Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[jackbal] 26/11/2015 12:48

I sold out at today after making a fraction above what I paid. Good luck to longer term holders. Based on my recent trading record this is probably as good a sign as any that this will make a strong move up now i'm out!

I simply couldnt hold any longer with no director purchases.

[ramas] 25/11/2015 14:32

Well well I'm actually in profit on this trade now happy days roll on 30p

[az4hr] 25/11/2015 13:37

34.25 seems like a resistant point failed to
Break it 3 times

[marketgem] 25/11/2015 10:39

Completely agree. Just about patience.

[ramas] 25/11/2015 09:00

I may make some money yet as DX heads to a more sensible value ..... Thinking 30-40p area

[tuftymatt] 25/11/2015 07:43

The man at the top of UKM has today paid the price for the mess they are in!!

[marketgem] 24/11/2015 08:21

Lol but that's yodel

[master rsi] 23/11/2015 23:57

From the "UPS" thread ........

British Bulls tonight
DX(GROUP)
Last Signal:BUY
Last Pattern:BULLISH THREE GAP DOWNS
Last Close:22.75 Change:+2.75 Percent change+13.75%

Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY.
The BULLISH THREE GAP DOWNS pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 20.6250

Pattern Description
This is a four day bullish reversal pattern. It consists of three consecutive days each gapping lower on the open. After Three Gap Downs the market becomes extremely oversold and ready for the reversal of the current downtrend

Market Outlook
Let’s jump on our white horses and go for a bullish ride. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. Most probably, it is the right time to participate in bullish fervor. The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this bullish opportunity.

[aleman] 23/11/2015 22:09

she-ra
23 Nov'15 - 15:30 - 578 of 583 0 0

Aleman - But aren't they about to take on a lot of debt?

According to Zeus debt will be at a fairly comfortable 2 times EBITDA. Arden have less profit, though, that would see debt/EBITDA up to an uncomfortable level on a 2.5p dividend, such that it might be cut again or even axe completely for 2 or 3 years until debt is paid down. The shares seem to have sided with Arden at 20p until this afternoon. They'd be 45p on Zeus forecasts. Maybe the market is starting to think it might be somewhere between the two, as per my thought that we might see a quick bounce from oversold to 25-30p, a level where they are still probably a bit more in line with Arden's forecast than than Zeus's.

[staverly] 23/11/2015 22:04

she-ra: no doubt you've read the small print pertaining to the outsize GW element; my reading is that ~95% of it relates to the legacy business and not to overpriced acquisitions - of course, i could be wrong. The BS may well be due for a material non-cash write down but at current market value that appears well catered for.

[she-ra] 23/11/2015 21:36

Can you show me an envelope where you haven't just used revenue (vanity) and include profit (sanity)?

Oh and you may want to compare their balance sheets. Where UK Mail has some much greater tangibles and where shareholders equity isn't made up of intangibles.

[staverly] 23/11/2015 21:12

Back of an envelope valuation (my preferred type as not looking for fine calls)suggests this is too cheap at £45m. Read across from UKM reinforces my conviction. In summary:

DX business model superior to UKM (DX exchange may not be the jewel it once was but it still provides competitive advantage in a me2 industry, hence higher margins).
DX valued at 11p for every £1 revenue vs 26p for UKM - adjusted for cash, debt & L&B (PPE). DX not subject to quasi ultimate controlling party, UKM is. I could go on but no doubt you'll want to ... DYOR

Disclosure: Long position opened today equivalent to £40m m/cap (19.5p)

[marketgem] 23/11/2015 18:26

EBITDA is cut by 42% to £20.0m in FY16 (previously £34.5m) leading to earnings declining by 55% to 4.9p. The dividend is cut to 2.5p (previously 6.2p) and it is forecast that it will remain at this level in both FY17 and FY18. Net debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16. Excluding this investment net debt would be below £10.0m in FY16 falling marginally in FY17. - See more at:

[master rsi] 23/11/2015 16:23

5 days chart show the turn around from the 18.75p low last Friday

[...]

Charting is bullish on today's rise

[...]

[master rsi] 23/11/2015 15:47

The signs are that the bounce is certainly on
on a strong order book DEPTH of 43 v 31 as share price movement up on any small buying

[she-ra] 23/11/2015 15:30

Aleman - But aren't they about to take on a lot of debt?

[aleman] 23/11/2015 13:53

I think the previous good cashflow record and lack of debt here means the 2.5p dividend might be manageable even with a significant fall in earnings. As such, I suspect shorters have driven this a bit too far down and guess they might rebound to 25-30p in the short term, where the share price and yield (8.3-10%) would still be asking major questions about the strength of the forecast. It would still be a 2/3rds mark-down if it rose 30% but I'm here hoping for yield rather than capital gain. I just think the market has overreacted with a 75%+ fall on a profit-warning that is hard to quantify.

[marketgem] 23/11/2015 12:04

Seems the prices have bottomed and should start seeing a recovery now imo.

[deanroberthunt] 20/11/2015 16:58

what worse than the news that's took 80% of it !

[dlku] 20/11/2015 16:17

does have a feel of bad news coming

[ramas] 20/11/2015 14:35

Too binary an opinion. Dx has been my bad trade of the month although I've had a good winning streak long and short so cannot complain. I am going to keep the faith for a while longer. Troubled business yes but it's still viable especially with potential cost synergies and there must be parties running the rule over DX so watch trades carefully in coming weeks. Supposedly a 2.5p ish dividend - hopefully not a case of releasing bad news slowly. The maths seems to stack up on the warning message and plenty of operational leverage IF they can get the house in order , director buys late today would be helpful .....IMO dyor of course

[paul the octopus] 20/11/2015 14:04

another City Link by xmas, no wonder losers buy losers