Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[gbenson1] 18/9/2017 15:31

Almost 2m shares have been bought, most at the the full ask in the last 4 trading sessions, and what effect has it had on the sp? Even investors buying this stock has no effect!! MMs shame on you..

[yump] 18/9/2017 10:55

I can answer that !

Its very interesting that bw quotes teb. Amongst all the people not to trust on ADVFN, teb would be way up on the list.

[arf dysg] 18/9/2017 10:44

buywell3, are you reduced to quoting someone else's post on another company's discussion board?

[buywell3] 18/9/2017 08:16

TrentEndBoy13 Sep '17 - 09:37 - 5304 of 5308 0 0
The bigger question is why no one is buying their probes.

20 year old tech with patents running out and UK sales falling

The Cheetah is out of the bag

[yump] 18/9/2017 07:19

Did they really assume that CardioQ would sell itself. I don't think we actually know and I'm not sure we know what level of sales pressure was applied or not, or whether more would have worked.

The other experiment can't be done can it ? ie. doing lots of door-knocking.

Perhaps neither would work because of the way the NHS works.

[bigt20] 18/9/2017 01:55

buywell3 (post 9038)

Is there any chance of you doing some research?

Re IP:

hxxp://www.deltexmedical.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Deltex-granted-patent-for-its-innovative-Combined-Blood-Flow-and-Blood-Pressure-Monitor.pdf

RNS dated 31/5/17 re. new patent

[mrc2u] 17/9/2017 23:07

FebSome sensible points. However, if you really don't rate management, you should sell.I am actually in two minds about management.They present well and I like what they are trying to do. But they don't ever quite deliver to plan, the NHS has been a car crash and the share price is horrible. They keep on funding the company, often themselves, but never seem to raise enough money.But every time I start to lose faith, I see that all their competitors are following them and that makes me wonder. And now DEMG seem to be moving towards following the competition.So I sold a few then I bought a few them sold then bought and somehow have an awful lot.Guess that makes me a punter!MrC

[february 30th] 17/9/2017 12:58

yump,

I make no claims to be a salesman - you either have it or you don't. You are allowed to criticize someone for something you can't do yourself.

We know that the company made crucial mistakes prior to 2012. They assumed that CardioQ would largely sell itself, helped by NICE. In other words, they were complacent. As a smaller point, they took a long time to address the usability issue. Furthermore, they always took a softly softly approaching in the UK, which clearly failed.

The Webinar was quite difficult to understand, but from what I gathered, it was fairly bearish, in terms of the patchy pace of American growth.

A further issue with the company is that they don't seem to be taking the issue of funding and dilution seriously enough. They miss tricks with the share price, in terms of reporting things that could help inspire confidence and discourage the selling of shares. For example, outside their website, they appear to make no mention of a recent study that highlighted the benefits of CardioQ in terms of pain management.

Having said all that, it's usually when I get so negative on a share I own that it starts going up in leaps and bounds.

[yump] 17/9/2017 12:20

Feb 30th.

You clearly don't believe what was said in the webinar, as it was specifically said that in the next 6 months there is something to look forward to in terms of US account development and things are going in the right direction.

What is not known is whether that will come to fruition or not and whether it will be sufficient.

Perhaps you should go and run Deltex yourself as you seem to have the answers. Perhaps you could have forced the NHS to buy more probes.

Always easy from the outside.

[buywell3] 17/9/2017 11:33

Some decent points there Feb

With IP at around 20 years old what new Institutions are prepared to put money in ?

Existing shareholders are now very unlikely to pay a premium but more likely to want a 20% plus discount

It will not be easy , which is why the present BOD have been having to stump up the cash, not many have an appetite to climb on board a company with such a poor performance sales-wise and the fact that UK NHS sales have been falling for the past few years now in a row will not help much.

USA will become a harder place to gain/keep traction going because of Cheetah raising new funds which IMO will be to keep and try to gain greater USA market share from Edwards Lifescience the 70% USA market leader and to combat the intrusion from the UK companies which want to spoil the run that Cheetah has been having for the last few years.

I still might risk a punt here .... but only at the right sort of money

What puts me off for the moment is the financial situation

Balance sheet in GBP

Deltex Medical Group PLC has a Debt to Total Capital ratio of 48.70%, a higher figure than the previous year's 38.50%

Plus the tangible book value per share is now negative , that is a bit of a worry for me

Tangible book value per share -0.002.

Although to be fair only just negative at - 0.2p




The new Veterinary direction that Deltex Medical are taking just might give a short term lift



And they are selling



To end on a + ve note

[february 30th] 16/9/2017 10:37

Deltex probably needs $5m, so that it stops living under the shadow of the next funding, which it has always done. It also needs a new management team.

Of course I believe the company should be sold. The Count questioned my view, but Deltex does not have the resources to sell its products in sufficient quantity. In terms of shareholders' best interests, the share price is I think going nowhere in the foreseeable future, and I think this was underpinned by the rather downbeat webinar. Nothing is going to happen, there is nothing to look forward to.

And as the company will have to raise money soon - it always has to raise money soon - the condition of the stock market and the share price matters. The market is almost certainly going to substantially correct in the next year or two, sooner than the Deltex story is going to turn bullish. This means that funds will be impossible to get hold of at a reasonable rate, and Deltex will be facing massive dilution. Shareholders might not be happy selling their shares for 6p or less, but the correction will provide better opportunities than Deltex ever did.

As far as other strategies are concerned, getting rid of the current management, combined with a large fund-raising, that increases the shares in issue by at least 50%, and perhaps 100%, might be an alternative. Ideally the company's listing would shift to the US, and maybe the CEO should be young, hungry and totally familiar with the US health system - and prepared to take risks.

By the way, why am I still holding? I think the only reason to buy the share, aside from any short-term trading opportunities that occasionally arise, is for the possibility of a take-over. The main asset is clearly good, but its quality is largely negated by Deltex's mediocre management. In this light, and also with possible reference to Lidco, I came across this quotation from Keith Neumeyer, who is CEO of a silver miner:

"The first thing I do is look at the management team. I know that a good management team could make a marginal asset quite exciting while a poor management team could destroy a great asset".

[mrc2u] 15/9/2017 23:29

Why don't you tell us, Myopia?

[myosite] 15/9/2017 21:31

what does it need then Arf?

[arf dysg] 14/9/2017 16:00

Buywell (9032): "Cheetah Medical attracts $11.76 mln"


Yes, but Deltex doesn't NEED 11.76 million dollars.

[yump] 13/9/2017 13:20

Cheetah looks to have been around for ages, according to their website. There's nothing disruptive.

It could be viewed that Deltex has 'attracted xyz investors as a fund-raise'.

It just depends how you PR it and the US are good at PR.

Unipixel, a scary rival for CAR at one point, just went bust recently. You should have seen the fuss and PR about their 'attracted investment' and opportunities.

Venture Capital is slightly different from market investors of course.

[buywell3] 13/9/2017 12:51

This will be as a result of another company starting to win US market share using some sort of disruptive high usage program ( HUP) no doubt

Cheetah has been taking market share away from Edwards Lifescience

Now there is another kid on the block


Cheetah Medical attracts $11.76 mln

September 12, 2017 By Iris Dorbian


Newton Center, Massachusetts-based Cheetah Medical, a provider of non-invasive hemodynamic monitoring, has closed $11.76 million in funding.

The investors included MVM Life Science Partners, Springfield Investment Management, Fletcher Spaght Ventures, HighCape Partners and Robert Bosch Venture Capital.





Only one company offering a HUP ..... it has now got them all worried




Re cash ... which as we know is king at times

More is needed here before any chance of break even ... and the move to raise cash by Cheetah , which followed another recent cash raising by yet another competitor ... means the stakes in the US have been raised

Weak players there will suffer first

But that does not mean Edwards Lifescience with 70% of market share will not also suffer ... because it will ... it is being attacked from all round

[yump] 13/9/2017 09:43

Yes thanks everyone.

I guess having seen the US slide and the above, my main question would be whether accounts really do stabilise at some point, in terms of having little sales input.

Or, on the other hand, can the existing level of sales spend accommodate a much larger activity level from the US accounts ?

Either would do !

[fozdad] 13/9/2017 00:03

Thanks all attendees for your feedback

[valueman6] 12/9/2017 23:55

Cheetah just announced $11.76m equity fundraise from VC investors

[valueman6] 12/9/2017 23:50

I also attended the investor evening and overall impression was the answers were honest (reassuring) and they are quietly confident about prospects and yes there was quite a bit of discussion about US sales. It seems that staffing changes both at deltex and at end customers can be quite disruptive to sales ... I guess that's not a surprise.

Ewan emphasised their objective is to become cash flow positive - which is mostly a great objective (1 exception would be if there is a much bigger opportunity than current capacity can handle)... which I guess means expansion will not be exponential although it could still be very good, except...

- UK continues to be a drag - albeit less influence. We all had a bit of a moan about the NHS - very sad state of affairs
- some change to ordering patterns from 2 big US accounts (I interpret as destocking - short term)
- Peru & S Korea - much lower but expect that is just timing of orders

DEMG were quite proud that H1'17 was the first time total sales grew in the 1st half since H1'14 and said H2 is traditionally stronger than H1. They are hoping for a couple of big new accounts including a Key Opinion Leader to come on-board.

1 useful question about patents - some of the patents are 20yrs old - they said the technology was quite difficult to copy - I wouldn't expect them to say otherwise but not sure if that's a red flag..??

I asked about the UK private sector - they didn't think it was a big market.. not sure whether they have explored indepth;

Future fund-raising is likely but 1st they want to get to cash break-even.

I asked about debt vs equity - told me the board was not too keen on debt.

Some discussion about competitors (in US) ... main is Edwards, Cheetah medical (private Israeli company) have expended fast - strong at sales, not sure about delivery, Lidco just starting out. Ewan was confident they had the best products and once educated, they would win / keep customers.

Would Deltex a takeover target given their superior product offering and a huge market to go after - answer - yes probably but unlikely to be imminent.

That was bit of a potpourri from my notes - apologies - not very structured

[supernumerary] 12/9/2017 19:51

yump - I guess the other possibility is that competitors wait for Deltex to open the account, then step in with a cheaper offer - 90% the quality for 50% the price? Or something like that; but one could easily imagine that competitors are very happy for deltex to do the initial heavy lifting, then just argue relative merits of their solutions.

[the count] 12/9/2017 19:04

--->YUMP

Yes, my audio was rubbish too, and I had the benefit of having seen and heard the presentation the night before.

I reported it to the company and they said it should be better when it goes on their website.


--->DAZ

Sounds as if you were there last night. I was anticipating a more down hearted presentation, but some of my own reservations were answered with good responses so I walked away with better expectations for the near term than I arrived with.


--->FEBRUARY 30TH

Yes, they were having problems in that 1 region. But it's a staggering leap of 'logical' deduction to use that as some sort of justification for your long held argument that they should sell up and go away. A temporary problem in 1 territory equates to your conclusion?

They don't yet have representation in Texas or Florida. Should they give up? That's a ridiculous argument to use.


Regards all,

THE COUNT!

[february 30th] 12/9/2017 14:58

Were they saying that the NW region was causing problems? If so, that might be connected with the high income in Seattle, where's you're competing against tech companies. If Deltex can't afford to keep staff, they should throw in the towel and put themselves up for sale. As I've said before, I'm sure a sale is the best move for shareholders, certainly in terms of opportunity cost.

On a different note, is there a large overhang? There has been good buying today, and one would have expected a move up.

[yump] 12/9/2017 14:43

Thanks for that. I did wonder how staff changes could possibly affect orders if the equipment and commitment is already present within a hospital, but I hope that is just because accounts are relatively new and the sales staff are there to try to expand use.

For existing committed accounts, I can't imagine any situation where sales staff are needed. Either there is a need for X probes based on use for Y likely patients or there isn't.

So I'm assuming there is a point where the recurring order revenues themselves are actually at little or zero sales cost.

Unless this is some odd and unwanted situation where clinicians or buyers need constant sales calls to encourage buying one product over another. I sincerely hope not, or the business model is way off what I thought !

[daz] 12/9/2017 14:02

Yump, excuse the tardiness in replying

Deltex had anticipated the question and had a whole slide dedicated to this. There has been a very large variation in the performance of the different regions they cover in the US. Of the six, 2 had seen growth of 56%, 3 were in single digits, one he explained as being relatively new and needed more time to develop, the other 2 were affected by ordering cycles at large hospitals. One had actually declined by 19% and this was explained by staffing problems, where the sales person had left and his replacement also left after a few days.

Ewan also said that performance had been affected by uncertainty over what would happen to Obamacare but was more confident over 2018.

As someone asked, it seems that the recurring revenues from probes is not just a matter of a hospital sending in a repeat order and needs some work, even so changes in staff are to be expected and it was disappointing that this had such an effect.

The potential though, is there at least.