Domino's Pizza Share Discussion Threads

[seekerofvalue] 15/2/2011 18:03

Could someone give an explanation for the 3 transferred in transactions by DOM directors today for 446,176, 749,446 and 957,744 respectively. They helped the share price get back above £5 today, but what are the long-term implications or gains for DOM?

[clubman] 15/2/2011 16:00

A no brainer it was oversold this morning

Clubman - 15 Feb'11 - 09:30 - 908 of 928 edit

Down 9% today, Good top up oppertunity.

Glad I followed my own advice. now down only 3.87%

[seekerofvalue] 15/2/2011 15:56

philanderer you have been blogging about this stock for sometime along with c2i. What is your current target price for DOM?

This is what I had put the early fall today down to and it is repeated here.

[philanderer] 15/2/2011 15:28

Domino's Pizza UK & IRL

DOM

15-Feb

Matrix Group

Hold

Old target price = 536.00p

New target price = 530.00p

[minsky] 15/2/2011 13:52

you didn't have to wait long seeker
its going like a meateor

[philanderer] 15/2/2011 12:40

FT Alphaville...

Domino's Pizza UK & IRL plc (DOM:LSE): Last: 488.10, down 34.9 (-6.67%), High: 589.00, Low: 475.42, Volume: 2.20m

NH
figures looked OK

BE
Another company getting fat, indirectly, on state spending.

NH
but there has been a big slowdown in pizza eating

NH
since the start of the year

NH
this from a sector watcher

NH
Domino's Pizza (Mkt Cap £850m DOM) Dominos prelims for FY 2010 are strong, with LFL sales ahead by 11.9% - in-line with the pre-close on Jan 5. So no surprises here. However the key focus needs to be on trading for the seven weeks of the current year where LFL sales are +4.7% ahead, a rather large slow down from the run-rate in Q4 2010 and up against an 11% rise in LFL sales in the first 6 weeks of last year. They added an extra week in the current trading this year, which begs the question why?

NH
Anyhow we do not expect any upgrades which the market was factoring in implied by the FY1 PE of c.27x for 10% EPS growth. In our view the market was expecting LFL sales of at least 10% which is the level required to drive the volume growth necessary to kick-start the cycle of upgrades to justify a 27x PE rating. Whilst comparatives are tough, they always have been. We are concerned that despite a more intense level of promotional activity this has not delivered the trading result expected. Shares should come off... on a prospective PE of 22-24x suggests the range of 420-450p

NH
Anything more from you Bryce?

BE
Yeah - one more par on the mystery of why Dominos is suddenly struggling.

BE
This is from Panmure.

BE
We are surprised by the weakness of this number given longer opening hours
should be adding c3% to LFL sales growth and November’s price increase c3%. It
would appear therefore that volumes are under pressure. We think the market will be disappointed by current trading – it is the weakest number we can recall over the last five and a half years – and comparatives only get harder over the rest of H1 as the football World Cup had a very positive impact in Q2 last year when LFL sales were +17.2%.

NH
hmm

NH
what's caused that I wonder

NH
interesting

[jon827] 15/2/2011 12:40

Bit of a breakdown in communication imo, you can't be telling folks everything is great and ahead off expectations and then disappoint with exceptional items, all be it one-off ones.

sack the lot of them :) lol

Im reducing my position here and will look to top up lower down. reading the statement I don't think the growth story is over., peps are still going to spend more time at home in the next year or so and they say they have there margins under control with efficiency savings and the like.

[seekerofvalue] 15/2/2011 12:30

Thank you all for your replies, I intend to continue to hold these. And look forward to them once again being back above £5.

[philanderer] 15/2/2011 11:58

Seymour Pierce analyst Hugh-Guy Lorriman said: "These are excellent results, albeit expected to be so. Few companies in UK leisure can boast greater than 25 percent earnings growth, especially when there has been no increase in leverage - net debt has reduced by £7m according to todays' statement.

He adds: "Domino's continues to produce stellar results to support its sector super star status."

[the old philosopher] 15/2/2011 11:22

Thanks Philanderer.

Dom's price is being hit because the increase in like for like sales growth is slowing from last year's +11.9% to this year's (so far) of + 4.7%. This not good news for any company that is on a high P/E ratio.

Contrast this to the market's reaction (no price change) to ABM who announced flat interims today with a same again dividend; they are on a low P/E to start with and the poor headline figures are due to increased expenditure on expanding the business.

[robinnicolson] 15/2/2011 11:04

Broker reaction to latest like-to-like sales figures:

[philanderer] 15/2/2011 11:04

Domino's Pizza Full-Year Profit Declines on One-Off Credit

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Domino's Pizza U.K. & Ireland Plc, the U.K.'s biggest pizza-delivery company, said full-year profit fell 28 percent after the company took a one-off credit of 15 million pounds the previous year for the acquisition of Domino Leasing Ltd.

Net income for the 52 weeks ended Dec. 26 declined to 24 million pounds ($38 million), or 14.85 pence a share, compared with 33.5 million pounds, or 20.95 pence a share, a year earlier the Milton Keynes, England-based company said in a statement on the Regulatory News Service today. Sales climbed 21 percent to 188 million pounds.

Online system sales jumped 63 percent to 128 million pounds during the period as more Britons stayed home, Dominos said. Sales in 553 stores open at least a year rose 11.9 percent, the company said.

"We have had a solid start to 2011, with like-for-like sales for the first seven weeks up 4.7 percent and are encouraged by the recent strength in like-for-like sales growth," Chief Executive Officer Chris Moore said in the statement, "This figure comes against the backdrop of exceptional comparatives from the same period in 2010 and the current difficult economic climate."

Dominos may pass on a 1 percent to 2 percent increase in food costs to franchises this year, Lee Dale Ginsberg, chief financial officer said by phone today.

[edmondj] 15/2/2011 11:00

The valuation simply got too rich, forward P/E testing 30 times.

[wjccghcc] 15/2/2011 10:58

I suspect it's the pedestrian current like-for-like sales growth of 4-5%. That would be fine for a retailer on a PE of 12 but not so good for one on a PE of 25.

[robinnicolson] 15/2/2011 10:54

Their analyst presentation is now available for download:

[clubman] 15/2/2011 10:36

Do not worry usual results sell off improving now, only 7.62% down.

[slogsweep] 15/2/2011 09:57

Still highly rated - a lot of growth priced in - maybe worried about Ireland. Will hold and look to top up when it bottoms out say 458 (200 day MA)

[minsky] 15/2/2011 09:46

anyway - I thought it was looking a bit toppy

[minsky] 15/2/2011 09:40

Buy the rumour...

[montyville2] 15/2/2011 09:30

What am I not seeing? To my amateur head the results seem very good! No need to panic but would love to understand the reason for this dramatic fall!

[clubman] 15/2/2011 09:30

Down 9% today, Good top up oppertunity.

[eddcooper] 15/2/2011 09:30

Awesome results, price tankage :'( Oh well, you can't argue with Mr Market

[huntie2] 15/2/2011 08:03

don't think the market seems too impressed....so much for my top up yesterday!

[philanderer] 15/2/2011 08:03

Market doesn`t seem impressed on first reaction.