Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 10/1/2018 19:52

You would expect 25p to be a major resistance level, would be a worry if breached.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 19:25

itcm

The analysts got it wrong with Sainsbury they were up. I think you are right Supermarkets done better than non food. The reason money is tightening and everyone has to eat.

Foxy,

Definitely going lower, if Marks and JL are poor, then completion will get more fierce.

[1fox1] 10/1/2018 18:34

Topaz............You're getting a bit of your own medicine. I might be tempted but going lower. Going down as they say in Are you being served. 20p now a distinct possibility

[ltcm1] 10/1/2018 18:33

I have never understand clearly the difference between dedication and obsession. Anyway Calvin Klein make out obsession is an attractive feature. Simon I look forward to your M&S JL updates.

I think supermarkets have done better than other retailers because in many cases they have been able to reduce quantities instead of increasing prices. You can't really saw a leg off a table so perhaps JL won't do that well.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 18:24

Not at all it gives me a break from far more serious matters. I feel better knowing I am helping investors from losing money.

Bit like a charity worker!

edit:

You sound like you have taken to drink to steady your nerves.

[topazfrenzy] 10/1/2018 18:18

I'm sorry but you must be raving mad, eating, drinking, breathing retailers and their woes ALL DAY LONG!!

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 18:01

Readers any guess what John Lewis will say in its trading update tomorrow?

My guess is like for like sales struggling at JL and if they do rise its less than +1% at most or -1%

On profits I see a larger fall on last year and worrying.

edit;

Profits lower on competitive pricing and warning on profit share.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 17:25

topafrenzy,

Just trying to save prospective investors from losing money with my accurate take on the current situation.

It would appear the shorters agree with my perception of the company.

Of course you must DYOR which QANTAS keeps reminding everyone.

Who would have thought Debenhams would have been a penny share?

[topazfrenzy] 10/1/2018 17:17

Stressed? More like bonkers you are, obsessive beyond belief!

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 17:01

Shorts gone up again to near 15% the highest ever, Blackrock increased their short position.

They appear confident the share price going lower.



Going to be no value here there are no tangible assets worth a light when you consider the long leases in billions.

edit:

JP Morgan a declared short position

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 16:09

Foxy,

Just stressed today and the duplicated post an accident.

Be interesting tomorrow on a number of fronts.

itcm1

I thought that was a possibility and the proposing the dividend done to bolster the share price.

or even a gamble the performance would improve. Moodys seem to think the company wrong to pay the dividend and it will have to be cut going forward.

[1fox1] 10/1/2018 15:57

ST. Why are you shouting?

[ltcm1] 10/1/2018 15:08

Anyone think a Rights Issue may happen??? I know they have the debt facility and don't need it to keep going but then again if things were to worsen a RI would be near impossible. At least this way they could keep the Capex up and enact the Chairman's plan. A 100m RI might be the thing if digital and the new store formats are gaining traction.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 12:45

OWENSKY,

I KNOW A NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE A DEBS NEAR THEM AND THE COMMENTS SEEM TO BE DEBS IS TOO DEAR WHEN OFF SALE, DRAB STORE, NOT BUSY.

DEBENHAMS AGM TOMORROW MAY HAVE MORE NEWS ON TRADING SINCE PROFIT WARNING SO MAYBE MORE WEAKNESS TO COME.

MORE RETAIL RESULTS FROM MARKS AND AOL. MARKS WILL BE INTERESTING ON FOOD AND CLOTHES. ANALYSTS SEE WEAKNESS SEES WEAKNESS.

ALSO JOHN LEWIS TU.

ALL THE SIGNS ARE FOOD IS UP NON FOOD STRUGGLING FOR MOST MAJOR PLAYERS.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 12:45

OWENSKY,

I KNOW A NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE A DEBS NEAR THEM AND THE COMMENTS SEEM TO BE DEBS IS TOO DEAR WHEN OFF SALE, DRAB STORE, NOT BUSY.

DEBENHAMS AGM TOMORROW MAY HAVE MORE NEWS ON TRADING SINCE PROFIT WARNING SO MAYBE MORE WEAKNESS TO COME.

MORE RETAIL RESULTS FROM MARKS AND AOL. MARKS WILL BE INTERESTING ON FOOD AND CLOTHES. ANALYSTS SEE WEAKNESS SEES WEAKNESS.

ALSO JOHN LEWIS TU.

ALL THE SIGNS ARE FOOD IS UP NON FOOD STRUGGLING FOR MOST MAJOR PLAYERS.

[owenski] 10/1/2018 11:27

DEB's on yet another Blue Cross sale @70%

Looks like they cant give the stuff away, their margins must be awful.

The two shop's I looked in still seem empty, they've got too many expensive outlets serving the size of a reduced business demand, trading will get worse here imo.

[ltcm1] 10/1/2018 11:04

niggle it's all to do with the government IMO because the business rates on these prime sites are ginormous. The playing field is totally skewed right now in favour of online. The govt have been very slow in coming up with ways to tax online sales and reduce the imbalance.

It is clear something will have to give and a crunch point will arrive in the next two or three years regarding online and retail. If Debs can hang around for long enough then they may get some relief from the business rates plus rents will have to adjust also.

[niggle] 10/1/2018 09:27

Simon - it’s got little to do with the Government and more to do with the man’s dogged determination to trade on a UK high street. Ted Baker is a shining example of an innovative company developing an international business. I think it’s still part of Pentland who have a good history of developing international brands - Speedo, Kickers etc.

(Even if their footwear is ‘interpreted’ from Loake and Paul Smith! ;)

[niggle] 10/1/2018 09:19

According to Drapers Record, insurance is being pulled on New Look. It’s really only the start - suppliers are not daft and will have been pulling away for a while.

Having been stung on other retail collapses, since suppliers these days are very savvy on who they do business with.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 07:57

Theo Paphitis has blamed the Government for allowing the UK's beleaguered retail sector to slide "closer and closer towards the precipice".

His clothes lingerie business has seen a fall in sales.

Ted Baker sees a rise in sales.

[simon templar qc] 10/1/2018 07:45

hpg

I got the figures from the website, you are including Waitrose in their figures John Lewis stores and online not at all good if one takes into new stores and cost inflation. I make increase of 1.5% for 23 weeks,but like for like will be lower.

As you say the TU update is tomorrow which will show like for like. I expect that to be poor.

On other matters seems most people are spending on food Sainsburys beat market expectations, the food sector up, however in part this is food inflation, stripping this out that is also les appetizing.

But with regards to non food Moss Bross is the latest to warn today, footfall well down again.

Like it or not non food is struggling at the moment the consumer less money to spend and the priority goes on food.

[topazfrenzy] 10/1/2018 00:12

Simon whatnot, I just don't see why you keep at it when you are not invested and hate the whole sector, why don't you move on!

[qantas] 09/1/2018 23:53

Want to make money....

Please do your own research....

[hpcg] 09/1/2018 22:38

Simon - where did you get the JLP numbers? Their Christmas trading announcement is on Thursday ( ), and their weekly snapshots show ahead of last year and the year before - most weeks by around a percent. Week 23 was down by 2.4% on last year, but the year is 5% ahead

By the way I completely agree Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, and for that matter any substantial city will support a healthy retail sector. These will be driven from the premium stores down, i.e. Harvey Nics in Leeds, Selfridges in Birmingham.

--------------------------------
Back on DEB, and looking at the store locator, you have to worry a bit about the likes of Chesterfield, Mansfield, Oldham, Walton-on-Thames, Orpington, Wandsworth, Clapham Junction (in the old Arding and Hobbs building, along with a TK-Max). These are comparatively secondary shopping areas. There is a Primark in Mansfield, in Chesterfield, in Loughborough. At least in Mansfield they are up against Bealles too, so maybe not the last domino to fall. The Mansfield womens wear selection, isn't hugely inspiring. Nottingham has John Lewis, Zara, Paul Smith, Ted Baker, Karen Millen, Dr Martens, many more and a host of independents. Then there are the accessory stores which surround, bars, restaurants and things to do. In other words a day out as well as a pop down the shops. DEB needs those towns and smaller cities to keep up their traffic and at the same time it needs to keep its wallet share of that traffic up. As we can see from the accounts a failure on either account and red ink is not far behind.

[simon templar qc] 09/1/2018 20:19

topafrenzy look I don't want you or anyone else losing money, I could reverse my tactics and try and take a positive stance but there is no evidence I have seen which supports that view.

Its not just Debs struggling right now so is HOF and John Lewis, however none of those are listed. Similar views however on both companies.

The only large retailer who I think has a chance which is listed is Marks and its a risky shot a the moment with no real clarity.

More trading updates tomorrow.