Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[qvg] 02/11/2022 08:15

John, I agree. Added this morning.
(presumably recent rise was not a coincidence)

[johnrxx99] 02/11/2022 07:42

IMO a good update. Has it reach a low, who knows, but I'm back in today, come what may.

[steph52] 26/10/2022 08:59

Plus our year end results say sales on average growing by 65% across core portfolio. SO even if valuations in sector down by multipoles of sales and other fixed factors our growth may outpace the tighter valuation tendency.

Also in our results over 80% of core have 2 year plus runways, including REvolout, so none need to go to market over the next year when conditions are tight. If this market persists for more then 12 months they will start throttling back on growth to extend runway lengths.

Looks to me that apart for our listed shares GROW has a great portfolio not vulnerable in aggregate to down -rounding. CAZOO excepted we have 2 good listed shares who may recover much value over the next 2 years. Uipath and trustpilot are great business models. They seem to be growing. Maybe worth a direct punt at these levels.

[steph52] 26/10/2022 08:37

cute.

YEs with a massive series of down-rounds on our core portfolio maybe NAV/share is already down to 3 quid.

However down-rounds are only running at 6% of sector, quite normal. Recent last rounds for GROW shares post crisis have been up rounds. REvolut may be a candidate for a down round as the last round uplifted it's nave by 5x. Either that was frothy or the round before that was an undervaluation. Even if Revoluot is downrounded there are enough winners to balance and for us to hold and impove on NAV/share. Our seed funds will not normally get downrounded.

OUr 3 listed shares have had the bulk of their post IPO decline written off in our end of year results so can't do much additional damage. CAZOO now 1/40th of peak. The fact we hold any CAZOO does reputation damage. Looks like bad judgment an a panicked investor might assume the worst on our healthy core portfolio as a result

I think it is just retail panic partly stimulated by extrapolation to the unlisted portfolio of the decrease in value post IPO of our 3 listed shares.

[spectoacc] 26/10/2022 06:58

"we could be back to nav/share by this time next year."

Alternatively, you may be there already.

[steph52] 26/10/2022 06:19

yes a long way to any sensible share price

2/3rds nav due to current market conditions normal. 26.5% of nav either massive overshoot on downside or indication that something seriously wrong on nav calculations.

i think there is no evidence of problems with nav calculations and the upcoming half year results will help reassure the market.

from 2/3 nav share to an share price of nav/ share and beyond will require a market and sector recovery.

i think that will come sooner rather than later as sector dip closely tied to interest rates not recession fears. thus as soon as recessions kick in interest rates will flatten then drop, deputy of boe saying that moment may have arrived already. with it will be a big relief rally for whole tech sector but especially the unlisted private bit.

we could be back to nav/share by this time next year. indeed that is precisely what our only broker guidance predicts, so 3x over 12 months from here

good luck all

[cordwainer] 25/10/2022 21:54

^ I did not sell too early I'm running a portfolio with hardly any cash balance and slightly trimmed my largest position for a trading profit. I don't like to run positions much higher than 8% of portfolio. But I may have noticed a ridiculous but apparent trading pattern and correlation with the share price and took advantage with some small extra bets.

And somehow this fickle market may be reflecting a Sunak Effect more positively than a re-Boris-kerfuffle-ism* in terms of medium and long term financing and inflation and therefore valuations.

*not in the OED ..yet

[scepticalinvestor] 25/10/2022 18:49

You sold way to early, moron

[cordwainer] 25/10/2022 15:46

Strong move up this afternoon. Suspect rebound in US investor flows.

[cordwainer] 19/10/2022 13:19

Sold my latest batch (acquired for 253.2)for 273.6 late yesterday. Small consolation for my core holding. Crazy discount has to narrow eventually one way or another, but probably both ways.

[rambutan2] 13/10/2022 15:27

I added a few more at below 250p.

11/10/22: We are delighted to announce that Molten Ventures has co-led a €16m Series A funding round for SettleMint, a high performance low-code platform for building blockchain applications.

SettleMint is a low code developer platform that abstracts away complexity to enable the other 99% of developers to build value creating applications rapidly and easily on web3 infrastructure. The company has established itself as the category defining platform for blockchain application development for enterprise and is trusted by leading banks, financial services providers, global retailers, manufacturers and by innovators in the public sector. SettleMint enables developers to scale fast, moving from use case concept to production in weeks rather than months or years.

More than half (58%) of companies believe that their industry will be impacted or disrupted by the underlying technology behind blockchain and want to get ahead on the adoption curve to improve efficiency, remove redundant processes or capture new revenue streams. However only 1% of developers have experience building on blockchain technology. With the acute shortage of capable developers and instead of building specialized blockchain teams or hiring expensive consultants to build for them, SettleMint provides a new option.

Molten is joined in the round by new investors including OTB, with which it co-led the round, Fujitsu Ventures, Allusion and Bloccelerate and existing investor Medici Ventures. The funds will be used primarily to solidify the company’s existing positions in Europe and Asia, fuel the company’s expansion into the Japan in particular. This will include the addition of 60 new team members globally.

[rambutan2] 12/10/2022 03:56

Courtesy of Mr Bailey’s evening statement, i’m now suspecting i might have bought a day too early...

[cordwainer] 12/10/2022 01:30

It's the biggest holding in my portfolio since 2020 and nursing a loss but also successfully traded a few small portions to mitigate.

[rambutan2] 11/10/2022 22:24

I bought a few today. Not as a trade but a hold - and hope for growth growth growth!

[spectoacc] 11/10/2022 16:30

Doesn't seem to have found a bottom yet.

[cordwainer] 11/10/2022 16:20

Turned around my previous tranche for 322p, got another small batch today @ 253.2 fingers crossed for another little near-term bear rally?

"cordwainer29 Sep '22 - 16:16 - 45 of 55 Edit
0 0 0"
and I happen to agree with Grahame Cook and picked up a few at 267.6"

The share price seems to be swinging more than the portfolio's listed constituents, the others were said to be well capitalised.

[blackdown2] 01/10/2022 10:51

Times today has Molten as a major mover, with the reason being bid speculation.

[w13ken] 30/9/2022 21:32

Great rise in the last day and a half. There was a general market improvement today but 3 other things look to have been a factor.
1. The £100k Director buy.
2. An MV tweet complaining about Hargreaves Lansdown pulling MV share sales. MV included a link to Key Information Document (KID) that HL said was missing.
3. A £385k purchase of Molten Ventures VCT plc shares for cancellation. Not the same as the PLC but the management may be thinking the same thing.

Fingers crossed for further gains. I've a long way to go to get back to black.

[riverman77] 30/9/2022 16:34

You may be correct and perhaps valuations not excessive, but would like to see more detail to show that. AUGM by way of comparison had a very useful chart showing the average price to revenue multiple across their portfolio - this was compared to the wider venture sector and highlighted the their prudent approach. Would like to see something similar here.

[cordwainer] 30/9/2022 16:31

It's only one day, but consistent upwards momentum to the close today seems like a decisive bounce. Not to mention also bouncing off long term low.

[blabla10] 30/9/2022 15:32

The director who just bought £100k of shares is the Chairman of the Valuations Committee

[rambutan2] 30/9/2022 14:23

riverman77, on pg10 of the results presentation they give a bit of guidance, albeit not greatly detailed.

I don't believe they are aggressive in their valuations.

[riverman77] 30/9/2022 14:10

The trouble is the NAV is largely meaningless so can't be used as any sort of anchor to gauge value. They don't supply any information how they actually come up with this valuation - I suspect it's largely based off earlier funding rounds which were obviously very inflated. Some of its peers such as AUGM and OCI provide quite a bit of detail about the valuation methodology and I can see they take a fairly conservative approach - definitely not the case with GROW.

[hammergaumet] 30/9/2022 13:56

Came across this blog post on Moltenhttps://insiderideas.substack.com/p/grow-molten-ventures-uk-closed-fund?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf

[rambutan2] 29/9/2022 23:28

If we halve the last nav, so 450p. This is on a 40% discount to that. And a mkt cap of circa £400m does mean that a big revaluation or two can start to be worth a fair chunk of that mkt cap.

What I really don't like is that they geared themselves. Something that a VC manager just shouldn't do imho. The board should know better.

But I don't think the Molten team are rubbish re their investing prowess, and the price does offer a discounted way to access their business. Hmmm...