Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 03/12/2015 08:00

I stated "the Directors would not buy any stock"

I stated "the share price would not recover and would follow HSS pattern"....

2/2 aint bad......

pip pip

[tuftymatt] 02/12/2015 06:59

In my opinion DX won't go bust but they have messed up big time this year.

Jobs for the boys and guilty of thinking City Link going pop was their chance to clean up in this sector are two factors that spring to my mind in terms of messing things up.

They have a mountain to climb now and with others in their sector ahead of them by a long way at the moment, catching up will not be possible in the short term based on their current network / business weaknesses IMHO.

[marketgem] 30/11/2015 15:58

What's going on here? What's triggered the new sell off?

[az4hr] 30/11/2015 15:14

I hate this share so much

[aleman] 30/11/2015 12:48

Found the appropriate statistic for fuel volumes in the retails sales figures and it is quite remarkable. Highest rolling 3-months for 6 years.

Last 3 months automotive fuels volumes - 104.2, 108.5, 109.3
Same 3 months of 2014 - 98.6, 97.3, 98.2

Last month's 11.3% annual increase is the biggest since Dec 2006. It's no wonder there are jams again. An extra 400k people comng in each year is bound to have an effect sooner or later.



(See page 37)

[dr biotech] 30/11/2015 12:35

I think what they really need is to merge with some smaller couriers. Its all about reaching a critical mass. The article in the FT refers to a sudden drop in the higher value business. Finding out why and how/if that can be restored would have to be the key driver here.

Don't have a position here, but if they can pay 2.5p it would be a decent return

[joe say] 30/11/2015 11:39

I guess the added point to the fuel one is that fines/penalties will most likely increase as well as parking becomes that much more restrictive/and the wardens that much more vigilant

[lord gnome] 30/11/2015 10:56

Aleman - nothing unique about Yorkshire. It seems to me that traffic everywhere is atrocious. Christmas shopping this year will be manic even before we reach the shops. (I am a lurker here - no position).

[aleman] 30/11/2015 10:49

If the rest of the UK is anything like up north, then delivery companies have a problem. Traffic has been atrocious in Yorkshire since September such that is has become a dinner party and pub talking point. If delivery drivers get stuck in traffic more, then they will need more (perhaps smaller) vans and drivers and will have to increase charges to pay for those, along with extra fuel used. The market will adjust to it in time but will it be adjusting to a sustainable level of business? The traffic is like 2006/7, which was the top of the cycle. What happems when it turns down again when they've adjusted to the higher level of slower traffic? (It is possible that further growth in online sales might ride to the rescue on that but I would not bet on it.)

[paul the octopus] 30/11/2015 10:35

less than 10p on coming (2nd) profit warning

[master rsi] 29/11/2015 21:40

From FT

UK Mail and DX feel pressure of being small in delivery industry
Financial Times
Kate Burgess
SMALL TALK November 29, 2015 1:37 pm

[aleman] 27/11/2015 18:33

No abnormal returns for sells but some for buys. After adjusting for size effects in a bull market and survivorship bias, it was cnsidered that abnormal returns were within the bounds defined by transaction costs.



I understand that to mean that abnormal returns can be found but are so small as to not be worth bothering with. This is just what I found by Googling. I've reaad many articles that said similar over the years.

It's very similar to the "Sell in May .." adage. Studies that did not adjust for ex-dividends found significant outperformance for a portfolio that sold in May and bought inSeptember. Studies that did adjust for ex-dividends found far more modest gains that called into question transaction costs.

[aleman] 27/11/2015 18:09

Not what I was looking for but interesting:

[aleman] 27/11/2015 18:06

I was referring to articles I have read in Shares Magazine and the Financial Times over many years. I'll see if I can find anything online.

[aleman] 27/11/2015 18:00

Let's see if this will format reasonably:

2016 2017
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arden Partners 16/11/15 NEUT 11.70 4.60 2.50 9.90 3.85 2.50
Numis Securities Ltd 13/11/15 HOLD 12.50 5.20 2.50 13.10 5.40 2.60
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe 16/11/15HOLD ... 5.10 2.50 ...... 5.30 2.50

[az4hr] 27/11/2015 15:36

U have links to Ny studies Aleman love to read up on them thanks

[aleman] 27/11/2015 13:58

Studies have repeatedly shown that director buying only makes a short term difference to the share price and has no correlation with the share price on timescales of 12 mnnths and longer. You should just ignore them!

[paul the octopus] 27/11/2015 13:45

directors are not buying. it says it all!what's -80% of -80% at 80p equates too?

[dlku] 26/11/2015 14:18

normal service resumed

nackered, down to 8p on the second warning when it comes

[jackbal] 26/11/2015 14:12

Thanks Ramas. Hope your strategy pays off. I put some of my proceeds into tung. Another hopeful punt without sound fundamentals but can say in their case that the directors put their hands in their pockets at much higher share price and hoping for a rise before next results.

[ramas] 26/11/2015 14:01

Gl JB and understand your rational .... I'll give them a while longer to do the right thing and buy in size.