Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[simon templar qc] 06/1/2018 18:32

When did anyone hear any music in Debenhams stores?

Things were different when I was younger people went out and enjoyed themselves where is the passion for enjoyment anymore?

There is no interaction anymore most people are glued to their mobiles or locked in their rooms on computers.

Debenhams need far more than a few ideas they need to consult psychologists to advise them how to react to a changed consumer habits and what is needed to bring them back to the High St.

Enjoy:

[ignoble] 06/1/2018 18:28

Well that cheered me up !

[simon templar qc] 06/1/2018 18:17

Don't Cry For Me Argentina is a fantastic song but some on here singing the song shedding the tears all in vain and all for the wrong reasons.

[simon templar qc] 06/1/2018 18:01

Blueahoes, niggle, topvest you are all realists, Debenhams is outdated and it cannot be turned around quick enough, even if it was possible.

The private equity sucked the life out of it when they sold the freeholds, that was the nail in the coffin.

Now the company are stuck with long leases and a tightening consumer environment who no longer have enough money to fill their wardrobes.

The BBC just mentioned House of Fraser desperate attempts to reduce their rents but its a last ditch cry before the last breath is made.

There are going to be casualties make no mistake about that all the retailers fighting out to the death.

A recession would surely be the end of Debenhams and a lot more retailers as well, and that may happen the way this county is at the moment.

I am mot overly impressed with the world economics at all as a matter of fact there is far too much debt in the world.

If I went back 25 years I made quite a lot of money on retailers, but that was when the consumer was flush with money and margins were far higher than is being made now.

It wont be just retailers supermarkets are also suffering a lot of pain, they are having to consolidate and think up new ideas like Sainsbury has.

[niggle] 06/1/2018 17:20

Just been in Debenhams Trafford Centre. Men’s clothing completely devoid of customers.

On the whole of the upper floor 6 people queuing at one till and 5 at the other.

Zara had about 50 in the queue.

New look empty.

Just an observation.

[topvest] 06/1/2018 17:04

I think people do care and don't want to see it happen. That won't change the reality though. Agreed - I think Debenhams, House of Fraser and Beales are all finished and insolvency is likely within the next couple of years.

[topvest] 06/1/2018 16:53

You are right that the high street and shopping centres need to adapt and become more of a leisure destination. Not sure what the answer is, but they will need to adapt. Shopping centre groups like Intu and Hammerson are taking a hammering and are not succeeding. They are now ex-growth. Its quite shocking when you re-visit a large centre like Merry Hill and you see the level of voids versus 2/3 years ago. I think we could see some shopping centres push through the tipping point on voids unless they find a way to attract customers back. The next recession will be the tipping point. When that is who knows, but we are unlikely to go more than 10 years since the last one!

[simon templar qc] 06/1/2018 16:46

topvest,

You have it correct Debenhams is so drab and dated, the CEO has recognised this but nothing tangible is happening. Even the gyms is a wait and see approach after a trial.

It would cost too much money to revamp every store and the CEO must know that.

To be honest costa coffee is just about everywhere now that is a waste of time.

No one mentions playrooms for kids and or some other activity to amuse youngsters to encourage the younger set in. John Lewis have sent the staff to the theatre to help them deal with customers, however that idea is flawed one needs to bring the theatre to a store.

If I was younger and had the time and money I would certainly like to redevelop a format to entice the customers in.

The current directors haven't enough vision at the moment. I have other ideas but will keep them to myself and one doesn't know what the future holds and if I see someone doing the right things.

[ignoble] 06/1/2018 16:38

Makes sense though ...

Amazon could tart up their distribution watehouses and let the retail customer buy direct
Be a bit like Argos I suppose

[ignoble] 06/1/2018 16:35

Big stores eased the need for warehousing.
Big store , fill it with product and no need for a storage warehouse
Big stores are warehouses, dressed up a bit and let retail customers in.

[topvest] 06/1/2018 16:26

QUANTAS - just saying it the way I see it. I'm quite interested in technological obsolescence. You can't fight it. Department stores are out of date and losing their relevance to many people. If I'm 51 and see them in this way, then what about 20-40 year olds who are on their mobiles 24/7 and buy from ASOS!?
You just can't fight it. Its called progress, whether you like it or not. Maybe I have expensive ways when it comes to clothing, but I genuinely wouldn't be able to find anything in a Debenhams store that I wanted. It's all Wrangler, Levi or their own cheap brands (all are ex-growth and not really selling). If you want cheap clothes then Primark or H&M is the place to go.

Simon Templar QC - good post. Agree with most of what you say. You seem to be a retail specialist. I like physical stores as well, but I think we have to acknowledge that the younger generation don't see it in the same way. For what its worth I think M&S will need to sharpen their game as they are going to struggle as well 5 years from now. Retail is definitely not the place to be as an investor over the next few years, unless you are shorting. Affordability is a problem with negative real earnings growth, the next recession is on the way sometime soon, online is disrupting the sector and staff cost pressures are horrendous. There are also far too many shops and restaurants. The worst performing sector has been restaurants, but retail has been pretty awful as well. Expect more of the same in 2018 and more insolvencies is my tip, sad though it is for those involved. Companies that are mediocre will die. That's capitalism.

[nortic 007] 06/1/2018 16:07

Just a spectator at the moment:)

[1fox1] 06/1/2018 15:53

Hey up. Must be getting near value. Nortic 007 has arrived. Good day sir.

[simon templar qc] 06/1/2018 15:46

tim3

I wouldn't buy any large retailer until there is more certainty in the short term however if I had to see a survivor on a listed company it would be Marks.

According to Paul Scott who posts on Stockopedia and to be fair I haven't read the full report on his take on Debenhams, I am not registered, he sees a margin of 1.8% on Debenhams now which concurs with my analysis, well Marks is making more than twice that.

With a margin of 1.8% sales only need to slip 2% with continued discounting and the company is in trouble.

Unfortunately the department stores started to lose out when stores started to be selective on what they stocked like Currys.

John Lewis is also struggling but its got a fantastic brand image just like Marks and that could save them in the short to medium term.

I think Oddey who has a short on Debenhams has a good take on both House of Fraser and Debs, its which one hits the buffer first.

As for Mike Ashly well he has stakes in lots of retailers, I just cannot see him bidding a decent price for any of the larger ones when they are struggling to turn around.

I have said all along, wait until there is more clarity or see which ones go first then look at what is left.

I happen to like retail stores I like the touchy feely of good quality stuff, I don't think we will see an end to the department stores but there will be less of them going forward.

So in conclusion my advice would be wait there is no rush and see how things unfold.

[nortic 007] 06/1/2018 15:05

Afternoon sir :)

[qantas] 06/1/2018 15:03

topvest

Free trolley ? Can't imagine the type of person you are.

"A load of old rubbish" or
"More choice than ever before"?.

So many monsters on this chat line.

Please do do your own research.

[ignoble] 06/1/2018 14:48

Lot of truth in what you say

[topvest] 06/1/2018 14:07

Yes, its sad. Business can't live by its past though. It may be interesting to have a long history, but its not very relevant as most shoppers don't care. I can find anything I want on Amazon (excluding top brands and food) and it arrives free of charge the next day. Debenhams and House of Fraser don't really stock anything I want to buy 90% of the time. If someone gave me a trolley to fill up free of charge I would struggle to find anything I wanted. The clothes are rubbish and they don't stock anything truly special or even cheap. I'm not alone as the LfL sales performance tells a story. Mediocrity doesn't cut it in today's highly competitive market place.

[qantas] 06/1/2018 13:41

topvest Amazon is the same it is just a multi retailer with lots of questionable small suppliers. It is also investing in bricks and mortar.

It just doesn't give me the magic quality or enthuse me as brands do.

The standard of something as measured against other things of a similar kind; the degree of excellence of something.

HISTORY OF DEBENHAMS. Debenhams traces its history to 1778 when William Clark established a drapers store at 44 Wigmore Street in London's West End selling expensive fabrics, bonnets, gloves and parasols. In 1813 William Debenham invested in the firm which then became Clark & Debenham.