Direct Line Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[jscowi] 15/11/2006 13:40

poised for the next move up??

[ph1ts] 13/11/2006 21:54

space - please see my previous posts. This moves in very strange directions. It falls on good news and jumps on no news!!

[spaceparallax] 13/11/2006 13:47

Surprised to see much Selling after the recent positive broker noises. One Sell of 25K @ 10.8p - had thought the 10p days were in the past.

[hedgehunter] 10/11/2006 12:48

Traveling in the right direction again.

[spaceparallax] 07/11/2006 15:59

marianne,

Where did you get that table from?

[spaceparallax] 07/11/2006 13:34

Which particular Muppet were you thinking of?

[mariannejane] 07/11/2006 12:57

if you take into account all his tips since he took over at watshot, and take an average you will see how much of a muppet he is.

[spaceparallax] 07/11/2006 12:19

Can't agree with your assessment of Heron - like all tipsters, he gets some wrong, but I've prospered from monitoring and carefully selecting from his recommendations.

[argy2] 07/11/2006 11:54

hedgehunter

Shame about Luke Heron's track record to date.

Hardly inspires confidence.

[spaceparallax] 06/11/2006 15:09

I too feel that DLG will do well; however, I believe that will take time. Meanwhile, we'll suffer the rise and fall, typical amongst juniors and especially the influence of news or its absence.

[hedgehunter] 06/11/2006 08:35

It looks very cheap to me hastings.

I also beleive it will do very well.

[hastings] 06/11/2006 08:10

Broker estimate for next year puts the shares on a fwd PER of 9 against a sector average of 16. Of course has to be taken with a certain pinch of salt, but i think Delling could do rather well.

[hedgehunter] 05/11/2006 23:55

Lifted this from another board, Luke Heron of Watshot.com commentating on DLG late last week.

I do not own this stock, but it is most definetely on my list of temptations. I continue to be very impressed at the speed at which the company is moving its acquisition pipeline forward. In particular, I was very impressed with recent deal to acquire Scandinavian Exhibition Group, a privately owned and profitable exhibition company with offices and operations across Scandinavia. SEG has annual turnover of £3.5 million and enjoys a gross profit margin of 54%. The current share price does not reflect the significant progress made this year, especially over the summer - the low PE, strong growth, low price to sales ratio, which in turn is backed up by a very strong acquisition pipeline, certainly supports a case for strong share price growth.

[hedgehunter] 04/11/2006 23:40

Looking forward to another week of sound gains.

Remember 35p 12 month price target.

[hedgehunter] 04/11/2006 23:39

Very kind of you Hastings.

And ILL WIN IT this next time.

[hastings] 03/11/2006 12:26

hedgehunter, i backed you in the Grand National once, didn't make much, however i suspect that Delling may be different.

[hedgehunter] 03/11/2006 12:19

Just a reminder........

25/10/2006

Delling: Increased 2007 Forecast, 2008 Estimates Unveiled - Buy at 10p

Key Data
EPIC DLG
Share price 10p
Spread 9.5p-10.5p

NMS 15,000
Market cap. 1.51 million pounds
12 month range 8.75p-15p
Shares in Issue 151 million pounds
Net Debt 2 million pounds
Market AIM
Website www.dellinggroup.com
Sector Media
Contact Aksel Bratvedt
0207 484 5663

Over the past year AIM-listed Scandinavian based, marketing services group, Delling, has completed four acquisitions, a 5.3 million pounds placing and has taken steps to improve margins within the business. The company has also started to deliver clear organic growth that is sustainable. We believe that our forecasts for the group for 2007 are too low by a material order and feel confident of introducing new forecasts for 2008. It would appear the City has not totally forgiven Delling for a profits warning more than a year ago, and it has failed to take on board the progress made since that event and the profits potential of the group. Despite this, we believe the shares are materially undervalued and rate the shares as a buy at 10p with a new 12 month price target of 35p.

Delling is a market support services company. It provides out-sourced services to the marketing department 'back offices' of companies predominantly operating in Scandinavia. Established under the name Depicta in 1998, the company changed its name whilst embarking on its current strategy of aggressive bolt-on acquisitions to complement its own organic growth in March 2004. It listed on AIM in the autumn of that year, and now has an impressive client list of over 300 companies, including such giants as Statoil, Norsk HydroABB, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Ericsson. It is a pioneer in the application of the latest IT technology in the creation and efficient management of new and developing marketing channels.

In June of 2006, the company undertook a 5.3 million pounds fund-raising at 8p, and used this finance to handle its balance sheet problems, which had clearly been a concern of both investors and potential customers. The company now has net debt of 2 million pounds. However, if our forecasts are reached, it is possible that banks would lend it up to 20 million pounds to support further acquisitions. The purchases this year have been funded by a cash and shares mix, which typically involves Delling paying 5 times historic pre-tax profits. In a fragmented Scandinavian market, Delling feels it has a long list of profitable, privately owned target companies which can be bought on similar terms.

In the past three months Delling has made three acquisitions. On 22nd August, it paid 1.5 million pounds (5.6 times pre-tax profits) to buy Eckerud, which has annual sales of 4.4 million pounds. On 31st August, it bought Printcenter, which has annual sales of 1 million pounds for 5 times profits, or 370,000 pounds. And on 16th October, it paid 1.18 million pounds (5 times profits) for SEG, which has annual sales of 3.5 million pounds. These three deals alone add 9 million pounds to annualised sales, before cross-selling.

Our assumption is that the group will achieve a pre-tax margin of c10% in 2007, but once the synergy between the acquired companies is realised the margin will increase to 12% by 2008. We also assume (in our 2008 numbers) that another 5 million pounds of sales will be generated via acquisition. However, there is scope for Delling to significantly exceed our forecasts in that respect. The tax charge will – due to historic losses – remain at 0% in 2006 and 2007 but, as those losses are exhausted, it should increase to 10% in 2008 and will remain at 20% thereafter.

We regard the risks to our forecasts as being on the upside since Delling has the appetite, balance sheet strength and opportunities to accelerate its acquisition programme. Our 12 month target prices would put the stock on a prospective price earnings ratio of 12, which for a company growing its earnings and sales at this rate is not demanding. At 10p we rate the shares as a buy with a one-year target of 35p.

[hedgehunter] 03/11/2006 02:22

Yup but the offer went up.

Zak Mir writes: As the 200-day moving average forms one of my Golden Rules of Trading, the current chart position of Delling is something which almost perfectly illustrates the merits of using the moving average as a trading indicator. This is because we have now had four consecutive end of day closes above the black 200-day moving average, something which has to be regarded as technically significant. However, in the case of Delling it is not just the 200-day line that features, there has been an encouraging October double bottom reversal above 8p as well as a push for the RSI above neutral 50 to 68 currently. Perhaps the best strategy here would be to wait or any dips towards the 200-day line, with a weekly close stop loss being the money management point as we await a best case scenario target at the one year resistance line projection up to 22p.

[branca] 02/11/2006 17:00

Some hefty sales late on

[hedgehunter] 02/11/2006 11:48

Another tick up... Nice.

[hedgehunter] 02/11/2006 11:25

For TAers work this one out.........

[hedgehunter] 01/11/2006 12:26

Chart looking favourable....