Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[troublingtimes] 27/10/2017 09:12

chadders - love to hear your numbers if you have any?
I've explained my calculation so back up your comments or are you just part of the company's puff machine?

Quite a few of them on this board and lse working for the company's brokers and pr company.

The numbers are all from the company's own accounts and how it has performed in the past.

I've actually posted quite a lot on this company over on the lse boards. It is my comments there that forced the company to have to disclose its fake accounting in the q3.

Personally I think this company and its brokers have been doing a pretty good ramp themselves.

[chadders] 27/10/2017 08:40

troublingtimes, so you were saying 3 million in q4 which is ridiculous and a half million loss in h2 which is ridiculous.

Your PE of 15 is based on your ridiculous numbers. A blatant dermap as far as I'm concerned.

[troublingtimes] 27/10/2017 01:04

and I guess not to forget that q3 was not so bad as it could have been because they held back nuts so the pko was higher than it would have been otherwise. Won't have that to rely on in q4.

[troublingtimes] 27/10/2017 00:54

and chadders.. just for the record ..q3 production was 4734 tonnes of cpo. The rest of the sales came from inventory. So q4 sales will have to be what they produce in the quarter. If they follow past trends then q4 will be lower - on past trends that means about 3500 tonnes.

As mgmt said themselves in their podcast, q4 doesn't make much difference to them as it is the low season.

This is a highly seasonally business!

[troublingtimes] 27/10/2017 00:44

hi chadders. if you look at last year for an example, fruit supply was 24% lower in q4 than q3. You also notice they lost money last year in h2. This year is worse as they are finally admitting. Q3+Q4 are always the low season so always low production.

So they reported 2.4m profit in the half as you say. Obviously with a loss in h2 their total for 2017 is going to be less.

On revenue, as above, fruit will be weak and they already said cpo yield is low because of the weather conditions so if you take what we know upto q3 and add the extra q4 then you get between E28-29m.

The one thing we don't know is forward sales. they seem to amount to about E1m but we don't know how the auditor will treat it. We do know that forward sales are the expense of a 12% discount in cpo sales price.

No deramp - just someone bothering to look at the numbers.

[rivaldo] 26/10/2017 11:06

Back from hols, and surprised as everyone was about the Q3 update and the subsequent follow-up. Management have been extremely naïve in not flagging the lower Q3 production in the interim results, and naïve/negligent in not having satisfactory revenue recognition controls in place.

Nevertheless, I do believe the share price has over-reacted, as often happens in these circumstances. Management HAVE proven that they can build from scratch and in good time a highly profitable and successful operation which can be replicated elsewhere. They now have to show that they can similarly manage successfully expectations of a PLC and its shareholders.

Beaufort Securities' latest update post the Q3 production update concludes as follows - hopefully management have guided them prudently. If so, then the current share price is extremely cheap:

"Beaufort considers DekelOil is capable of producing as much as £2.0m free cashflow during 2017E, followed by around £5m the year after. Importantly this demonstrates management’s willingness to move its ambitious planning forward without directly exposing shareholders to a higher risk profile. Based on modestly revised 2017E and 2018E revenues estimates of €31.1m and €35.8m, delivering fully-diluted earnings 1.60p and 2.20p respectively, the shares now trade on forward multiples of just 6.5x and 4.7x respectively while offering yields of 1.7% and 1.9%. Beaufort retains its Buy recommendation on DekelOil, while repeating its price target of 23p/share."

[chadders] 26/10/2017 08:21

troublingtimes, they already have 25 million at end of q3 are you saying q4 will be just 3 million? And "definitely under 2 millon" what - net profit? There's 2.4 million net profit in H1 2017 alone. Sounds like a blatant deramp to me.

If so and just to be clear, your PE calculation is a figment of your imagination.

[troublingtimes] 25/10/2017 18:25

Just in case that is not clear .. this means this company is trading a PE of about 15x current year earnings.

[mount teide] 24/10/2017 15:38

Yet another self inflicted embarrassment - comment to management - "guys, regardless as to the operational progress made, if you act like a bunch of disingenuous amateurs don't be surprised if the market values your equity accordingly!"

Many i'm sure would like to think today's update is the NON Execs belatedly doing their job but, if their performance this year is a reliable guide, then that's probably being far too generous.

As for the NOMAD - doing a sterling job ensuring management meet the very low governance bar with respect to their AIM Responsibilities - incredibly, turning a blind eye when they fail to meet even that modest standard by allowing them to repeatedly duck well under it like a champion limbo dancer!

[mach100] 24/10/2017 15:04

GOSH. And now an accounting error. Really these guys are starting to look accident prone! They really need to get a grip. And then some. Or else whatever is left of their credibility will be gone.

[chadders] 24/10/2017 14:51

I see it as a good start but not necessarily a good q4.

[basem1] 24/10/2017 14:38

Does that mean a good start for Q4 then ?

[masurenguy] 23/10/2017 21:27

Re: #791. Good post MT - I entirely agree.

[chadders] 23/10/2017 09:16

I share the frustration and I have seen a decent contributor to my portfolio savaged. My view is unchanged regarding the investment case, this drop is way overdone, as these surprises often are, and I see it as an opportunity to buy at ridiculously low prices. No advice intended.

[mount teide] 23/10/2017 09:06

Share-price down 36% since the spring when management reported rising profitability and cash flow, and said they would be starting a progressive dividend policy!

It takes a special management skill to achieve that - DKL's more generous shareholders might call it p*ss poor communication, the market is clearly calling it the much more serious offence of disingenuous marketing or simply dishonesty, for which they already have 'form' from earlier in the year!

Clearly, for the extremely well remunerated Nomad and NON Execs to have been asleep on the job once is unfortunate but twice in the same year is totally unacceptable.

This management seems to have learnt nothing from the previous stunt(failure to report mill breakdown when it happened) which the market did't like at all by hammering the share price by 20%. Instead of learning a salutary lesson, what do the arrogant management do, repeat the offence and express surprise when the valuation gets another 20% haircut, by rushing out another RNS about an operational development that probably should have been implemented at least year ago since it's payback time period is very short and almost certainly would have already been recovered!

[ntv] 23/10/2017 08:19

If it only cost 100k to do it , why had not it been done two years ago?
Happy to announce this but NOT happy to announce mill breakdowns or low production
or the complete collapse of their market during a placing
If i had the monies i would sue them for failure to keep shareholders informed and make selling director buyback his shares he sold during the placing at that placing price

[mount teide] 23/10/2017 08:13

No quick rebound - so lets get out another RNS as soon as possible !

Market is clearly seriously p*ssed off and putting management on notice by sending out a very strong message - pull one more disingenuous stunt like that and the only way you will realise any value from this illiquid company is by selling it lock, stock and barrel.

[twistednik] 23/10/2017 08:11

Looks like a decent Rns with production upgrade.

Surprised the share price hasn’t budged yet. May look to take a small position.

Would be good to get your guys views on the rns and materiality of the upgrade ? Seems a bit strange after a profit warning a few days ago...

[rugs2] 20/10/2017 15:20

Lincoln on Sharetalk this coming Monday.

[mount teide] 20/10/2017 10:48

This executive board would do well to remember Warren Buffet's very astute observation:

“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it."

Trust is a very precious commodity and should be guarded like Fort Knox.

[mach100] 20/10/2017 10:36

I should say I only heard second hand that Lincoln is doing an interview. He usually does after the numbers but best to wait for confirmation. Apologies if it doesn't come about.
Another fall today so the rot hasn't stopped yet. Very disappointing to see us at these levels and with no real confidence to buy more.

[greenroom78] 19/10/2017 22:29

Management need to put their money where their mouths are. BoD purchases (assuming its no longer a closed period) would help stabilise things.

[mach100] 19/10/2017 22:04

Beaufort is a house broker and is on a retainer from the company. It does give some insights of course but is in effect paid for research. Lincoln Moore is doing an interview on Monday I gather so I expect some hopeful noises to come out of him.

[basem1] 19/10/2017 20:08

Informative posts over on the LSE bulletin board, Beauforts latest update after yesterday is still very bullish with 23p target. A minor blip and oversold.