Driver Share Discussion Threads

[stewpot3] 13/5/2014 16:46

Whats driving these down?

[pj 1] 02/5/2014 09:15

Thanks Elite

Bought my first SPRP @66p :-))

[el1te] 02/5/2014 09:04

I'll check soon and update this post PJ. We only get the Basic EPS forecast though, rather than the underlying EPS which was much higher for Driver last year. Not a bad move to shed the pricier companies. There certainly aren't many decently priced companies that are easy to find. One that I do like the look of is SPRP, but will wait for it to settle down before evaluating it properly.

Re: the software partnerships, it just sounds to me like they have invested cash into bespoke software systems rather than off the shelf stuff, but that's a guess

EDIT: Just checked PJ and Charles Stanley have £3.2m in pre-tax profit for this year which they somehow get to be around 8.7p EPS. As in my latest article on Driver, I've expressed scepticism about how they actually got these two numbers to tally, as in any ordinary circumstances it would come out at a higher EPS. Even factoring in the options, the weighted average number of shares in issue will be used, hence the impact this year will be negligible.

For 2015 they have 11.37p EPS. Superbly well done on SPRP - can't say I've even looked at plus market stocks

[effy123] 02/5/2014 09:00

Doesn't read too bad to me, although does anyone know what the "invested in developing partnerships with software businesses" refers to? I wasn't aware they were into that sort of thing.

[pj 1] 02/5/2014 08:54

Do you have any eps predictions Elite?

Very few of my current holdings have a forward P/E >15, and have ditched many blue sky holdings such as MONI.

Still hold just a few 'gambles'

[el1te] 02/5/2014 08:44

Absolutely Pj - Just had a quick look st the RNS and the declining revenues Y.O.Y stand out. I think investors are becoming more wary of RNS' that contain any negative text

That and the tech stories coming crashing down, of course. Not a bad thing by any means, as some of the company valuations were ridiculous (and some still are)

[pj 1] 02/5/2014 08:37

THT got hammered on an in-line TS on Monday, subject to fluctuating Sales and is slowly recovering

Reflection of the fickle Market overall rather than individual Companies?

edit-THT was also followed by Director Buys

[el1te] 02/5/2014 08:33

Do bear in mind that they are already a month into H2, so they should have a pretty good idea of how it will pan out

[tudes100] 02/5/2014 08:29

Yep, realised that but thought it was worthwhile detailing them just to remind what the priority regions are in current revenue generation, 80/20 rule and all that.
No-one wants to hear second half weighted but I'm happy to be patient and see how things play out given the recent performance.

[marky55] 02/5/2014 08:18

Tudes these %s are for full yr 2013, however with Middle East growing at 65% last year and Asia growing at 203%, their share exiting 2014 would have been higher .... around 35% and 8%.Again these are showing the fastest growth in 2014, so their share now may be more like 38% and 12% .... so I make it approx 50% of the business running ahead of expectations.

[el1te] 02/5/2014 08:17

Sundance - The AGM statement just a few weeks ago told us they were trading in-line as a whole, and that took into account the investment in Europe. Please let me know unless they have stated otherwise.

Perhaps it is just that the performance this year actually will be weighted. Too many people jump to conclusions, in my opinion, on that point. I maintain my view that Driver will meet or exceed this years expectations. The text within the RNS was a bit dull though, it has to be said.

El1te

P.S - PJ: Revenues in 90%+ of their operating regions are up! No chance of it being through decreased turonover, so pre-exceptionals I expect a clear improvement upon last year. Will take up any opportunity to add below 100p if it presents itself

[pj 1] 02/5/2014 08:15

I think we all hate the 'second half weighted' but I'm reading this that they are behind on increased costs rather than an overall Turnover reduction (although it could be both)
Appears feasible so Im giving them the benefit of doubt and see what HY outlook statement brings.

[jakedog2] 02/5/2014 08:11

Sold out at the open , 'second half weighting' ...not for me
GLA.

[pj 1] 02/5/2014 08:09

I have 11p eps for y/e 2014 but nothing on Barclays

Has anyone anything different tia

[sundance 13] 02/5/2014 08:09

I don't think there's much doubt they are currently behind I'm afraid, the good news is they are expecting to offset the extra costs they mention with improved trading in H2, but we will have to see.Pretty much every share I've seen mentioning 2nd half weighting has ended up warning on profits later in the year.I don't think long term there's anything to worry about, even if they did miss forecasts this year.

[tudes100] 02/5/2014 07:56

Africa 10%, US 2% = behind expectations
Middle East 32%, Asia 5% = out performing
Europe 50% = in line.
Language a little flat but nothing to be too concerned about imo.

[el1te] 02/5/2014 07:35

I highly doubt it sundance. Asia and the Middle East performing ahead of already expected growth, is likely to counter-act Europe (one-off), the US and Africa. I'd be extremely surprised if they were trading behind expectations. Anyway, a few weeks and we will know. Bear in mind that forecasts for this year don't exactly require much in the way of growth.

[sundance 13] 02/5/2014 07:30

Oh dear, the dreaded weighted to 2nd half comment, I.e we are behind full year forecasts currently but think/hope we can catchup by year end.

[el1te] 02/5/2014 07:25

- Asia Pacific and Middle East performing ahead of expectations
- US and Africa performance slow
- Europe in line with expectations, but expect sone one-off exceptionals relating to the regional investment

- Board pleased with first half performance with overall trading in line with expectations
- Results this year will be weighted towards H2 given the high levels of work expected

In other words, Asia, Middle East and Europe all have increasing revenues. Africa and USA probably have decreasing. Asia and Middle East probably have increasing profits. Europe, Africa and US probably all have flat or slightly down profits.

El1te

[el1te] 01/5/2014 17:15

Hi PJ,

Doing well on the whole. Some laggards in the portfolio seem to be starting to wake up and there's the odd one or two that have moved into profit, which is nice. I've been meaning to take a look at THAL one of these days. AEX is uninvestable in my view - simply too risky with the debt pile in any circumstances, plus BH is still on the board.

I covered Pennant back in March, around about the same level that it's at now. Put it on a buy tag so it currently occupies one of the 20 portfolio slots. Was a little annoyed that it dropped back to 80p, but the fundamentals are there so a nice hold. Saw the directors incentivisation RNS - I suppose it could mean something, but we'll have to wait and see . In any case, it looks like it has further to go, over the next 3-9 months - same with DRV.

El1te

[pj 1] 01/5/2014 17:07

Hi Elite
Hope your well and doing ok too? Yes touch wood, up 8% overall 2014, so pleased with that. THAL struggling but only a matter of time imo!! Haven't looked back since I ditched AEX last year. Amazed some PI still in there very heavy, but not even attending AGM, makes you wonder.

Without ramping too much, and is O/T but take quick look at PEN Pennant. Interesting RNS ref CE Incentivisation. Targeting to sell? Im not aware you hold there?

Fits my target criteria, no debt, low p/e, divi approx 3%, decent cash generator, not without risk obviously. ZULU..!!!!!


pj

[el1te] 01/5/2014 16:57

Cheers PJ - Hope your portfolio is doing well

[pj 1] 01/5/2014 16:53

Don't hold your breath!

Note out tomorrow or Tuesday, due to later than normal Board meeting.

pj

[tudes100] 01/5/2014 09:57

was hoping for a nice tick up into interims but without a statement I guess its going to stay quiet

[el1te] 01/5/2014 09:23

Who knows, Tudes. I would have expected a pre-close update, and there is still time to issue one. That said, before a few years back they did not issue one.

Can only wait and see. Prospects here are solid though - it's just a little boring with regards to price action!