Ebiquity Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 26/9/2024 10:17

Forecast changes from Panmure:

EPS
-24: 4.4p from 5.7p

-25: 5.5p from 6.9p

-26: 6.6p from 8.2p


Net Debt
-24: 16m from 8.4m

-25: 13.1m from 4.1m

-26: 6.1m (no change)

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 10:11

They put it in writing "........the Company is now well set for scalable growth into 2025 and beyond."

They also recognised there is a chance some of the expected H2 revenue might slip into H1 2025 due to the large number of new assignments won - a better reason than most.

"Following a challenging first half of the year we believe we have turned the corner. The effort put into a re-vitalised new business and marketing drive is bearing fruit. A large number of new assignments has been won in Q2 leading to improving revenue in H2, with further new business opportunities pending. The challenge has shifted from winning the business to delivering secured revenue and converting live opportunities. There is a risk that some of this new revenue will slip from 2024 into Q1 2025. The radical change to the operating model has now been implemented and the turbulence created is largely behind us. The re-designed organisation, with technology roll out well advanced, and a commitment to innovation means the Company is now well set for scalable growth into 2025 and beyond.

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 07:22

May need to be a clearing event to remove the overhang from the sellers that have been reducing.

How long to churn through their volume?

[p1nkfish] 26/9/2024 07:08

Suspect the ship is turning, need to read again more slowly but first impression is greater stability is fast approaching with increased predictability.

Good to read better explanations of their use of AI and usefulness, as a moat, of the data pools.

If they can stay on the straight and narrow focusing on profitable growth I think the bottom is in (TBD with hindsight). Some company has to do what EBIQUITY does on a global scale and they have the seat. Anyone else wanting the seat at the same scale will have a hard time and won't get there for less than the cost of a multiple of the current valuation of EBQ.

[simon gordon] 25/9/2024 15:49

"Pretty sure AI-Agents will become mainstream like websites over the next 5-10 years."

Great point.

AI whisperers are making good money. Graduates in English, Logic or Linguistics.

Open Source - 12/4/24:

Prompt engineering is the art of asking the right question to get better output from a generative AI model. Well-defined prompts can generate high-quality AI content.

[p1nkfish] 25/9/2024 15:40

D-Day tomorrow.

[p1nkfish] 24/9/2024 08:37

I think some of the Freelancer Platforms might benefit as Agents become prime time and need developing and customising. A 4th or 5th layer beneficiary as more Freelancers are engaged. I don't hear much talk about this potential.

Pretty sure AI-Agents will become mainstream like websites over the next 5-10 years.

I'm hoping EBQ will survive this as there will be some thrown under the bus and find their market has shifted or gone and it could happen quickly. Can they prove they will be a beneficiary?

[simon gordon] 24/9/2024 07:03

Yeah, too complex for me. To try and understand what's happening in EBQs space I think I would need to attend trade shows and conferences.

[p1nkfish] 24/9/2024 06:20

It's complex!

Have been looking for adoptees that will see a productivity boost and also the 3rd and 4th layer that are critical to roll-out such as cooling, interconnect etc.

Outside of the obvious it's hard to determine who will be top and bottom line beneficiaries and unencumbered by massive cap-ex to get there.

They do exist, just finding them (outside of the over valued obvious) is not easy.

Also looking for those that hold and can generate useful data, collecting that data. In time the tools to mine the data will be pennies, the depth of clean and appropriate data will be critical and valuable - such as in the return on spend in advertising.

That is one achilles heel of the likes of IQGEO - the data is not theirs.

[simon gordon] 24/9/2024 05:58

p1nk,

This is an interesting piece on Agentic AI:



I have gone off the whole software-related sector. Decided to focus on hi-tech manufacturing.

[p1nkfish] 24/9/2024 05:47

Perpetual/JO Hambro are a cap on the price as they reduce, not to mention others that have transitioned to < 3% holdings and may be looking to clear-out. Perpetual now down to 3.963%, 5,420,000 voting rights.

A guesstimate is there is of the order of 7M-10M to clear to refresh the share holder register, about £2M of buys imho, approx at 25p.

Good to see ebiquity front and centre 1/2 way down this page as a partner of GMP,

Note their developments in AI including a future agent. What is EBQ's strategy? Does anyone know where they have spelt it out?

EBQ need to spell out the strategy clearly so investors can appraise it and then decide if there is a bright, or no, future. They either grasp it or have others attack parts of their market with it and find the ground shift beneath their feet, spending more time defending than attacking and dominating.

[p1nkfish] 21/9/2024 08:31

Approx 500K shares traded 19th reported late yesterday, 20th.
All relatively close in time suggests a single buyer?
I don't know what late reported trades infer.

[p1nkfish] 19/9/2024 14:24

Well there is a chance to offer up questions on IMC for the 2nd Oct.
"pleased" used in the RNS release announcing it, TBD if it is so pleasing.
If we see some share interest prior it would be interesting.
Is it massively oversold or about right?

[p1nkfish] 17/9/2024 03:56

All time low was about 14.5p in September 2002.
Could it crash back to there if the forecast run out to end of 2024 is shocking and doesnt meet the 80% coverage expectation? It should do > 80%.

Would like to see some management commitment via share purchases in market after results. Lack of such will tell us everything.

[p1nkfish] 16/9/2024 11:29

As of 30/8 there were 72.92% of voting rights in the hands of 3%+ holders. Around May 2024 it was 73.51%. Hence 0.5% reduction of voting rights in the hand of 3%+ holders. Not that bad at all.

The latest holder update is dated 30/8, a week after the 22/8 TU update and price crash.

Did we have notifications from CRUX, HERALD OR MARTIN CURIE that have all fallen to < 3%? All should have notified as they have all gone through a % boundary.

[p1nkfish] 15/9/2024 14:47

Have gone over my reasons for investing here and still remains that Ebiquity is unique in full service offering across media auditing and multichannel analytics - independent and global. Others overlap in areas but none that I can see across all offerings as a one stop shop. Top tier customer base.

The big issue is extracting value from that above costs of delivery. A massive efficiency drive is needed. How they can accept the delays in the transformation and roll-out of GMP365 is beyond me. CEO walked away with > £800K last year followed by the roll-out delays this year, recent warning for the full year vs expectations and a CFO who lasted < 2 years supposedly moving on for fresh opportunities.

FFS get a grip, get results, or do the right thing and move out of the way in favour of someone more able to drive the bus and at least able to pick a reliable CFO.

If these next set of results are poorer than 2022 (taking account of dilution and any extra debt) I hope the major shareholders have a hissy fit and agitate for change for the better.

[p1nkfish] 13/9/2024 13:23

You get less of what you tax. If they want less capital formation that's what we'll get.

[red ninja] 13/9/2024 12:41

Fears over the results, but also maybe selling to take loses to offset profit elsewhere to reduce CGT.

I think we could see more selling of stocks generally as we approach the end of October as many pundits seem to think Labour will go and raise CGT.

It's not clear that this will increase the CGT raised, or in fact be good for UK stock markets and the country in general, but its something that Labour can't resist doing.

[p1nkfish] 12/9/2024 16:11

If results come in not much above £71.2M then its not unreasonable to expect heads to roll. Someone has really dropped the ball and how can they avoid a downsize given the debt if they don't exhibit much if any growth. Debt based growth (or lack of growth) has had its day.

I would hope they come in at least equal to 2022 revenue and forecast full recovery and back on track for FY25 at £89M+.

"From the TU, EBQ have > 80% contract coverage for the annual target, > £71.2M.
H1 = £37.9M, 42.6% of the £89M annual forecast & 60% of that covered by contract.
H2 = £33.3M should be in the bag to meet the 80% coverage of £71.2M.
Shortfall to make up to achieve £89M = £17.8M worse case - a stretch to say the least."

[p1nkfish] 12/9/2024 16:00

Not looking too healthy on the price. Volume and value not massive but have to wonder if sellers might have an inkling of the final size of the results miss. I'm of the opinion it's falling back to 2022 but I might be overly optimistic.

Very annoying after CEO picked up > £800K last year. OK if they deliver reliable results but it's far too "adjusted" and unreliable. Shareholder return does not appear to be front and centre to this BoD.

[p1nkfish] 11/9/2024 21:29

ValueTrack trade marked in 2024.

"Platform as a Service featuring software platforms for measurement, tracking and reporting of media performance and media buying performance; providing online, non-downloadable software for measurement, tracking and reporting of media performance and media buying performance."





2024 has had two trade mark registrations and the first since 2018.

Media Data Vault and ValueTrack.

[p1nkfish] 02/9/2024 10:08

AI can be really useful to help all layers in a customer, from front to back office, gain the same insights quickly without needing a degree in maths or exel - have seen that happen. Querying company systems with language prompts that deliver understandable human centric graphical outputs. When done properly it's marvellous. Can help quickly identify when things are heading off track, with much lower latency than legacy systems. It does need digitisation across the business stages though.

Let's hope this bunch have something up their sleeve,