Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[cordwainer] 24/7/2023 20:36

.. as in H2-23 = 2% NAV slip vs 65% discount ?



Factoring in the limited cash along with average peer group discounts a conservative near term price target here without significant catalysts should be around £3.50 imho.
Edison is arguing a further 12% discount is embedded into Molten's valuations but I would prefer to assume that is cancelled out by costs inflation. And if they were to use any of the 150m credit facility that's a 10% interest rate atm.

[cousinit] 24/7/2023 11:39

It was more that some of the selling pressure recently was based on Mid 250 index being a UK domestic proxy, which isn't really the case for a number of inv co's in the index (including GROW). My base case here is more of a muddle through where the NAV slips by less than is being implied by the market

[johnrxx99] 22/7/2023 09:35

So, it's a time to wait for the collapsed bubble to reinflate, what, 6 months? The US will lead, the UK will follow.

[cousinit] 21/7/2023 11:22

I'm seeing more comments that US investors were shorting the Mid 250 in June as a domestic UK proxy for the sticky inflation/higher rates pain trade.

Suggests that larger trusts in the index that aren't particularly UK focused can easily get sucked in. A number gapped down in late June so looks like there isn't much depth with MMs despite market caps either side of £1bn

[cordwainer] 10/7/2023 18:44

re pref shares as mentioned by riverman, is it known / knowable whether such prefs have the additional features of being cumulative or convertible ?

[steve3sandal] 10/7/2023 14:33

Trying to understand what went wrong here. They did make good profits on a number of exits in the past few years. Has it all been reinvested and rolled over at higher valuations which have melted away? Why would you borrow to invest in early stage ventures?

[waterfall city] 10/7/2023 13:52

I think the large discount here is because they may need to raise fresh capital in the future as they are already using their bank facility.Sounds like the bulk of their portfolio is OK finance wise for 18 months as at March 23. A lot will depend on how long interest rates remain high.

[johnrxx99] 26/6/2023 09:44

Unrelenting springs to mind.

[descartes244238] 20/6/2023 20:47

When Mr Arrogance renamed it after himself, he should have called it Mouldy Ventures. Share code WILT. Price heading for the £2 level. Sold and good riddance. Fund has no growth and no idea

[albert arthur] 16/6/2023 08:57

Added this today, part of a quantitative momentum algorithm... results out, no surprises... expecting this to ride to the EMA200 in the next 4 weeks or so..

[riverman77] 15/6/2023 10:04

I think they'd already guided the NAV would be around that level in earlier trading udpate so no surprises there. Given how frothy valuations became this isn't too bad and hopefully now reset at a more realistic level.
Worth noting that the downside protection helped cushion the falls (I believe through some sort of preference share arrangement which means GROW would be the first to be repaid in the event of a company getting into difficulty). Underlying portfolio seems to be doing ok given strong revenue growth and decent cash runway, while recent funding rounds have been in line with valuations.
Clearly some sort of discount is justified but 60% seems excessive. Worth keeping in mind that if the discount narrows from current 60% to a more reasonable 40% then that would translate to a 50% return (a bit of a mathematical quirk at play there).

[spectoacc] 15/6/2023 07:57

And that NAV from March. Shares will turn up before the market does, but not convinced the market's finished correcting yet. There's an awful lot out there I wouldn't personally touch with a bargepole (& not just Revolut or Graphcore ;).)

[johnrxx99] 15/6/2023 07:43

The final results look a bit grimmer than expected. GDP243 loss and 780p NAV per share down from 937p last year.

So we have about a 62% discount to the current share price. Lets see what the market thinks over the next week or so.

[johnrxx99] 14/6/2023 05:42

R77 - agreed but IMO the publicity is such the bubble has a lot further to go. My understanding is that AI covers all software development that put people out of work :-)Thus government panic - not taxes from a PC or robot.

[riverman77] 13/6/2023 11:57

Not sure it's that straightforward to work out their AI exposure - how exactly would you define an AI company? Surely most companies use AI to at least some extent. Personally think the whole AI thing is a bit of a bubble now, although not saying it won't run a bit further.

[johnrxx99] 13/6/2023 09:39

I've had difficultly discovering the value of the portfolios' AI content. Names are listed on their site but individual NAV's etc are not.

IMO that would help clarity.

[blackdown2] 13/6/2023 08:39

Due on 15/6

[w13ken] 26/5/2023 17:05

Final results out 13th June last year so we may get a more positive picture then.

[riverman77] 26/5/2023 16:22

Surely this is due a good move higher - the tech sector is on fire now but this has hardly budged, and the last trading udpate was pretty solid.

[mallorca 9] 24/5/2023 10:29

Certainly was.
Have added.

[brut winky] 23/5/2023 13:59

mysteronz: Good find.

[mysteronz] 23/5/2023 13:14

Another positive funding round at a premium

[belgraviaboy] 23/5/2023 09:48

Yes - also interesting to note the volume on Friday.

Has a seller cleared?

[ayl30] 23/5/2023 08:57

Nice to see yesterdays uptick continuing