Earthport Share Discussion Threads

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 13:01

Lying troll.

[silkstag] 14/11/2017 12:59

Ssr is taken in by management misleading adjustments and faulty inconsistent metric selection. imho

[quipper1] 14/11/2017 12:38

Thats funny.

Post 13864 totally goes against silkstags own advice in 2013.
What an idiot.

Silkstag said in 2013 , BH would be a great acquisition, a great value enhancing acquisition to the earthport group and there was no reason to split it. Why why split it when you know its 12m revenue, its app part of the group and a clever acquisition.

Silkstag said EPO purchased BH cheaply with limited revenue
They have grown revenue to 12m, yet silkstag now says its a poor buy.

You're like a TV salesman silkstag, today you are right because you said you were right, tomorrow, you are right, even though you contradict yourself. What a plonker.

x1 purchase, not if you we look at your own advice.

SilkStag - 01 Oct 2013 - 10:38:41 - 9640 of 13779 EPO with Charts & News - EPO
once the baydonhill acquisition goes unconditional in c18 days I predict that the house brokers will issue an EPO analyst note updating for 30-6-13 and forecasts for 2014, along with a BUY recommendation, augmented by the triple whammy value-add from this modestly priced acquisition.

SilkStag - 29 Nov 2013 - 12:31:44 - 9740 of 13250 EPO with Charts & News - EPO

BP, EPO bought Baydonhill very cheaply [£3.4m cash; plus from £1m to c£3m in earnout shares and £0-1.4m in earnout cash paid for out of target positive cashflow - or not issued or paid if not met] and if being part of the well-backed larger EPO group helps ramp BH revenue then that benefit will flow to EPO shareholders, aa does the benefit of having bought cheaply even if BH just grows slowly. My simple point is that BH is part of the group, I expect it to contribute significantly to valuation uplift, so it should be included.

But to help you set a combined revenue expectation, Charles Stanley 22-11-13 note says "Our [revenue] estimates for the full year now include seven months contribution for the newly acquired Baydonhill acquisition, which amounts to £2.7m for 2014 and £4.6m for 2015". CS say "we are not yet including any potential revenue synergies until we get greater clarity of its potential contribution" so I think those numbers are a fair base-point.

One can always work out the EPO-BH split from publsihed accounts (and house broker notes) but many shorters and small shareholders dont receive such things, and interim numbers or trading updates may not give full splits, so if we are betting again, it is fare to pick the combined number so there are no argumnets about who won the bet.

Since I have been bang-on in range with my revenue forecasts for both 2012 and 2013, you will understand I want clarity. As explained above, ramping group revenue is great for shareholders.

Shorters, tough luck, in addition to core revenue growth, BH will kick-up the group valuation as EPO bought it on such low valuation metrics!

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 12:20

FY17 Adjusted EBITDA2 loss decreased by 58% to £2.9 million (FY2016: £6.9 million)

Not there yet but getting there. Long way to go and patience required. I would rate this a BUY at this level.

GLA

[silkstag] 14/11/2017 12:06

EPO bought Baydonhill at a valuation of x1 turnover and it is wirth x1. Not the x4 implied market valuation. Management conceal the split of fx revenue for this reason but I estimate c£12m of the £30m in fy17. EPO must file the fx accounts at Companies House by 31 March 2018 and dirty EPO left it that late last year.

Valuation correction is £12m x3 = £36m ie -6p per EPO share.

In the unlikely event EPO recover all of the £5m it blundered, that woukd be worth +0.8p ps. Peanuts. The governance disaster of the blunder was the huge problem.

The share price needs to fall -6p now for the fx valuation error. It could rise +0.8p if the unlikely insurance claim succeeds in full.

Knife 1) This -6p fx price error is yet more downward pressure on the falling knife.
Knife 2) H2fy17 loss rocketed to -£9.2m. And this disaster was concealed from the market until after the Oct 17 rescue round, in breach if AiM rule 11.
Knife 3) Average revenue per transaction crashed -35% in fy16; another -15% in fy17; expect -20% in fy18.
Knife 4) overheads will turbo-bluat from £26m to £35m in fy18.
Knife 5) Dirty EPO management are busted for serially false forecasts and misleading the market with late downgrades and apparently deceitful trading statements concealing disasters.
Knife 6) increased losses will lead to disaster restructuring under new management in 2 years. Round @4p and 10 for 1 share consolidation.
Knife 7) Investor genocide. Again (2005 and 2010-17)!
Knife 8) Massive seller overhang now breakeven lie is exposed.
Knife 9) Confidence is broken. Rightly so.

MANDATORY SELL
imho. Dyor

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 10:22

Caradog - I can hear a dog barking in the background. Lol.

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 10:21

Let’s wait and see. At least it’s a start and the law enforcement agencies obviously take the view that there is a case to be answered for and so it is now with the CPS to decide to charge the people involved.

[caradog] 14/11/2017 10:06

ssr, proving a deliberate fraud is one thing. Getting the insurance company to pay up is another. Baydonhill should have had a robust system in place that prevented transactional fraud. The insurance company won’t cover carelessness, any more than they would pay out on your contents insurance if you left home without locking the door.

[silkstag] 14/11/2017 10:00

EPO losses took a 'leap' in 6 months to 30 June 2017; to -£9.2m. By far the worst in EPO dire history.

That -£9.2m in 6 months loss disaster was concealed from the market to pump the £25m rescue funding round. See loss trend in post 13853. Please think about that very carefully. Discuss the numbers with soneone independent of EPO. Ask them if EPO management are just investor-murdering bungling crooks?

EPO is taking another 'leap' in its overheads from £26m to £35m pa. That guarantees the wild losses cannot be contained.

EPO 'long-term plan' was to reach breakeven but it failed due to bloated overheads and average transaction revenue sliding -20% pa since fy16 as management went to lowball hell to cover up their failures. This is a tech-enabled sector so the teansaction price slide travellator will rip away EPO's margin every year.

Someone who invested $250,000 in EPO in 1998 (Ssr forgets it was around then) today has an EPO stake worth $192. Loss on EPO shares is 99.92%. Investor genocide.

EPO losses are mushrooming so share price is a falling knife toward 625m shares @4p round in October 2019, with 10 for 1 share consolidation, when it will have again ceased to be a going concern under current management.

From Oct 2019 new management will axe costs, shut the offices Uberoi is now opening, move city offices to low cost and pay areas for admin staff and terminate the most loss-making customer contracts. So turnover will be axed with costs in 2020.

The investors @4p in 2019 have a chance at a quick return on their 4p. Say x2 to 8p by 2022.

Current investors who hold or buy at 17p will have greatly increased losses and never escape from them.

MANDATORY SELL
All imho. Dyor.

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 09:44

BAYDONHILL £5m LOSS RECOVERY

“The negotiations to recover the loss we sustained in our Baydonhill (EarthportFX) subsidiary in February 2016 continue and in July this year, the file was passed to the Crown Prosecution Service by the Law Enforcement Agencies. We remain committed to the belief that there was a deliberate act by our customer to defraud us. This recent development will hopefully give more strength to our case with our insurers, but there can be no certainty about the likelihood, amount or timing of any recovery in connection with this loss.”

If successful then it could add another £5m in the company coffer.

[ssr23] 14/11/2017 07:58

EPO is a small company and it’s just about to take another leap in its growth trajectory. Like I said before there can be big swings with very little trade. This is happening with EPO where a number of small investors have decided to derisk. Nothing wrong with that. EPO long term plan remains in place and they are progressing. Those who believe EPO will make it will use this downturn in share price to accumulate.

“Jeff Bezos was one of the first shareholders in Google, when he invested $250,000 in 1998. That $250,000 investment resulted in 3.3 million shares of Google stock worth about $3.1 billion today”

I’m not saying EPO will gain anywhere near the success of google but time is the key for companies like EPO to reach its full potential. Buy now and forget about it for 5 years.

GLA

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 23:47

Dear readers, please take a few minutes to digest the losses trend in post 13853 and my extracted -£9.2m loss in the most recent 6 months; then re-read management's ultra bullish July 2017 trading update about how great it was going. Do you feel they deceived the market to pump the fundraising?

Ssr says EPO 'chose' to make a -£9.2m loss in just the 6 months to 30 June 2017 rather than reach breakeven; and EPO 'chose' to raise £25m for 'growth' not necessity.

SS says EPO's flawed business model crashed yet again in H2fy17 so the loss mushroomed; and dirty EPO raised cash to fund its wild losses at a grossly inflated price BEFORE the market realised the scale of the disaster, so a price crash now is correct to reflect that disaster.

One of us is savvy, the other a fool. You decide (and then sell imnediately before the falling knife butchers more of your cash). Imho. Dyor

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 17:24

SS - you don’t get it. Do you? I’m beginning to feel sorry for you. If it makes you feel good then continue with your posts about the past.


The recent institutional investors did not make the decision to invest here based on past performance. They know it’s been turbulent. They can however see a possible bright future especially because they are growing the business and a lot of metrics are improving.

I give up with you. I will not engage with you anymore. You have lost it and someone who needs help.


Goodbye.

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 17:13

I’m not bullish in the short term. However, I believe the potential is so great that this is worth a long term punt. The weakness in share price is giving me the opportunity to build up a stake here. If they continue to increase revenue and hit the targets for the next three years then the broker target of 68p or better is not unrealistic.

There is obviously low sentiments here which is driving the share price down. If you look at the fundamentals then the current price looks good. Therefore it’s important to cut out the background noise and hold and build here.

EPO can be a profitable company now. They have chosen to sacrifice profit for long term growth. How many companies can you think of who are doing or have done just that?

They are deploying the new funds to significantly scale up the business. As a long term investor I am happy to wait as I think if they get it right then this could be a multi bagger. So no fear here and if it goes to 10p then so be it. I will keep building.


GLA. IMO. DYOR.

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 16:56

EPO management conned Ssr and other trolls, not me. Read my cracking Sept 2014 posts seeing through their falsity. The truth is 'scary'. EPO reported results under profligate virgin CEO Hank 'loss-junkie' Uberoi:

6m to 30-06-10 loss -£1.5m
6m to 31-12-10 loss -£2.1m
6m to 30-06-11 loss -£5.4m
6m to 31-12-11 loss -£5.2m
6m to 30-06-12 loss -£4.4m
6m to 31-12-12 loss -£4.5m
6m to 30-06-13 loss -£3.6m
6m to 31-12-13 loss -£4.8m
6m to 30-06-14 loss -£1.9m
6m to 31-12-14 loss -£5.4m
6m to 30-06-15 loss -£3.3m
6m to 31-12-15 loss -£6.1m
6m to 30-06-16 loss -£2.1m
6m to 31-12-16 loss -£2.9m
6m to 30-06-17 loss -£9.2m

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 16:51

SS - simple questions.

If you feel you were conned by EPO management then why don’t you take it up with them or the FCA? Why antagonise people on this board with your constant scaremongering and vitriolic posts? Does it make you feel good? Don’t you tired of it?

[ddubzy] 13/11/2017 16:43

Sadly the market is agreeing with Silk...Which is a bitter pill to swallow when your heavily down...Chart looks truly shocking and is pointing down since hitting the glass ceiling at around 29p...It looks like 10p is on the cards.

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 16:36

Ssr, you have been conned by deceitful EPO management. The revenue result was 'in line with' the multiple downgraded market expectations. The £30.3m was £24.7m below the original expectations. imho

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 15:36

SS - you enjoying yourself today. You always do when the share price drops. Sums up up your character. You must lead a sad and miserable life.

With regards to targets have you read the results.

“Revenues increased by 33% to £30.3 million (FY2016: £22.8 million), in line with market expectations”

Others who know you better have said you are a scaremongering, lying troll. Pretty much sums you up.

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 15:15

EPO holders in mid 2005 were hit with a 76 for 1 share consolidation, down to 8.4m shares. From 2005 to 2017 the vile losses caused serial rounds. No 615m shares. 2005 holders have been consolidated into oblivion and diluted into oblivion. EPO has not subjected investors to 'volatility' it is genocide. Imho

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 15:06

Ssr says "if we continue to hit our revenue targets". 'Continue' implies EPO has already hit a revenue target, which is a lie. FY17 forecast £55m turnover but actual was £30m. Monster miss. FY17 forecast £20m profit but actual was -£12m loss. Monster miss. Any talk of EPO hitting targets are lies by cynical crooks. imho. dyor

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 14:25

How about ride the volatility and sell at £1 in a few years time.

£35m in the bank and revenue of around £40m FY18. This money is being invested in the next couple of years and if we continue to hit our revenue targets we should get to profitability by FY 2020. The big funds managers can see the big picture and so do the majority of the other investors. The thing is with a small company which has low liquidity, you only need a small number of sellers to see the share price drop which is what is happening now.

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 14:06

Why not sell now @17p and buy back @10p in a few months? Imho

[ssr23] 13/11/2017 14:02

Therefore imo long term holders need not worry too much. My next buying price target is 15p if it reaches those levels.

GLA

[silkstag] 13/11/2017 14:01

Bid slid to 17p. Only MMs. 0 from others. 500k visible seller overhang. Price crash imminent.
Fy17 forecast +£20m profit on £55m turnover. Multiple downgrades. Actual -£12m loss on £30m turnover. Monster fy17 misses on earnings and turnover.
Same vile story for fy14, fy15 and fy16. False forecasts, serial downgrades, huge losses.
Feeble fool if you rely at all on EPO forecasts.
Cynical crook if you tell anyone to rely on EPO forecasts.
Imho. Dyor