Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[alchemy] 19/12/2017 14:22

Don't buy.

[silkstag] 19/12/2017 14:02

Some punters are buying on the uptick, hoping it's not so bad. Sad. Fairly sure this is a 'dead cat bounce' and the next bit of hidden bad news will leap out and garrote them. Imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 19/12/2017 11:45

Will EPO's h1fy18 loss be a record 6 month disaster and by how much?
H2fy17 loss was-£9.2m. Off a cliff. By far the worst so far.

Will H1fy18 loss be -£10m, -£12m, -£14m or worse? Prior to yesterday's downgrade I expected -£10m and had already worked out that growth rate was declining in H2fy17. But I now expect H1fy18 to report a loss of -£12m. This is -2p per share of value destroyed.

As to fy18 and fy19 I now downgrade total losses from -£40m to -£45m. Thus -7.5p ps value destroyed.

If a new CEO is hired in 4 months who sacks the current board and axes all Uberoi's bloated costs then I'll factor in a -£15m restructuring loss (-2.5p ps value hit) and adjust the expectation.

But it seems Uberoi is still really in charge so a new CEO will likely be another tired poodle, to join the poodle parlour already at the board.

STRONG SELL at 10p. Overhang of value hits. Target price 3p in 20 months.
All imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 22:16

This sector has been hot for Uberoi's entire CEO tenure 2010-17. But 10p share price is rightly back to the start. 7 years in a row of:
1) false imminent breakeven promises.
2) multiple late earnings downgrades apparently in breach of AiM rule 11 to con imvestors.
3) wild losses e.g. -£9.2m just in h2fy17.
4) senior management resignations e.g. 4 of 7 in past year.
5) bloated overheads x5 to £26m and going x7 to £35m by Fy19.
6) Crashing average revenue per transaction -25% pa from fy15 £4.78 to fy16 £3.12 to fy17 £2.68. Heading for £1.12 by fy23. Huge threat to solvency. Maybe death sentence.
7) Share dilution x7.

Trust is bust and shareholder value is destroyed. No new CEO or team in sight. Only cosmetic change today. Overhang of filthy news and broken holders wanting out.

Falling knife will slice to 8p then drift to 3p and 1 for 10 share consolidation in next 18-22 months.

MANDATORY SELL. Maybe invest in 3p rescue round.
All imho. Dyor

[renixus1] 18/12/2017 17:19

Who saw this coming!?! Ok ok, a few perhaps :)It's going to take one hell of a CEO to sort this out but not impossible. If they are sticking with traditional methods then they are not really at the races and would be better off marrying their strengths with the weaknesses on the digital / tech side, namely compliance and keeping the transfer business clean....I am really surprised (although it's always the way) that regulation hits the compliant hardest but allows wholly unclean transfer methods (or at least they don't need to prove cleanness) to develop under their noses. There's got to be an opportunity there somewhere.This is one of the hottest sectors (cross border payments and ancilliary services) to be in right now, it's just unfortunate for EPO that they lost their footing on their way to the party. Some businesses do recover from that but it generally takes some genius to deliver and a lot of tough decisions.

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 17:03

ssr23 6 Oct '17 - 14:49 - 13415: "Get a life Silkstag. You are a complete loser. Have you got nothing better to do than to spend your life writing negative posts on EPO. You are insane. This company will do great".

[jailbird] 18/12/2017 12:10

WW,I will be honest , I have no researched deeper since I sold out.I keep it on radar to see if the Co may turnaround its outlook but it is going backwards The business model is currently not delivering and it could be Brexit is having an impact on decisions that canoe does use this technology

[wigwammer] 18/12/2017 11:45

Hi jailbird,I'd be interested in your view, and if you have knowledge of the industry would you mind having a look at my question?Many thanks

[jailbird] 18/12/2017 11:24

Oh dear...The bulls have gone quiet, have you become bears yet?What are your views now .?

[wigwammer] 18/12/2017 11:21

Anyone with knowledge of EPO know what this might mean for eservglobal/Homesend?It seems the latter are making decent progress and the market is buoyant, but this may be because they have MasterCard backing.What sort of % do EPO charge on a transaction? Half a percent?

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 09:10

With a large single day fall some traders may be tempted to buy @10p as a short-term punt. The problem is that there is a massive seller overhang, bust trust and further price correction needed to 8p tnen slide to 4p.
There is also plenty more fowl news hidden up EPO's sleeve (or back passage, which is where their communication comes from). With hostile fundamentals, bust trust, seller and fowl news overhangs, this looks like a flawed punt @10p. Imho. Dyor

[ssr23] 18/12/2017 08:20

This is my last post here. Good bye.

[ssr23] 18/12/2017 08:19

The warning signs were there. Phew. I am so relieved I sold out after the results.

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 08:15

House broker Singer is on bid @8p. 8p is tbe stage 1 price correction I posted was required. Then EPO will slide toward 4p and 10 for 1 share consolidation as fy18 and fy19 total losses exceed -£40m, and rescue funding is needed. imho. Dyor

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 08:07

Opened @10p. Seller overhang rightly lost patience. Imho

[silkstag] 18/12/2017 08:04

A seller went on orderbook offering 22k shares @12p and MMs ran away from the bid to 11p. Seller removed his offer in frustration. Massive seller overhang. Get out asap. Imho

[caradog] 18/12/2017 07:41

CEO becomes executive chairman and chairman becomes temporary CEO? That’s a new one!

I have never seen such an incoherent argument for a board change. I suspect that the institutional backers have had enough. They were suckered into a rights issue in a company that claimed to have 11 million in cash only days before worse than expected results were announced, and within a month saw the value of their new investment drop by a quarter.

I still can’t understand why Uberoi’s new job title includes the word “executiveR21;.

[ssr23] 18/12/2017 07:27

ISAREADY - do you finally accept you got this wrong? An apology from you would be welcome to both me and Silkstag.