Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 13/5/2024 13:09

Thanks elpirata, added to the header.

Interesting reading, including...

Short - of a braincell
News that DEC will be joining the Russell 2000 next month in June which will deliver improved liquidity. Meanwhile the stock goes ex-dividend again in 10 days delivering 29 cents or 2.08% (per Qtr) at current prices (8.32% per annum). Shorts are melting away and the snowy short duo not even appearing in the shorts list - so much for their conviction and short report. The oldest short dated 19 Jan borrowed at £9.65 so is on a 13.7% loss on today’s £11.18 price as well as dividends Q1/Q2 adding another 8.1% = so a 21.8% loss. Glad I’m long and not short!...

[elpirata] 13/5/2024 10:12

Another good summary update from oakbloke this morning



To conclude, the Q1 update provides a solid performance and it is difficult to understand the rationale of the remaining shorts. I believe these will melt away. The risk-averse business model has delivered a 48% EBITDA margin even through the “Valley of Death” Q1. As DEC emerges to higher prices, higher production, continued progress on its NextLVL business, continued improvements to its emissions and aggressively paying down debt and buying back shares while maintaining an 8% dividend.

DEC-hands who’ve suffered the storm emerge to sunnier and calmer waters awash with new opportunity and progress.

[bountyhunter] 11/5/2024 15:06

DEC counterparties have never defaulted to the best of my knowledge. I would say that that risk is extremely low and it wouldn't surprise me if they are secured by the banks or underwritten in some way. In fact in the wider oil and gas market I've never heard of a hedging counterparty defaulting.

[kaos3] 11/5/2024 05:20

I like deleveraging. As many predict regional etc banking failures etc it makes complete sense to me to derisk DEC by not being depending on loans as much as possible.

Loans make good margins in low interest rate environment.

In higher they start being risk not profit.

All imho

PS hedging - who is the counterparty and how sound he is?

[bountyhunter] 10/5/2024 20:42

..and with interest rates set to fall things could change here quite quickly especially if the gas price continues to strengthen. The yield may now be "only" 8.2% but that becomes more attractive with declining interest rates and special dividends are not out of the question in a more positive environment.

[cassini] 10/5/2024 18:22

I think the interest rate environment changed and stuffed up the model DEC relied on to raise cash.

I overlaid the chart of I3E and DEC over the last 18-20 months or so and the correlation is very good.

I3E is the Anglo-Canadian analogue of DEC.

It wasn't just a DEC thing, the last 18 months decline. IMO.

[renewed1] 10/5/2024 17:43

There will be no reason for these to move up until Rusty ups the divi.
when the shares were 120 he said they made a lot of money when the hedged price was above $3. Well they are hedged well above $3 and cut the divi to a third.!!! Can we trust anything he says.

[97peter] 10/5/2024 13:38

But also when Peel Hunt have the buying criteria of 5 days average , they should be buying 50,000 shares at £11.20 not a measly 3,750 which is of no use whatsoever!! Come on Rusty get them buying at least 59,000 every 2 weeks and let’s get rid of those pesky shorters! Coupled with demand from Russell 2000 listing!!

[leoneobull] 10/5/2024 11:49

If one or two close before admission of Dec to Russell 2000, could this create double push upwards on shares, shorts closing, and trackers buying? Also when share price goes up, fewer sellers, basic psychology

[tsmith2] 10/5/2024 10:38

10-15% of share capital. shorts may feel a tight squeeze?

[justiceforthemany] 09/5/2024 21:54

Russell 2000 listing going live end of this month.
Demand for shares ++
Tracker funds will be buying.

[bountyhunter] 09/5/2024 20:57

£11.30 equivalent in New York now.

[croasdalelfc] 09/5/2024 20:07

hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1047243/diversified-energy-company-achieves-strong-results-with-robust-production-and-financial-performance-1047243.html

[bountyhunter] 09/5/2024 17:33

As I mentioned earlier the dividend details are at the top of the header and if you click on the "29c" you will go through to DividendMax which has both declared dividends and dates up to date with the yield at 8.2%.

[justiceforthemany] 09/5/2024 16:33

AGM tomorrow

[pdt] 09/5/2024 16:01

BlackBerry processing plant made me think that instead of oil they had gone into Ribena production 🙂

[leoneobull] 09/5/2024 13:23

Blackbear. Damn the predictive text

[leoneobull] 09/5/2024 13:23

Blackberry processing plant. Cost 10m. Cost saving - 9m a year? That sounds like good business to me?

[bluemango] 09/5/2024 12:37

I think the slight confusion over the dividend was because the June details/specific dates were never published on Advfn, you had to go to the Company's own website and view the AGM agenda (issued 10th April) to get the dates. So seeing the September details via RNS might have looked like the June one was skipped, but it wasn't.

[this_is_me] 09/5/2024 11:36

Peter always put a capital T in otherwise advfn changes the tt to xx.

[garycook] 09/5/2024 10:03

97peter, Yeah also checked with www.dividenddata.co.uk. Updated DEC for the June dividend.

[97peter] 09/5/2024 09:51

hxxps://www.dividenddata.co.uk/ex-dividend-date-search.py?searchTerm=Dec

This gives you both dates for Q1 and Q4 , this site is always up to date.

Let the shorters start selling and Peel Hunt start buying.

[tsmith2] 09/5/2024 09:27

v reasonable update

[kaos3] 09/5/2024 08:39

I like black bear deal a lot.

A Q on inflation and hedging.

Do hedges adjust for inflation?
If not, what happens if we get 10,20 % inflation (not impossible) pa for several years and hedges remain the same?
If not hedged against inflation with other hedges, which they do not atm