Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[tradingworldnow] 17/11/2017 23:25

ssr23, what are you on about, one minute you're in, next min you're saying resign.

Make your mind up.

[silkstag] 17/11/2017 15:54

There seems to be an irked seller hoping in vain for 16.75p, going on and off the offer behind another seller at 16.75p. He should take 16p to 16.5p now as it will not be there next week. Heading for 15p then 10p then on to 4p by October 2019,
Ssr says the cash will last to 2020. No. The losses will mushroom and the disaster round @4p will happen in 2 not 3 years. imho. dyor

[silkstag] 17/11/2017 15:48

Ssr, agreed, Uberoi should go immediately and his planned +£9m turbo-bloat of overheads with multiple office openings should be cancelled. New management, whenever they take charge, will have to shut them down, pay redundancy to their occupants and lease break fees etc. Would save £9m pa and c£10m one-off to stop this hubris now.
New management can instead axe overheads by -£10m pa. But it seems anyone who voices concern mysteriously is no longer of any use to Mr Uberoi.
4 of the 7 execs photographed in 2016 EPO report & accounts disappeared. That is a heck of a lot for 1 year. The majority (4 of 7) squealed down the gangplank. The insider majority know the business model is falling apart.
imho. dyor

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 14:59

EPO not mentioned in the article. So the guess is EPO not involved.

It’s all negative atm. Maybe Uberoi should resign and let someone else take over. His plan does not seem to be working.

[renixus1] 17/11/2017 14:18

I know it's fledgling but are we sure EPO's not exposed to this.



An article on their websiite date Jan 2017 said this as a highlight.

"In addition, in April 2016 Earthport executed the first cross-border payment transaction received via distributed ledger for Santander UK, enabling it to become the first UK bank to use distributed ledger technology (DLT) for cross-border payments globally – a significant milestone and proof-point in the maturity of the technology."

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 14:07

The problem with SS is his out of this world predictions and continuous scare mongering.

I have managed to look at the numbers in a bit more detail from the last RNS and I can tell you EPO are not doing great. Although they keep banging on about it being oversubscribed I doubt if all institutions like Ruffer participated. In fact I think Ruffer reduced their holdings over the last year. This is why I have been very cautious.

The business model requires huge volumes to go through the network and it’s a give away that if they need £70+m to break even then they have to do a lot of work to get there.

However they are not giving up. The new funds should last them to 2020. Given the rate of growth so far it may well be a big challenge to hit the £70m. Therefore if you not willing to wait and take the risk then sell up and seek your fortune elsewhere. The rest will have to wait with no guarantee of success and expect a bumpy ride. As with any small companies the share price can be extremely volatile so one must tread carefully. 4p prediction from SS is crazy. If there is no news from now until Jan the share price is like to drift South. In January, if the interims show the revenue of £40m is on target then share price may recover otherwise imo I’m afraid the will be more pain for shareholders.

IMHO DYOR.

[silkstag] 17/11/2017 13:55

Ssr, post 13905 shows the valuation at point 6 (below as requested):
----------
Death spiral 1) EPO fy17 forecast +£20m profit on £55m turnover. EPO actual -£12m loss on £30m turnover. Massive misses. Like fy14, fy15 and fy16.

Death spiral 2) EPO covered up loss in H2FY17 was -£9 2m. By far worst in its dire history.

Death spiral 3) Average revenue per transaction has been falling at -25% pa. Brutal or bungling? Dire either way.

Death spiral 4) £26m overheads should be axed -£10m. Management announced they will turbo-bloat them by +£9m.

Death spiral 5) Majority of management from 2016 report & accounts resigned in 1 year. Rats squealing down the gangplank before the Earthtanic sinks.

Death spiral 6) Fy17 £30.3m turnover was split £1.5m consultancy (worth x1); e£12m fx (worth x1); e£8m money transfers (to keep. Worth x2), e£8.8m loss-making money transfers (need to terminate. Worth x0). Office closing, redundancy and restructuring will burn -£10m cash (worth x-1). £15m inevitable restructuring losses (worth x-1). Maybe £5m cash left (worth x1). If fixed EPO today, worth c£35m = 6p per share. Business model disaster.

Death spiral 7) Cash is not 'invested' in EPO, it is thrown on the profligate USA virgin CEO cash BBQ.

MANDATORY SELL. Heading for 15p then 10p then 4p. And 10 for 1 share consolidation.
All imho. Dyor

[tradingworldnow] 17/11/2017 13:39

silkstag I have a question:

If you are so confident about how to run a business, this business, since you are always on here, why are you not on there, why dont you talk and call all shareholders up and present yourself as the person to make things happen.

If you did, I would ask:

How can you make changes without damaging the 40m revenuer we have?
How can you make changes whilst growing the business?

Its a serious question, cuts are cuts, like the tory party, but you have to also invest.

So, are you prepared to step up ad take over as CEO?

[tradingworldnow] 17/11/2017 13:22

yawn I see silkstag is talking trash after trash

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 13:07

“By Oct 2019 the cash will mostly be burned and there will be redundancy and restructuring costs, about half of transaction revenue will have to be terminated. 625m new shares @4p will value EPO at £50m pist money, which is plenty high enough for a disaster round with new management. 10 for 1 share consolidation needed.”

Any one can make wild predictions. You are making a fool of yourself. You have no credibility.

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 11:40

How do you get your 4p prediction? You are silly SS.

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 11:37

Lol. The usual trash, copy paste post.

[silkstag] 17/11/2017 11:34

Massive seller overhang is waiting to see if they get any help from a 'dead cat bounce'. I assume little volune will be done that way.

Ssr skates over the scale of EPO woes. In Oct 2016, EPO forecast H2fy17 would reach breakeven and eveything EPO did would be committed to focus on achieving that goal. Obviously the business model failed (yet again) but to cover it up in spring 2017 EPO said it is going great and we chose instead to focus on growth in h2fy17. When the market found out that h2fy17 was by far the largest loss in EPO's dire history at -£9.2m, savvy investors realised EPO lied in the spring, to cover its failure tracks. EPO business model failed and that is why the loss mushrooned.

So the scale of the loss, EPO getting busted for lying about it, and the average transaction fee falling another -15% are three fundamental reasons to SELL before it gets worse. The bloated £26m overheads soaring +£9m instead of being axed -£10m is a fourth reason.

The failure risk on the fundamenrals greatly increased. Real damage done.
Business model failed. Trust bust.

By Oct 2019 the cash will mostly be burned and there will be redundancy and restructuring costs, about half of transaction revenue will have to be terminated. 625m new shares @4p will value EPO at £50m pist money, which is plenty high enough for a disaster round with new management. 10 for 1 share consolidation needed.

This is what I expect by October 2019. 4p is a realistic price in this business model crash scenario.

MANDATORY SELL.
all imho. Dyor

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 10:59

Accept you lose some and move on. EPO is not you.

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 10:57

Silkstag is quiet today. Probably unhappy because the share price has gone up. His happy days are when EPO share price goes down. Why are you so bitter?

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 09:57

I can understand the frustration from a number of investors and can see why Uberoi is not trusted. EG in the placing RNS he said revenue for q1 2018 was in line with market expectations then only to change it to “broadly”; in line with management expectations in the results RNS. The interpretation of this is obvious.

Uberoi doesn’t help himself by doing this but then again many CEOs do this. There is an art in fully understanding RNS’s.

A nice little tick up today. No real news from now on until Jan 18 when the interims come out.

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 08:37

Having read through the results again there was no mention of the 143 pipeline opportunities whereas it did on the trading update.

Investors hate it when CEO’s ramp up the business before a fund raise only afterwards to be muted in their confidence.

Sounds like I am agreeing with the c*nt. Unlike him I think if EPO can hit the revenue targets in the next three years then EPO can become a viable business otherwise I cannot see how the Institutional investors can continue to support Uberoi.

I said before this is a long term punt. It still is and we have to wait a few more years before we can say if EPO can be a self sustaining profitable business.

GLA. IMO. DYOR.

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 06:45

If CEO’s miss targets they nearly always get severely punished. Although metrics on a number of fronts are improving the biggest disappointment was that they missed the break even forecast. Although the reasons they gave are justifiable many investors are not willing to wait further. EPO have now shifted the break even point to another few years down the line and in the Chairman’s statement where he said the investment now will bear fruit in a few years time did not go down too well. To some this is unacceptable especially as Uberoi has been at the helm for 7 years and said profit would be achieved by now. You only have to read SS’s (cu*t) posts to see how bitter some punters are. This is the principle reason why so may private investors are throwing in the towel. It appears there is very little demand for EPO share and while this continues it’s hard to see how there can be any recovery. So whilst the price keep going down those of us who believe EPO will make it one day can continue to build their stake in small amounts as EPO gets cheaper. AIM shares as we all know can easy capitulate with bad news or sometimes no news. Uberoi has a big job in returning confidence. SS’s forecast of 4p is just ridiculous especially because the company is well funded. However with little appetite from investors no one really knows where it will bottom out. Last year after the Baydonhill loss it went to around 11p. Will it get there again?

[ssr23] 17/11/2017 06:44

If CEO’s miss targets they nearly always get severely punished. Although metrics on a number of fronts are improving the biggest disappointment was that they missed the break even forecast. Although the reasons they gave are justifiable many investors are not willing to wait further. EPO have now shifted the break even point to another few years down the line and in the Chairman’s statement where he said the investment now will bear fruit in a few years time did not go down too well. To some this is unacceptable especially as Uberoi has been at the helm for 7 years and said profit would be achieved by now. You only have to read SS’s (cu*t) posts to see how bitter some punters are. This is the principle reason why so may private investors are throwing in the towel. It appears there is very little demand for EPO share and while this continues it’s hard to see how there can be any recovery. So whilst the price keep going down those of us who believe EPO will make it one day can continue to build their stake in small amounts as EPO gets cheaper. AIM shares as we all know can easy capitulate with bad news or sometimes no news. Uberoi has a big job in returning confidence. SS’s forecast of 4p is just ridiculous especially because the company is well funded. However with little appetite from investors no one really knows where it will bottom out. Last year after the Baydonhill loss it went to around 11p. Will it get there again?

[nimrod22] 16/11/2017 17:00

Silk Stag, I'm not that negative long term on EPO, just don't see the upside in the near future other than trying to catch upturns to make a few quid. If it hits 20 on the RSI I will buy in for the bounce. Long term there should be a future for EPO, though not right now, barring some substantial good news release. Who knows, its all a bit of a game, some you win some you loose.

[ssr23] 16/11/2017 16:21

Private investors buying and selling at the moment.

Worry if any of the fund managers start selling.

Long term prospects have not changed one iota.

Gla.

[silkstag] 16/11/2017 12:27

Only 1 non-MM bid and that is only 10k shares @16p. 16p likely disapoears soon. Maybe a few days suppirt @15p, maybe not. Heading for 10p. Trust, business model and confidence bust. Imho

[silkstag] 16/11/2017 12:27

Need new management. Stop turbo-bloat overheads. Throw axe. Imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 16/11/2017 11:06

Feels like seller overhang is frustrated by lack of buyer appetite at this price level. Needs to fall another 6p to attract in mugs and traders. I respect the latter.
Savvy sellers will shift what they can at 16p. It could go up on thin volume if they stay away a day or few but they wont sell any volume. Better to shift volume ahead of the crowd.
Don't hope for or be fooled by a 'dead cat bounce'. No use to you.
Imho. Dyor