Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[drk1] 01/9/2023 08:38

Outstanding set of results, be interesting to see analyst coverage and revised broker targets. Also love the new, simplified explanation of the DEC model (you should read Stevenupertrader). We simply have to be back into the 100's shortly after this and more than happy I held firm. ;-)

hxxps://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_b6df3bff28c7e285315bf8d7ec405b03/dgoc/db/557/4684/pdf/DEC+1H23+Earnings+Presentation.pdf

[stevensupertrader] 01/9/2023 08:27

Dec debt has increased , not good . Dec share price will fall back under 90p imo

[marksp2011] 01/9/2023 07:57

You are missing the point.Last period net income was positive with the hedge loss creating a "paper" loss in aggregate.This period the pre hedge income number must have been negative 130m as net income was +631m including a gain of 761m on hedge valuationUnderlying operating income must have been -130mIt might make sense if the recent purchase and acreage sales have been put through the P&L

[rimau1] 01/9/2023 07:46

Its not weird - the non cash gain/loss on the hedge. This year they have a non cash gain as the hedge is in the money. Last year most on this BB were complaining of the hedging loss because gas prices were high so the hedge was out of the money!

[gary1966] 01/9/2023 07:46

Yes I noted the NOI and without the hedging a big loss. Personally disappointed with the margin, was expecting even better with their hedged prices and production taxes based on spot prices. Not sure if asset retirement a bit behind the curve as isn’t the annual target 200 wells?

[molatovkid] 01/9/2023 07:22

From 8th Ayg, 2022 Interim RNS:

• Net Loss of $935 million which includes $1.2 billion (pre-tax) of non-cash hedge valuation losses

The key is in the phrase 'non-cash' I think but yes, I see your point

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/9/2023 07:16

That will do nicely, volumes +4.4%, costs down -10%, EBITDA margin +4%, and another 0.04375 cents dividend in the pot..SP heading towards 100 pence today..?

[marksp2011] 01/9/2023 07:15

I am concerned about the net income numberIt seems to include a hedge revaluation gain that is larger than the resulting position suggesting organic ner income was negative Wierd

[lab305] 01/9/2023 07:06

"These results reflect the resilience and consistency of our business. The execution of our disciplined strategic plan and the strength of our operational performance translated directly into strong financial results and allowed the Company once again to generate robust cash margins despite lower natural gas prices. Diversified is the right company at the right time to deliver long-term stakeholder returns while also providing the solution to existing, long-life producing wells that have become non-core assets for other operators.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/8/2023 10:00

The Tanos deal closed early March so should be adding in full this quarter and if the 40% FCF payout ratio policy is maintained, we could see an uplift in the dividend this or next quarter..?

02.03.2023 - Acquisition Highlights - results in uplift of Free Cash Flow of 20%(e) and Adjusted EBITDA of ~19%(e).

0.035 * 4 paid
0.040 * 4 paid
0.0425 * 4 paid
0.04375 * 3 paid so far + tomorrow morning tbc
0.045 for the next one to maintain the progressive policy..?

Not long to wait now... :o)

[plutonian] 31/8/2023 08:59

Diversified aims to pay dividends of about 40% of its free cash flows. That is a prudent policy and should be maintained. It is the share price that is wrong, not the yield. That will sort itself out in good time.

IMHO

[cwa1] 31/8/2023 08:31

Yes, "we" are. And you get to spend it on 29/9

[my retirement fund] 31/8/2023 08:30

I trust we are ex dividend today ?

[farrugia] 31/8/2023 08:05

'We should see whether the cash flow benefit of the latest acquisition, using the placing is sufficient to offset the poor gas prices we have seen this year.'

poor gas prices won't impact them much as they hedge the bulk of their production at fixed prices years in advance!

[lomand01] 31/8/2023 04:43

Yes but Rusty has a target yield of circa 10%. Pretty confident that he has a more productive long-term objective for the growing cash pile which would achieve this. Fingers crossed I am correct.

[cassini] 31/8/2023 01:48

I think the commitment was to pay out at least 40% of profits (or was it free cash flow?) as dividends, so there is a potential scenario where they would be obliged to increase the divi!

I'll be happy if it is maintained at the current level though.

[tag57] 30/8/2023 22:24

We should see whether the cash flow benefit of the latest acquisition, using the placing is sufficient to offset the poor gas prices we have seen this year. Personally I would like to see some benefit after taking a share of the 105p placing only to see it 15% underwater for the next 6 months.
Obvs the divi is already very high but as the benefit is not seen in the share price at this current price, as long as it is affordable given the debt levels and ARO emerge, why not continue to increase it.

[bluemango] 30/8/2023 21:44

Personally I'll be both delighted and relieved if they can keep the dividend maintained at current level and if they can confirm the Q2 payment soon.

[scrwal] 30/8/2023 21:09

Given the current market it would be silly to increase the dividend. It is already at a high level so keep it the same for the next year and use the cash elsewhere - could be used to start pre funding the ARO.

[lab305] 30/8/2023 17:12

It may be the dividend but we have known for a long time about that. I think more the announcement of results after a long silence. There was a sense of relief today amongst many investors.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/8/2023 17:06

Very nice, and closing with a 96 pence UT, the dividend got well bought today, now let us see where we are same time tomorrow post XD, then Friday post the interim and dividend update.. :o)

[1knocker] 30/8/2023 15:45

Don't undermine my hopes LLB !!

In this very difficult investment environment I am hoping for the consolation of my biggest ever DEC dividend payment. It will be a few days yet before the rate is announced and I learn whether even that small cup of satisfaction has been dashed, untasted, from my lips.

[1knocker] 30/8/2023 14:35

If going ex a dividend of this size (and with exchange rates currently looking pretty favourable for UK recipients too, so it looks set fair to be worth more in ££ than the last one) is not reflected by a drop in the SP, that would be very positive. A bit improbable too, to my mind!

As to the timing of the interims, personally I doubt it was influenced by the ex d date. It is not the job of the BoD to try to manipulate short term share price movement. Nor are such shenanigans good for the company or its share price in the longer term. Trust in the company and its board are ere eroded if the market believes announcements are being used to play poker with the shareholders. In any event, a company paying a quarterly dividend is always going to end up making announcements relatively shortly before or after ex d dates. Moreover DEC pays by equal quarterly instalments. The ex d date and any announcement timetabled for shortly before or after it are much more share price sensitive in the case of a bi-annual payer, especially in the case of the big ex d day if the dividend payments are split about one third /two thirds, as many are.

[drk1] 30/8/2023 12:51

Hmmm, ex-divi tomorrow, interims, day after. Wonder will we see some selling tomorrow to secure the divi & the price, or will all hold for rhe iterim (hopefully) boost! Tension abound!