Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[pro_s2009] 02/6/2023 07:33

O/T post.

If you want some fun......... PRD - Predator Oil and Gas

MOU-3 to spud within 24 hours........ get the thrill of success or failure with the drill bit



2 June 2023

MOU-3 Drilling Update

Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc (LSE: PRD), the Jersey based Oil and Gas Company with near-term gas operations focussed on Morocco, is pleased to announce that the Star Valley Rig 101 will commence drilling the MOU-3 well within the next 24 hours.

A further update will be given, which is subject to partner approval, when MOU-3 reaches its intended pre-drill total depth of 1,500 metres TVD KB and prior to the commencement of wireline logging operations.

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Fox Davies just released a 42 page note on PRD, you can download the PDF file in the below link - a good read - and shows the potential. Read the disclaimer, its high risk high reward stuff, although not a binary on one drill or prospect as they have other things as well.

Download link :

DYOR !!


.

[cassini] 01/6/2023 23:49

1knocker,

I think the Southwest got your share of global warming, in Devon it's been lovely these last two weeks, I'm having to put on sunblock and water the garden!

[1knocker] 01/6/2023 20:00

Its an ill wind which blows no one any good. Purchasing wells from distressed sellers who assumed the good times would last for ever and have been caught out by a spell of low prices is far better than having to pay top dollar for wells in a booming gas market. This is a cyclical industry, so prudent, patient management is at a premium.

If it keeps on blowing the way it has for weeks now in the East of England (and it looks set to do so for at least another week or two), the offshore windmills will be fuelling the nation! It would be good to see my electricity and gas bills fall the way DEC shares have - I might even grow to love these bloody cold NE winds - but I am not holding my breath! I don't know about climate change, but the last few years we have had very persistent N and NE winter and spring winds in the east of the country, and I am beginning to yearn for a bit of global warming! In the meantime, roll on the divi.

[jailbird] 01/6/2023 15:36

Thx Cassini

[cassini] 01/6/2023 14:33

They state they hedge gas contracts forward heavily so that they know they can pay off their debt.

In that sense, not much danger of them getting into trouble where they need to raise money to avoid defaulting like some small gas/oilers have done in periods of weak oil/gas prices.

Of course, they might raise money anyway in order to buy more land/resources, but that's another story.

[jailbird] 01/6/2023 14:21

New here to DECIs there company safe from weak NG prices as hedging place until until 2025@$3.75 NG prices ?

[mondex] 01/6/2023 13:20

Rystad: Global gas prices fall further on limited downstream demand
May 31, 2023

Natural gas and LNG prices are falling amid weak demand and high inventories in Asia and Europe. And while cancellation of US LNG cargo deliveries is possible, it is unlikely as global benchmarks remain well above shut-in levels given prices at Henry Hub as well as liquefaction and transport costs, Rystad Energy said.

Month-ahead prices on Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) are around $7.90/MMbtu this week, down 15% compared with last week. The price of Asian spot LNG for July delivery fell 10% to about $8.80/MMbtu, primarily due to weak downstream demand during the shoulder season and high storage levels in Europe and Asia.

Some traders fear a further drop in prices due to limited downstream demand, although a hotter-than-normal summer could strengthen gas use for cooling, especially in Asia.

“Global gas demand could fall to the lower end of expectations as a return in industrial demand in the European Union (EU) remains elusive. Still, we expect the latter half of 2023 to be supported by weather-driven demand in Europe and Asia.” Rystad Energy said.

Gas markets in Europe, Asia
Europe’s gas storage is currently 68% full and is now trending 7% below the 5-year maximum.

In terms of pipeline supplies into Europe, Norwegian piped gas volumes increased to 213 million cu m/d (MMcmd) on May 30, up 2.2% on the week, following planned maintenance at some fields in Kaarsto and Visund. However, ongoing and upcoming maintenance is planned at Aasta Hansteen, Dvalin, Kaarsto, Kollsnes, Ormen Lange, Oseberg, and Troll, which will put some pressure on aggregate supply from Norway to Europe. Meantime, an unplanned outage at Norne due to processing problems is impacting 6.5 MMcmd of capacity and has an uncertain duration.

Separately, gas pipeline flows from Russia into Europe totaled roughly 63 MMcmd as of May 28, down 5% week-on-week.

Regarding liquefaction plants, compressor failure took Norway’s 4.2 million tonnes/year (tpy) Hammerfest LNG Snohvit terminal offline for unplanned maintenance May 4. The plant restarted on May 27, marginally later than its initial expected restart date of May 19.

Gas storage levels at major Japanese power utilities remain high at 2.48 million tonnes (Mt) as of May 28, up 0.4% week-on-week, with some considering time swapping summer and winter cargoes.

Japan imported 1.16 Mt of LNG in the week ended May 26, down 15% year-on-year, with China importing 1.25 Mt, up 5% compared with the same week in 2022, and Thailand 0.26 Mt, some 3.7% less compared with this time last year.

Global LNG supply
In terms of wider global LNG supply, Nigeria exported about 280,000 tonnes in the week ended May 26, 27% more compared with the same week in 2022.

In Western Australia, Pluto LNG has been undergoing maintenance since May 25, with the liquefaction plant expected to restart on June 19.

Pluto LNG’s operator, Woodside, confirmed the release of gas from the plant flare tower on May 26, but expected the turnaround schedule to be unaffected.

In the US, LNG feedgas rebounded in May as Cameron and Corpus Christi LNG returned to near full utilization in the week ended May 26. Meanwhile, Sabine Pass feedgas has dropped to 300 MMcfd to average 4.6 bcfd this month, but the plant is still 100 MMcfd higher than May 2022 averages.

US gas market
The US natural gas rig count declined to 137 units the week ended May 26, levels not previously seen since March 2022. Production continued to move higher, reaching 102 bcfd in the week.

Expectations of mild US weather triggering lackluster demand alongside gas production output improvements have kept the prompt month Henry Hub price steady, trading at $2.30/MMbtu as of May 30.

“US Lower 48 weather pattern proves to be a headwind for prices; we expect more volatility as the market exits shoulder season and moves firmly into the summer injection season. However, warmer temperatures in the second of June remain possible, which could provide some upside for prices,” Rystad Energy said.

[owenski] 01/6/2023 08:19

Second purchase by CEO, £61k's worth.

[lab305] 01/6/2023 08:05

83k versus a turnover of 17 million seems like a very unequal struggle to me. Get some real firepower out and get the share price back up to 120p. The cash is there so use it and each dollar spent saves 10%. If there was any imminent deal in the offing the director sale would not have been allowed nor the director purchases. 85p share price is a nightmare and the dividend has become just a slow way of getting your money back .

[asp5] 01/6/2023 07:12

17M share vol reported as traded yesterday. 9M in one large transaction, but also a 4,5M trade as well.

I do not see any recent new news that would be a cause of concern from a value perspective, in fact the value proposition at these levels are fantastic.

It does appear at first glance that the current share price weakness is being driven by sentiment and events such as above. Which I should note can change quickly.

[oneillshaun] 01/6/2023 06:45

I don't think you are going to have to worry about 120p for shares for a long time this has only been going in one direction.

[shawzie] 31/5/2023 15:56

Is this a large sell in excess of 9M shares today?

84.0 9376140 85.8 85.9 14:58:57 9,376,140

[1knocker] 31/5/2023 15:54

I am not keen on buybacks, but if a company plays that game it is at leas a relief when it does so when the price is low. Most buybacks seem to be horribly mistimed. Quite what those who paid 105 on a placement make of seeing part (albeit a small part) of their money used to buy back shares at 85 a couple of months later is probably best left to the imagination!

Director purchases and a price rise when oil and gas are under the cosh are very reassurng. Well done those who bought yesterday. Fingers crossed.we are are in for a better six months as we pass the annual cyclical low for gas prices.

[skinny] 31/5/2023 15:23

Highest volume for 2 and a half months.

[scrwal] 31/5/2023 12:34

It's only worth it when you buy on the dips to create a decent yield and it is up to personal preference whether to just hold or sell in the 120s.
I would never buy the share in the 120s or higher based on past patterns.

[topazfrenzy] 31/5/2023 09:21

Glad I topped up yesterday, this is a dividend cash machine and so cheap

[lab305] 31/5/2023 08:01

Well just that £84000 purchased saves them £14000 per year.

[imnotspartacus] 31/5/2023 07:50

100k is a drop in the ocean

[cassini] 31/5/2023 07:45

The reverse started when the US markets opened at 14:30, the buybacks started at 15:40.

[owenski] 31/5/2023 07:39

CEO buys £147k's worth, tidy purchase.

[lab305] 31/5/2023 07:32

So that explains the reverse yesterday. Presumably if there was some deal in the wings that some would prefer that they spent their money on the director sale would not have happened. I hope they continue and stop this seven month rout.

[gary1966] 31/5/2023 07:11

And a couple of director buys as well.

[gary1966] 31/5/2023 07:06

lomand0126 Apr '23 - 13:16 - 4710 of 4884
0 1 0
Not sure from where you are getting your future strip prices? HH prices for post 2025 well above 3.30 for most months which is healthy for DEC even accounting for normal discount from HH prices.

[gary1966] 31/5/2023 06:52

I will repost this as judging by recent posts I believe you have all forgotten this.

Gary196626 Apr '23 - 07:44 - 4703 of 4882 Edit
0 3 0
Aleman,

Hedging drops away quite quickly after 12 months, really?

Take a look at page 38 of the March presentation, link below.



2023 85% hedged $3.83
2024 80% hedged $3.32
2025 70% hedged $3.23

Remember Rusty said DEC make a lot of money at $3. ABS all covered by hedging to be repaid in the next 7 years.

Someone also mentioned on here that the longer term contracts ie 2026 onwards were still strong, well above $3, so there really is no excuse for this kind of price weakness here. Some of the speculation on here for the reason for the weakness really isn’t backed up by reality. They have already hedged quite a bit for 2026 and beyond as part of the ABS conditions. If anything the current situation is a positive for DEC as I am sure some cheap production is going to become available whilst they are making lots of money.