Why would anyone bother at this price?

[cerrito] 16/5/2023 07:24

From this morning's Genus TU
Quote
Since December 2022 the Chinese porcine market has been weak, reflecting high supply of slaughter pigs following widespread African Swine Fever ('ASF'). Expectations of a recovery in the market grew during February 2023, when the pig price rose from a low of 14.1 RMB/kg to 15.9 RMB/kg on 2 March. However, since then the pig price has fallen back below 15 RMB/kg and is currently 14.3 RMB/kg, with continued widespread ASF outbreaks and subdued demand. At these prices, producers are unprofitable, and many are not replacing and rebuilding their sow herds at the current time. Due to the volatile porcine market PIC China's trading has been weaker than the first half of the fiscal year, achieving lower revenues, with operating profit also impacted by costs associated with the clearance of inventory at two PIC farms that were infected by ASF in the period.
Unquote
And
Outlook

Market researchers are currently anticipating a recovery in the China porcine market in the summer as the supply decreases and consumer demand for pork continues to increase, but there is uncertainty as to the timing of when the demand for porcine genetics will improve

[ariane] 07/5/2023 08:50

Upcoming events on ECO ANIMAL HEALTH GROUP PLC


June/30/2023 FY 2023 Earnings Release (Projected)

[ariane] 07/5/2023 08:48

Consensus

Mean consensus BUY

Number of Analysts 3

Last Close Price 122,50 GBX

Average target price 187,00 GBX
Spread / Average Target 52,7%

High Price Target 246,00 GBX
Spread / Highest target 101%

Low Price Target 150,00 GBX
Spread / Lowest Target 22,4%

[ariane] 07/5/2023 08:46

Can Resistance be broken at 130p

[topvest] 06/5/2023 20:36

Agreed - it has to be worth £2.50+.

[ifaze] 05/5/2023 15:14

I wouldn't want a bid at the moment - anywhere near current price

[topvest] 05/5/2023 14:42

This is looking well set for recovery and / or a possible bid in my view. One of the few stocks that could out-perform forecasts next year in a very choppy market. A China sales recovery is looking probable.

[wad collector] 28/3/2023 10:46

Thanks for your thoughts. The whole "market expectations" has always been a cop-out as it is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, unless the company reports a EBITA themselves.
Disappointing to see recent share price gains undone again , it seems to be a recurring pattern in the last 9 months.

[cerrito] 26/3/2023 11:15

I need to remind the company how unhelpful it is for all retail investors when they say that they are trading above or below market expectations without the company specifying their understanding of what market expectations are. The more of you who can write in the better.
I see that last November after the interims Singers forecast revenue for this FY at £82.4m, adjusted ebitda at £6.8m and adjusted PBT at £3.9m. No idea what their other joint broker Investec had-Incidentally good that they do not have 3 joint brokers as they have said goodbye to Peel Hunt. Singers have not put an update on Research Tree following last week's RNS and perhaps have not done one.
I would encourage people to read the ED report as they have given good background info on the R&D programme and the Chinese pig market.
I could not locate what they forecast before but now have £84.7m in revenue and 7m in adjusted ebitda for this current FY.
They point out that the implication of this full year forecast is that the current HY is v good with £49.8m revenue-well down on the record £64m in the six months to March 2021 but if it comes to pass will be the second highest six month revenue figure of all time.
ED correctly identify the Chinese risk - and indeed not sure if any of you heard the aggressive questioning of the TikTok CEO on The Hill earlier this week - both as a supplier and a customer. I continue with the view which may be Naive that the interests of EAH and the CCP for plentiful pork are aligned.
There is also the product concentration risk in Aivlosin.
I have mentioned before that with current exchange rates and share prices, they in theory are a takeover target. ED tells us that they are the 3rd largest player in the swine/poultry antibiotics market and the 15th largest globally in the animal health industry which is dominated by 5 global players.
I see ED have come out with forecasts for the next 23/24FY with adjusted Ebitda rising to £7.8m still was down from the annus mirabilis of 20/21 when it was £17.8m.
I checked the recent TR1's to see how the shareholder register has changed. We have seen Schroders go up now to 15.1pc from the 6.41pc at 30.6.22, helping Danske reduce from 6.14pc to 2. 73pc and AXA from 12.14pc to 9.9pc.
I am long and badly wrong here and after this kicking of the tyres doubt if I will buy or sell if the price meanders in the 90/125p area.

[edmonda] 24/3/2023 12:06

"Positive surprises in year-end trading update" - new detailed research report with audio summary here:

Eco’s pre-close trading update confirms revenue and EBITDA are ahead of current market expectations for FY23 that had previously anticipated modest growth relative to FY22. The better-than-expected results are being driven by an unexpectedly strong final quarter for Aivlosin in China combined with continued growth in South/Southeast Asia and Latin America.

We now expect FY23 sales of £84.7m and an adjusted EBITDA of £7.0m based on our interpretation of the statement.

With an EV of £66m, Eco currently trades on an EV/sales ratio of ~0.78 and EV/EBITDA of 9.4 – both well below norms for the animal health sector.

[topvest] 23/3/2023 09:32

A nice update. Next year should hopefully be even better as China recovers!

[wad collector] 23/3/2023 08:05

Like the TU;


The ECO Group has experienced strong trading in its final quarter and it is clear that the demand for Aivlosin has been a little stronger than expected in China and Asia. As a result, the Board now expects that Revenue and Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation will be slightly ahead of market expectations for the current financial year.

David Hallas, CEO, noted that "Our business has delivered good progress in key international markets especially Asia. We look forward to providing a further update following the completion of the financial year."