Deltex Medical Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 18/1/2018 13:08

So this year I've got £5.9mln revenue
Cost of sales £2mln (@34%) which is about what its been)
Gross profit £3.9mln
£5.8mln of costs (2.9mln first half x 2) (£6.7mln for 2016)

gives approximate loss of £1.9mln

Take off another £1mln costs in 2018 at the same revenue gives £0.9mln loss.

Add in £500K for these new US accounts that are 'promising' to use probes...

Assume a bit of a better 2018 for the US accounts that tanked in 2017, plus perhaps some bigger stock orders (there was 300K lost in 2017).

That doesn't look far off break even end 2018 going into 2019.

[arf dysg] 18/1/2018 12:49

yump, that sounds right, the announcement sounds like £ 1.5m per year savings will be in place from some time in H1 2018.

[yump] 18/1/2018 12:04

Am I reading this part of the update right ?

"Cash overheads reduced by c.GBP0.5m in 2017 with a further GBP0.5m of reductions already in place for 2018 and further annualised savings of GBP0.5m planned for H1 2018"

So that makes £1.5mln a year taken out right ?

[yump] 18/1/2018 12:03

If they can show potential contributors that they will have taken £1.5mln out of costs by the end of 2018 and that there's a good chance of getting at least £500K extra revenue from the US, then I should think that makes raising money fairly easy. The prospect of being close to breaking into profit in 2019 would be a very tasty carrot at this share price level I think.

[gnnmartin] 18/1/2018 11:07

It doesn't look like the news will enable DEMG to raise much money. :-(

[lucicavi] 18/1/2018 10:29

The jam has gone

Only pips left

[yump] 17/1/2018 21:42

mrC2u

That's very kind of you to tell buywell that. Do you do assisted reading with infants ;-)

[mrc2u] 17/1/2018 20:23

"a previous evaluation of an alternative cardiac output monitoring technology to guide fluid management had, in contrast, shown an increased length of stay"Seems to go some way towards answering your question. Wonder who it was this time though?MrC

[buywell3] 17/1/2018 17:25

''The hospital evaluated ODM thoroughly in 150 patients undergoing either colorectal or urology surgery in November and December 2016. ''


Wonder if they evaluated any other monitors ?


Things have changed a lot since Dec 2016


No mention of how much this deal will be worth , the number will be needed to raise cash

[yump] 17/1/2018 12:59

Arf Dysy

I think it is as well. The question is whether to buy some more shares at say 1.5p, on the basis that a sudden movement towards break-even could jump the value, when actual profits are a possibility.

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 12:57

A final note on the announcement:

"this US hospital was able to use ODM to improve its patients' recoveries even though its starting points for lengths of stay for these types of surgery were already around half the NHS England average."

The hospital was already fairly efficient and ODM still managed to make an improvement.

Also, the implication for the NHS is that one can halve lengths of stay, even before ODM is used. That would have profound effects on the running of the NHS, its budgets, patient health, staff workload and hospital capacity.

[rumobejo] 17/1/2018 12:54

1p-lacing...

[arf dysg] 17/1/2018 12:52

I like this bit in the Deltex announcement:

"a previous evaluation of an alternative cardiac output monitoring technology to guide fluid management had, in contrast, shown an increased length of stay"

Ha haha haha ha ha ha haaaaaaaaaaa!
Pardon my mirth.

This bit's good, too:

"University Teaching Hospital [...] flagship site within a six hospital healthcare system [...] amongst the top ten hospitals in the USA."

Teaching hospital, hey? Presumably with the ability to lead the way and show other hospitals how to do it.


"... has now started implementing ODM into its standard operating procedures for both colorectal and urological surgery..."

Jolly good.

"Q4 2018 [...] flagship hospital expects to have started to roll ODM usage out into other surgical disciplines"

I notice that it's "disciplines" i.e. the plural, not just ONE other surgical discipline.

This gets better and better. This feels like a more significant announcement than most.

[yump] 17/1/2018 12:03

bullet ant

I would have to look up SOLA that was a long time ago in the days when such shares were being ramped heavily - I think by the same person who is no longer on the boards - vaguely remember getting rid of half near the top, but I think the rest went down the pan. Whether that came out even I have no idea.

Not sure what its got to do with DEMG though.

[yump] 17/1/2018 12:00

eclair

Thanks. What is that top post thing - never seen that before...

[gnnmartin] 17/1/2018 11:43

Nobody has commented yet on the sentence in the RNS that reads: "The clinicians leading the quality improvement project informed the Company that a previous evaluation of an alternative cardiac output monitoring technology to guide fluid management had, in contrast, shown an increased length of stay."

I thought it worth drawing attention to that.

[eclair] 17/1/2018 11:21

YumpGreat set of posts. For all us lth's you sum it up perfectly. I've averaged down too many times to risk it again, even at these levels.

[trentendboy] 17/1/2018 11:12

Now we have the "deal" I am sure we will get a discounted fund raising any time in the next week

Be interesting to see the price by which they get it away (if they do manage to)

[yump] 17/1/2018 09:55

Yes, they should find it easier to raise money now. That is a more significant announcement than they have had for a while and it sounds a bit more definite re the expansion to other hospitals.

[mally6] 17/1/2018 09:54

200k in cash u can tell whats going to happen here 1p placing coming very quickly

[orange1] 17/1/2018 09:46

They have put out the good news and on the basis of the hike in the share price will now seek to raise some money.

Incidentally, why is it that so often on the day or thereabouts that DEMG make an announcement LID does the same? It is uncanny. Today is no exception.

[yump] 17/1/2018 09:44

For those who are actually interested in DEMG itself:

The annual probe sales are about 12,000.
6 hospitals @ say 40 probes a month = 2880 a year.
That's a 25% rise taking the US sales from £1.9mln to £2.4mln
But its only £500K extra a year.

Along with 500K in annual savings + another 500K savings as per interims, that could take the annual loss close to 500K, instead of £2mln.

My issue is, we've seen these probe sales numbers quoted before and they did not come to pass.

The whole point is, it takes a lot of probe sales growth to make a difference to the bottom line. On the other hand, concerted probe sales growth across US accounts would make a big difference.

Judging by the lack of sales growth in the US, many of the accounts must be running at very low levels, so I would like to hear how many that is. Because accounts 'switching on' properly is going to make a much bigger difference than say 15% growth on accounts that are already running.

If half of them are only running at 10 a month and then they intend to switch on to 50 a month... that's a different story.

[bumpa33] 17/1/2018 09:30

that means skint btw.