Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[seangwhite] 13/6/2024 07:58

hTtps://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Eagle-Ford-Is-Turning-Into-A-Natural-Gas-Haven.htmlInteresting insight on US natural gas supplies in the future.

[bountyhunter] 12/6/2024 21:17

Good question Leon. I don't have an answer other than to suggest that some of them may have taken their eye off the ball.

[leoneobull] 12/6/2024 17:30

https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BQHP5P93/Sp doing very nicely. What i can't understand is why are shorts at 6.6%? NG over 3 usd. Are they trapped?

[justiceforthemany] 11/6/2024 19:36

Nat Gas up 20% in a week.

[asp5] 10/6/2024 07:00

Now that the oaktree deal has been closed, does this now allow a larger regular buyback program? If this volume is maintained, it translates to ~5M shares purchased per annum (~10% of shares outstanding).

Raising nat gas prices (to allow the lockin of higher hedges), ongoing buying from US funds, increasing LNG export capacity (which should help to reduce any spare capacity and equalize Henry Hub with global gas prices ) & now potentially increased buybacks should provide a tailwind to the share price over coming months.

I certainly would not like to be holding a short position given the current backdrop.

[cat33] 09/6/2024 10:49

Good summary of the acquisition https://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-june-9-2024Worth reading

[bountyhunter] 08/6/2024 18:44

Yes well worth a read. Added to the header links - click on "Oak Bloke latest" and then the article.

[leoneobull] 08/6/2024 13:57

Oakbloke has done another decxcellent article and my debt concerns , though it's complex."DebtThe ABSIII and ABSV notes were retired and a 3X oversubscribed $610m ABSVIII note issued less expenses of $18m delivers $592m proceeds. Fair value of ABSIII/V at 31/12/23 was $524m but using the same straight line of debt reduction as occurred in 2023 around $55m of repayments will have been already made until 31/5/24, so net debt retired was around $460m. This means the RCF reduces by $132m. The RCF was $159m at 31/12/23 and $190m at 31/3/24, so this is a sizeable reduction.The RCF rate is SOFR+2.75%-3.75% so is a floating rate costing 8.66% in 2023. ABSVIII meanwhile is a blended fixed 7.28%. ABSIII/V were a fixed 4.8%/5.8%. While VIII is slightly more expensive overall than the debt it's replacing we also know existing loanholders participated in ABSVIII so rolling up ABSIII/V was likely part of the cost. The new debt is A/BBB+ replacing lower rated BBB debt".

[2wild] 08/6/2024 11:47

Yes USA natural gas nudging 3.0. Up 100% from lows a few months ago. Yet I paid just below £11 Friday.

Share price does seem to be totally random. Will keep buying dips and selling rips. Bringing down my average price.

[sbb1x] 07/6/2024 11:30

Gas hitting one month highs and looks like breaking out

[sbb1x] 07/6/2024 10:19

Stateside pre open 14.43 = 11.28

[sbb1x] 06/6/2024 13:10

Big trade 79,888@1099.50

[sbb1x] 06/6/2024 12:20

Stateside pre open 14.58 = 11.41

[sbb1x] 06/6/2024 11:51

Gas is starting to motor higher

[blue square] 06/6/2024 05:48

Shorting issue is confusing, do they
think DEC are going under?
Do they think Dec is overvalued?
Whats their end game?

[kaos3] 05/6/2024 06:22

leon - what is missing in the RNS is the price dec paid. it might not be nominal

[sbb1x] 05/6/2024 06:08

Closed state side 14.37 = 11.25.Pre market over there 14.49 = 11.35.

[renewed1] 05/6/2024 06:00

Only Rusty has the financial data to work out the merite of the deal so we are in his hands.!! Trouble is he shot his credability in the foot by telling us he was making loads of money at $3 gas and then cut the divi by 2/3rds

[leoneobull] 05/6/2024 03:07

I'm confused about debt at DEC and Rusty's strategy. We closed earlier ABS's at lower interest rates (5% ish blended across ABS 3 and 5) and took out a new ABS 8 at 7.28% coupon? I listened again to Peel Hunt from April 15th call (Matt Hunt) who said they expected significant cost savings from 2024 to 30 from paying off the revolver early, but mentioned an interest rate of 2.75 to 3%. Does the above not mean we now have materially higher interest for a decade...and the main change being the oaktree acquisition? So is Rusty betting that the trade off to be made of higher interest costs is more than covered by the additional cashflow generated by oaktree purchase? ABSIII - $274.71M - Coupon 4.875%ABSV - $290.213M - Coupon 5.78%Both redeemed with proceeds of ABSVIII - Coupon 7.28%

[oneillshaun] 04/6/2024 16:20

Well we will definitely see some increased volume those first few days

[action] 04/6/2024 15:46

So price will go up b4 July inclusion.

[sbb1x] 04/6/2024 15:36

Lovely UT. Could see a Lovely bounce tomorrow.

[oneillshaun] 04/6/2024 14:51

My bad the inclusion in the index is not until the 1st July