Distil Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 25/10/2017 14:31

Very true. These days people are enthusiastic about trying new products, finding better products from small producers like DIS, regu buying the products they like as well as trying new products, and telling their friends about said products, spreading the word on social media and blogs. The rise of gin and rum clubs is also a good example of this phase change in drinking habits.Roll on the USA deal, it can't be long now.

[woodcutter] 25/10/2017 14:02

i wouldn't disagree with those comments however we should also be mindful that consumers are fed up with the large beverage providers banging out same old same old with little or no creativity. The growth in micro brewery's is symptomatic imv of this feeling and that is also being seen within the spirits sector.

aimho

wc

[buoycat] 25/10/2017 13:51

Not all companies can grow explosively like Fevertree where there was a big gap in the market for a 'craft' tonic water. The spirits market is crowded and competitive. Expectations for growth really need to be kept in perspective. The results may not be spectacular but growth is steady and solid. When the share price gets ahead of events as it probably has done recently with distil it's hard not to get itchy but I think patience will pay dividends.

[woodcutter] 25/10/2017 13:42

with profits growing at potentially 5 times the rate of revenue, post 4135, this is all about growing the sales the rest will happen naturally...... patience !!!!!

wc

[haggismchaggis] 25/10/2017 13:20

And shorters, definitely shorters.

[onedayrodders] 25/10/2017 12:56

smacks of a tipsheet advice notice and the sheep oblige

[berny3] 25/10/2017 11:59

The important figure to me is contribution. The revenue the brands generate after COGS and advertising/promotion. That figure tells you how the brands are performing.

Another important figure is the growth in contribution.

2016 h/y [Sept 2015] Contribution was £174,000

2017 h/y [Sept 2016] Contribution was £230,000

2018 h/y [Sept 2017] Contribution was £260,000

If we apply a 22.82% increase in sales across the whole of 2018 compared to 2017

2018 f/y [March 2018] Contribution estimate £608,239

as comparison

2017 f/y [March 2017] Contribution was £566,000

My calculations are on a multiple of 30 to contribution on a growing brand. Therefore I arrive at a target mcap of £18.2mln or 3.65p.

Based on yesterday results I am working on those figures.

[bprofit] 25/10/2017 10:47

Haggis is spot on, the value of one of the brands they own is worth more than the total market cap, that's without any US deal.. with any US deal the value of the that brand would be worth several multiples of current market cap and sales will accelerate very quickly too. The is one brand they own several and appear to be investing more in the other brands which can only lead to better things.

[suneday] 25/10/2017 10:39

I think he's been generally fair. It can't keep going up on the notion of a brand sale alone some time in the future, can it? It has also to perform in the accepted way.
And everyone knows it is/was looking to break a new market. That will come at a cost, which I would have hoped may be mitigated by existing markets. That may still prove to be the case further down the road.

[haggismchaggis] 25/10/2017 10:36

He's also omitting the likely RNS soon for USA distribution which could go to Southern Glazers, the biggest USA distributor, with massive reach.

[haggismchaggis] 25/10/2017 10:18

His advice is mostly correct, but the avoid part is daft. He doesn't understand that it's not so much profitability that makes the DIS investment case, it's the DIS plan to build and the sell each brand, with any of the brands up for sale and the best performing one's saleable at multiples of the current £15m MCap.

[acdc52] 25/10/2017 02:34

Distil should rename new product Blackwood's Vintage Gin as "Donald's Vintage Gin" and send a box each to POTUS Trump and Warren Buffett.

[boffster] 24/10/2017 22:09

Knowing what AIM is like, and given today's lacklustre statement, I can only see a drift lower for a while, unless something suddenly comes out of the woodwork.

[onedayrodders] 24/10/2017 17:01

who know about tomorrow or next week but not a bad share price reaction considering AIM.
Perhaps as someone mentioned earlier, we have shaken out most of the necessary and are left with true growth / value investors. (a pretty rare commodity on AIM !)

[woodcutter] 24/10/2017 13:18

thought it might be worth trying to put the operational gearing in to context here, of course within this is the assumption that the current administration costs remain pretty stable and reveue growth continues at the same annual run rate.

this year
revenue £2016K
gross margin 56%
gross profit £1131K
admin etc £940K
operating profit £191K
eps around 0.04p


assuming revenue continues to grow around 23% looking forward to next year
revenue £2479K
gross margin 56%
gross profit £1388K
admin etc assumed around £960K
operating profit £428K
eps around 0.1p

to put this more simply a 23% growth in revenue would be represented by a 125% growth in operating profit. profits are growing at 5 times the rate of revenue growth. I guess that's why i'm invested.

woody

[texas_caddy] 24/10/2017 12:29

There has been a lot of volatility recently to shake out some of the weaker holders / lottery ticket hunters, along with the shares mag sell recommendation.

Just an opinion but the weighting of longer term holders with realism and confidence in the story / Don / the prospects / the brands and the products themselves is likely to be heavier than over the past year.

[berny3] 24/10/2017 11:04

running the figures

22.82% increase in revenue. {with no pipe fill and compared against previous that is positive)

COGS 43.89% that is only +0.30% on last quarter. (positive taking into account currency movements and inflation)

Advertising cost +36.3% higher than previous years (these were circa 25% increases)

Contribution £260,000 +13.04% on last quarter - positive growth in contribution is good.

Administrative costs +5.64% good control of admin expense

Overall would of liked to have seen a profit in h/y but results are good in my opinion looking forward to seeing the launch of the new Blackwood vintage.

[darkdogs] 24/10/2017 10:55

short, to the point, only suprised no mention of the US distribution. Overall quite happy with how things are progressing so added a few more

[thepopeofchillitown] 24/10/2017 10:41

Seeing a few unfamiliar names posting here. If you're new then welcome, if not welcome back. Only been involved here since April myself. Word of warning. Disagree with Haggis at your peril. Unless you agree that this is the best company on the planet he will filter you. The guy is an embarrassment. He is now trying to argue the US deal is done and they are holding on to the news so it doesn't get lost in the results. Never heard such rubbish in my life.

[boffster] 24/10/2017 10:23

Biggest Bill makes a good point regarding poor figures versus the first quarter, the implication being that trading in the second quarter was pretty rubbish.

I have followed / been in and out of this share for over 10 years now, and the theme has been one of continual jam tomorrow, success and profitability is always just around the corner.

I see the old 'pipe fill' excuse has been rolled out again, and cash reserves down by quite a considerable amount. Any expansion drive is going to require cash and I would doubt that Distil has enough, without getting the begging bowl out to shareholders yet again.

With Redleg now available in pretty much all the UK major multiples I can't see much more organic growth happening.

Distil should rename itself to Disappointment. At least they wouldn't have to change the ticker like they did last time!

[haggismchaggis] 24/10/2017 10:22

Thanks Woody, that (post 4113) looks much more like what I was expecting for the FY.

[woodcutter] 24/10/2017 10:19

haggis apologies rushed them to get out to the doctors and forgot to include the H1 numbers updated now.

revenue £2016K
gross margin 56%
gross profit £1131K
admin etc £940K
operating profit £191K
eps around 0.04p

It's only a matter of time before it moves to sustainable profit levels. Any US distribution deal should significantly enhance these numbers going forward

agree with your comments on working capital too.


woody

[haggismchaggis] 24/10/2017 10:18

I'm wondering if they left out USA distribution because they are expecting to issue an RNS on it very soon? Safer to leave out than let slip anything?