Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 28/9/2024 07:09

To make those whole that took 2022 placing shares the price needs to be closer to 63p for real inflation at 8% for 2 years. They should be breathing down the necks of management.

A great shame they can't move on GMP as that is a choke point company imho.
Perhaps I'm wrong but it looks very useful to the whole global media landscape with some talented people and AI/ML plans and capabilities.

This at least is useful, can help block competition, emphasis (CAPITALISED) mine: "Connected to the MediaPath Acquisition, the Company has entered into heads of terms with GMP Systems AB (provider of GMP365) in relation to a new technology partnership agreement........and will include updated licensing terms, providing Ebiquity with an EXCLUSIVE, GLOBAL and PERPETUAL licence to use the MediaPath Premium Services as well as enhanced data, security and commercial rights."

Delivery matters, just re-read it, performance lagging.

"The Company expects to have sufficient cash headroom in 2025 to satisfy the deferred consideration for MML expected to be at least £3.0 million."

"The Board expects the Acquisitions to deliver meaningful margin expansion and improved operational efficiency for the Enlarged Group through MediaPath's proprietary technology platform and MML's cost synergies that can deliver significant economies of scale."

They have no time to waste and the CFO choice and decision to jump ship certainly hasn't helped but the interim man came across as clean and no non-sense. It might help if they can recruit along those lines.

[p1nkfish] 27/9/2024 17:42

Look at todays volume with some delayed. Fingers crossed not far off removing the seller overhang. About 6.3M changed hands. Decent, might be the clearing event for JO Hambro (Perpetual) and the 2 others that slipped below 3% in the past few months.

The biggest problem here is execution.
They have so much going for them if only they can drive the efficiency up.

Deloitte are now strong in AI/ML. They could take this and put clear white water between it and any potential competitor without losing it's independent badge.

I must be missing something.

[simon gordon] 27/9/2024 15:19

53p would make investors whole who came in on the 2022 placing.

Deloitte buy companies like sweeties.

[p1nkfish] 27/9/2024 15:16

A really interesting point - APAC comments. China opening stimulus gates and EBQ well placed.

US a disappointment, needs sorting out.

[p1nkfish] 27/9/2024 15:15

it's relatively cheap at this price.

[p1nkfish] 27/9/2024 15:13

Trade sale, yes.

PE or, my preferred, Deloitte.

Likes of Deloitte tick lots of boxes. Global, independent, service offer etc.

[simon gordon] 27/9/2024 15:02

The CEO talked about going on a war footing due to competition. Their balance sheet is the Achilles heel in such a war. One of their larger competitors could buy GMP and screw them.

There are just too many weaknesses. I think they will probably have to sell themselves. Time is not a great healer for them.

[p1nkfish] 27/9/2024 14:55

Severe problem imho if it fell into the wrong hands.

[simon gordon] 27/9/2024 13:52

p1nk,

They probably couldn't afford to buy it until 2026/7. What would happen if one of their competitors bought it?

Thanks for additional info on the data sources and how it is applicable.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 20:33

Getting the Benchmarking platform fully prepared - watch the fidgeting 48 mins in on the Vimeo video. There is discomfort there.

GMP would be a real jewel to own imho. Revenue of approximately SEK 38 million in 2023, operating profit (EBIT) for 2023 was around SEK 2 million, with a net profit of SEK 929,000. About 20 employees as of the most recent reporting period. It's growing.

Would gibe EBQ a real edge.

Pick it up for < £7M. Low end would be about £3.5M.
Really like the look of that little company.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 19:07

Certainly not the same but I think along the lines of Jim Simons, he has clever folk but to start he needed old market data. Early on they had a trawl back over time to get a dataset, without that he would have been blind.

EBQ is totally different but the basic principle is the same.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 19:03

SG, all the data has one thing in common, it's from the past. Hence not replicable unless you get the same feeds referenced to the same point in time.

The sources are various and will change in importance over time:

Media Agencies and Clients
Third-Party Data Providers
Ad-Tech Platforms
Direct Access to Publishers and Broadcasters
Social Media Platforms
Proprietary Research and Surveys

"By pooling data from these diverse sources, Ebiquity creates a comprehensive view of media performance, enabling clients to optimize their advertising strategies."

This is a moat as you can't go back in time. Starting today to do the same won't do it.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 18:57

A good match to these might be a specialist PE group. The average price over the past 3 months + 40%. If you believe better times are around the corner and scalability in place then now is a great time to pounce imho.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 18:50

From what I can see they get a lot of their data from agencies.

Thanks for the info on GMP365,

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 18:27

Just to make it clear EBQ are not geared to collect data off Smart TV. They are a consultant/adviser.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 18:01

GMP365 is a product platform from a Swedish Company.
EBQ subscribe and paid for some customisation.
Would be great if EBQ owned them. They would be my target.

"During the period the Group entered into trading transactions with GMP Systems AB. In the period the Group incurred development fees, which were capitalised to Research and Development intangibles assets amounting to £143,000 (30 June 2023: £nil). The Group also incurred subscription fees for GMP 365, which were expensed to the profit and loss account, to the amount of £679,000 (30 June 2023: £384,000). GMP Systems AB is a related party through the Group's Chief Delivery Officer, Susanne Elias. "

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 17:55

SG, the data is from previous impressions captured at a moment in time by their systems/process. Its unique.
Buried in there are hidden gems that can add predictive value. The data can't be "guessed at" or replicated (unless someone steals it) unless a competitor was also collecting and logging at that moment in time and I dare to say no one else was. If they have useful data, going back in time, and they use it well, it is a moat.

EBQ have a lot going for them if they get to execute efficiently and then scale up without having to balloon the headcount.

Now, precisely what that data compromises is probably sensitive and EBQ are unlikely to advertise exactly what they have but in best case you can mine it to determine trends, inferences and use it to "tweak" approaches to market to optimise outcomes. You mine it with AI type tools.

Over time I can easily imagine new digital services enabling the collection of "extra" data that all helps with predictive capabilities. If anything it puts me off getting a Smart TV. Creepy tech.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 17:54

GM365 is a mouthful. Do you have any idea what the TAM is for this product?

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 17:34

Good presentation.

They had 26 or 28 open recs for heads but mentioned £700K set for severance. Now down to about 24 open so some roles filled.

Ties in with a change from service provision heads to hunting heads (as GMP365 more widely adopted) and headcount peak may be behind them in the next 6 months or so. That should help improve the operational gearing. If scalability is in place with reduced fixed costs it can only help the bottom line and attacking of net debt.

Much as I would have expected but delayed transformation. At least Nic Waters was honest as to where some of the blame lies in having a period of more inward focus by management as they rolled out changes so missed some potential wins.

He fidgeted a bit too much on the question of what would be left over into 2026 for the transformation. He said 80% done by then. Why fidget?

Interim CFO was no nonsense. Good.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 16:40

If Perpetual wants fully out that's 5.4m shares. If you see a puke like that it could be the buy point if no other big holders want out.

Can you explain why they talk about their data lake so much, is it exclusive, can the competition not access this data off the web?

The CEO comes across as smart and is making them into a data facing company. SYS1 went through that sort of change and the shares have soared as they proved it up. Though they didn't carry debt.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 16:27

Thank you SG.
I can believe that message.
Market wants proof that it's not just debt fuelled and can cope with slowing conditions as a backdrop.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 16:11

Just finished watching today's presentation - here's a link:




Overall message, the business has never been in a stronger position to scale up.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 16:00

Agreed and whatever they said in today's presentation had zero impact.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 13:58

It looks like it will go into a coma once the overhang has cleared. Wonder how low it could go.

IMC next week will be an interesting watch.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 10:27

Not surprised on the debt front given the expansion in global operations and headcount globally.