Distil Share Discussion Threads

[janekane] 14/4/2021 08:51

CAVEAT EMPTOR

[janekane] 14/4/2021 08:44

Massive show of confidence by the sellers today
Nothing changes here

[berny3] 14/4/2021 08:36

A few takeaways worth considering

50% growth in both Redleg and Blackwoods Gin (not all Redleg Rum)

+80% growth in export markets - This is significant as we are now expanding outside of the UK that attributes significant value to the brands as they can take advantage of distribution channels of a bigger player if that interest occurs.

Note in the snippet below “alongside other NPD” that means we have further drinks hitting the market this year

“In addition, we ramped up investment in new product and new brand development with the launch of further RedLeg variants and a new botanical spirit brand TRØVE, alongside other NPD which will come to market in 2021.”

We now have strong growth in the on-trade market as people come out of lockdown both Uk and export markets. That should give us further positivity.

Things are positive.

[haggismchaggis] 14/4/2021 08:06

Great update, great work by Distil, ONE MILLION in cash, at last!!
.
I said when I bought Distil stock at 0.8p years ago that it was a great recovery stock to hold, and I'd say the recovery is now complete, it's now pretty much risk free, so onwards and upwards!!

[waspfactory] 14/4/2021 07:46

Going in the right direction, market cap £15m a little top heavy, good long term hold imo

[thepopeofchillitown] 14/4/2021 07:39

Are they any more likely to sell a brand this morning as they were yesterday? Very good results but still a long way to go.

[someuwin] 14/4/2021 07:32

Very positive imo.

[scepticalinvestor] 14/4/2021 07:23

Hmm mkt cap still too high for those resultsOverbought imo

[petersinthemarket] 13/4/2021 21:25

A small, if significant wider spread to 2.80/3.20 and a small, if significant drop in the share price Does someone know something we don't. Getting really close now. Fascinating aint it?

[waterloo01] 10/4/2021 11:53

Nice to see the share price this week. The whole thesis for the business, to me at least, is to build brands and then sell them (or the whole company). Don's been at it years and I suspect didn't expect it to take this long to get the momentum going, but it seems to be getting closer to a critical mass that should/could lead to the deal everyone, including Don must be hoping for.

[petersinthemarket] 10/4/2021 11:13

Basic RedLeg and pineapple version also on sale at Dan Murphy Australia.

[jsforum] 09/4/2021 20:50

I agree - Bacardi acquired Grey Goose for 2 billion dollars

[bprofit] 09/4/2021 17:27

I have recently noticed Redleg for sale on German, Austrian, Czech and Dutch websites... I have not spotted this before and not sure of this is a new development? but if new then could be a positive sign on the export market? Has anyone else noticed this?

[cockneytrader] 09/4/2021 11:12

Very interesting. So it would be fair to say that the RedLeg brand could be worth between £50 to £100m.

PS the £2.5m profit included all sales (i.e. 1m RedLeg + others)

PPS RedLeg is 90% of this company, it is classic Pareto Law

[berny3] 09/4/2021 10:59

CT interesting calc have you factored in Blackwoods Gin in that figure.

1,000,000 bottles would be 83,000 12 bottle cases or around £6mln revenue. ^ months to Sep were £1.8mln (compared to £824 previous period) - last year final half was £1.6mln. If we are lucky enough to take 200% increase in sales = £3.2 plus £1.8 is £5mln - that is getting close. Using 50% conservative GM would be £2.5 take off £1.5 for Admin cost circa profit £1mln is achievable (maybe not this year but not too far away) makes 10p a share look achievable. 40 p/e is conservative when you looked at Fevertree during its growth stage. P/e fluctuated 80 to 100 with them. All in all the game is changing and moving on.

Agree with the above abut saturation of distribution channels - we have a long way to go in the UK alone. The export markets are another driver.

[cockneytrader] 09/4/2021 10:53

Or the equivalent of 3500 barrels (200 litres) annually, mostly from the Appleton Estate.

[cockneytrader] 09/4/2021 10:46

I should add that my assumption of £2.5m profit is based on 1m bottles of RedLeg sold annually, that's 2740 bottles per day.

[cockneytrader] 09/4/2021 10:41

The brand will only be sold when it has reached the saturation of Distil's distribution channels. If RedLeg can make say £2.5m profit, and given a P/E ratio of 40, that's a valuation of £100m or 20p per share. That's some way off but achievable imo. Why would you sell the brand any time soon?

[daz1712] 09/4/2021 10:07

Selling Redleg is fine if the brand has reached its limit with what Dis can do growth wise.
Selling too early would be a mistake. Brands can fetch over 100million, the whole of Distil is only valued at 15m today. Personally I wouldn’t want to sell my holding for less than 10p per share, now Redleg is taking off with Brand building and RG as a non executive
Director