Molten Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 22/2/2022 01:56

Thanks for your analysis. I'm going to hold off and see what Putin does over the next few days.

[cordwainer] 21/2/2022 17:16

Although I agree its oversold already I guess the market may tolerate a 25% discount to reported NAV on current macro fears - about 6.65
It's showing us how listed venture capital holdings with a technology bias are high beta in both directions.
However, I've already added modest amounts at 7.31 and 6.79 recently.

[johnrxx99] 21/2/2022 09:23

The slide seems overdone but possibly more to come. Cordwainer, do you have a view on the possible bottom. Personally I'm looking at about GBP6.50

[cordwainer] 21/2/2022 08:17

NAV dropped 5.6% over at Chrysalis, I'm minded to apply similar drop here in this market. Which would still give at least 15% discount.

[km18] 18/2/2022 14:09

...from last year...

Company overview:
Draper Esprit is a venture capital investment firm, focused in disruptive, high growth technology companies. The company aims to be recognised as the go-to VC for “visionaries inventing our world”. As at the end of March they were managing £1.3bn of assets and surpassed the target of £120m per annum threshold they set earlier in 2020 for investments. We would spare the usual growth analysis, due to the nature of the business, and would instead mention that the investments the company has made over the years have generated a healthy 51% growth in gross portfolio value.
The fundamentals look solid, with growth in revenue skyrocketing last year, making the stock a clear growth story and distorting the CAGR, which currently stands at 159%. Net profit CAGR is even more astonishing at 337%. In addition, ROCE has been growing at 17.6% and the year-end figure reached 26.4%. Return on equity is also very strong for the industry at 31.6%, so is the return on capital of 26.4%.  Gearing is negative, which is to be expected, given the nature of the business and valuation is not too stretched, with P/E for 2021 at 4.52, which is in the top quartile of the industry.
Latest communique from the company is in the form of an “Investment update”. Draper Esprit has managed to invest £130m in a number of growth opportunities from the start of the year. They are also mentioning their lucrative investment in Cazoo, the listing of which has generated more than $1bn before expenses....

...from WealthOracleAM

[tightfist] 02/2/2022 08:21

Interesting commentary this morning:".......The European technology venture market continues to thrive despite the wider fluctuations in public markets and demonstrates the uncorrelated nature of public and private markets in this space. Molten is well-positioned to take advantage of this disconnect and our year end guidance of fair value growth in the region of 35% remains, keeping up the strong momentum we evidenced so far this year."

[cordwainer] 28/1/2022 14:07

Taking into account the impact of slightly higher interest rates and moderate inflation on valuations and investor sentiment, against likely decent portfolio progress, my target here for 2022 is about £10.75
Having missed a 'selling opportunity' above £11 with a personal target of £12 last year, listen to me at your own peril !
Could be further volatility in the short run, but after actualities start to catch up with manifest fears market sentiment should settle and improve through the summer.

[cordwainer] 25/1/2022 15:27

generated report on my GROW investments..

MOLTEN VENTURES PLC,ORD GBP0.01(GROW)
Acquired on: 02 Jun 2020 Last transaction date: 20 Jan 2022
Fidelity Fund Code: n/a ISIN: GB00BY7QYJ50 SEDOL: BY7QYJ5

Value (£) £4,149.31 Units 563.00 Book Cost(£) £4,432.21 Current Price(p) 737.00p

Total Amount Invested £8,318.50 Total Withdrawn (Incl income paid) £5,932.88

Gain/loss on current holdings(£ & %) £-282.90 -6.39%
Total Return Since Inception £1,763.69

..ouch, market is eating thru my investments. Markets still seem risk-off, not topping up again yet despite the discount to historical nav.

[cordwainer] 24/1/2022 13:46

Gold ? Platinum group metals ? Inflation-linked bonds ? Bank stocks ? Infrastructure ? Oil & gas ? Japan ? Vietnam ? idk ...

[donald pond] 24/1/2022 13:11

HVPE in their last results said their average divestment was at a 130% premium to the carried value. I think it unlikely that public markets will outperform private ones over almost any timescale. The smarter, quicker, more patient money is in PE and VC. They won't sell until the markets are ready to buy, but where else is the money going to go?

[cordwainer] 24/1/2022 12:37

The market is now making me eat those words.

General outlook for PE and VC maybe not so rosy as last year and with a 28% exposure* to those sectors my portfolio doesn't look so clever today. How about ..

Most PE/VC companies these days have strong balance sheets so interest rates (if any) within the investee companies don't necessarily need to follow the macro outlook ?

With most of these same PE/VC companies already showing discounts to NAV of >10% we are near to the bottom of the current rerating phase ?

Relatively cautious valuations of investee companies should avoid any colossal implosions ?

*GROW, IPO, PIN, FIPP, MERC, AUGM, CHRY

[cordwainer] 13/1/2022 09:36

Looks like strong support may be being established at roughly same level as NAV/ps.
I wonder if market wariness over tapering and inflation in general is impacting views on private equity discount rates and valuations ? Consensus price target from 5 analysts on Simply Wall St is currently £11.35 however.

[w1lbur01] 06/1/2022 15:35

Topped up just above 9. Hopefully a good area to buy more

[dekle] 31/12/2021 10:23

It also moved t the main market recently

[w13ken] 31/12/2021 10:07

A positive, fairly in-depth analysis of GROW published by Moneyweek today. Also rated as a Share tip.

Note GROW's 35 Seed funds are invested in an amazing 530 companies. How many big winners are in there? GROW gets early sight of them and can help lead/fund later rounds.

"...Molten’s share price can be volatile and its growth depends on finding more high-growth venture investments which it can help develop and exit at a good profit. Its record so far has been excellent. Big-name investments include Revolut, Cazoo, Aircall (the cloud-based call centre company) and Freetrade. Molten’s three-channel deal-finding technique, its record and its encouraging interim results suggest there is more growth to come.

Given earnings per share (EPS) of 206p, the 2020-2021 p/e is 4.5; the forward p/e depends on the value of 2021-2022 exits but, encouragingly, the first half saw a strong eps of 148p. The company could be a useful addition to portfolios for those with a reasonable risk appetite."

[cordwainer] 31/12/2021 07:43

GROW's highest price reached in 2021 missed my target by an entire 10p :-(

cordwainer - 21 Jan 2021 - 09:52:50 - 288 of 472 Draper Esprit - VC Firm - GROW
Based on analyst estimates, my conservative target price here for 2021 is £12.
Among my largest portfolio holdings.

[w13ken] 30/12/2021 08:47

GROW was named on the (behind a paywall) Daily Telegraph list of 2022 tips this week.

The gist is that GROW is a compelling but risky way to invest in pre-IPO fast-growing tech companies and should do well.

[mr. t] 23/12/2021 17:27

I took a small stake in GROW today. Looks a good way to be exposed to hi tech, hi growth, venture backed firms. ??

[rik shaw] 08/12/2021 18:37

Thanks for posting the link.

[cordwainer] 08/12/2021 17:59

"Management anticipates FY22 fair value growth of around 35%, subject to wider market conditions, taking into consideration continued revenue growth within its portfolio, as well as financing rounds and exits, and a healthy pipeline of new investment opportunities."

[johnrxx99] 07/12/2021 05:28

Consensus revenue estimates increase to UK£303.3m

The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has improved.

2022 revenue forecast increased from UK£204.3m to UK£303.3m.
EPS estimate increased from UK£1.45 to UK£1.80 per share.
Net income forecast to shrink 34% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Capital Markets industry in the United Kingdom .
Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£11.25.
Share price fell 3.3% to UK£8.86 over the past week.

Via Simply Wall Street.

[cordwainer] 03/12/2021 14:54

Dipped below £9; I doubt we stay at this par value or less for very long.

[nerja] 02/12/2021 16:58

My thoughts as well , something going on, if I was a trader I would be piggy backing it

[cordwainer] 02/12/2021 16:46

Again a big UT at the end. Is somebody strong-arming this trading range ?