Dart Share Discussion Threads

[11023154] 21/5/2018 12:23

thanks, v interesting. When did you first buy out of interest?

[woozle1] 21/5/2018 12:11

I initially invested because at that price it was trading a 75% discount to net assets, which was cash and planes. At the time the Fowler Welch business was worth more than the airline business and so it was a free option on Jet2.com. The rest is luck!

Hindsight is a beautiful thing and I'm not going to give you b/s about how I saw this coming. One thing I can say from years of investing is that if you buy really cheap stocks you are (i) unlikely to loose money and (ii) something good eventually happens but you may have to wait a long time.

w1

[11023154] 21/5/2018 10:34

2008 the stock was 12p but generally 60p for the year and previous years.2018 - £8.50.

CT & Woozle how did you find this stock back then? Did you take a macro view into your perspectives?

Quite an astonishing investment.

[woozle1] 16/5/2018 16:20

I think it's EZJ announcement that it is going to beef up its holiday operations and not a Thongo Short that has caused a sell off. To date, EZJ hotels are via booking.com, transfers, baggage and in resort support are added extras. DTG buys beds and offers all of the above included.

Moreover, Jet2 Holidays has an 11 year headstart. Not sure whether EZJ are about more cross selling of hotels or serious about getting into the package holiday industry and which sector of the market.

w1

[11023154] 16/5/2018 15:10

hope so I like his track record. I mean the stock has gone 30-40% since he was interested. I don't short stock but surely there are better options out there...? I mean surely this is a serious realisation of how wrong he can be sometimes...?

[shaker44] 16/5/2018 14:44

Maybe tongo going short again.hehe

[11023154] 16/5/2018 14:24

it slips whenever I post tbh

[woozle1] 15/5/2018 19:31

Interesting that DTG slipped after Easy said that they would focus on holidays. What they meant is that they want to focus on hotels. In other words doing what Ryanair do with their hotel offering. Neither RYA or EZJ, so far, include transfers and in resort assistance and there's little sign that they want to go.
w1

[11023154] 10/5/2018 22:31

I think long term next 5-10 years this company will dominate the market. I come at things from Marco perspective. Can see us in 5-10years time looking at one of Europe’s most dominant airlines and undoubtedly the UKs best. My main thesis for this is wealth division brought about from capitalist economy which will continue to keep low and middle incomes the same which allows jet2 to cater for this growing market of consumer. This has the potential to go another 100% from here. I’ve been here since 2013. I also think this company is probably financial crash proof as well. People don’t give up their holidays unless when they’re working hard, and if work is harder to find they’ll need their holidays more. Yes it will bring about a blip but cannot see how it won’t return especially with brexit (positive). Good luck all. My forecast for 2022 is £20.

[castleford tiger] 10/5/2018 18:58

In the accounts but I guess same for everyone
Tiger

[meijiman] 09/5/2018 16:20

How long do the fuel hedges last?

[castleford tiger] 28/4/2018 18:27

thanks Minky I am hearing big numbers too

tiger

[mervin4] 28/4/2018 15:26

Let there be more gains to come.

[minky] 28/4/2018 15:14

An agent in the central England had a 164% increase in value of JET2 holidays sold last year over the previous year. If they start flying from other airports I cannot see why the same sales growth could not be achieved by other agents local to that airport. This was down to departures from BHX.

[woozle1] 28/4/2018 14:10

why o why did you ever sell 500k of shares. I've 210k and never sold. Trying to second guess the market is crazy when you have a company with integrity and a good business and long term prospects.

w1

[castleford tiger] 28/4/2018 10:20

Agree and whilst I have been guilty of top slicing ( I had to I owned 2.66% at 16p ) I would have been sitting on over 40m now had I kept them all.

The story at Jet 2 holidays and travel is only just beginning to bear fruit.

Lets see how the last years numbers stack up.

However in year ending march 17 we flew 7 million
in Year ending march 18 that we await 9.6m is my estimate ( two new bases)
In current year we have 12 m flights

As you can see the numbers are close... up 2.60m and a further 2.4m this year.
The pace of expansion is not slowing.

I found my first years holiday report just 10 years ago.

We took 23,000 people on holiday.
I estimate 2,300,000 to 2,500,00 in the last year.
A further increase in 2018 to 2,700,000 to 2,900,00

We are ground handling to improve efficiency and by next summer all our new planes will have arrived with the fleet just shy of 100.

Finally the forecasts


2018-03-31
2,398.50 112.95 62.63p 13.6 0.6 21% 5.90p 0.7%

2019-03-31
2,855.00 110.00 61.00p 13.9 -5.4 -3% 6.59p 0.8%

2020-03-31
3,136.00 119.70 67.30p 12.6 1.2 10% 7.02p 0.8%
AS YOU Can see the p/e even based on these silly figures peaks at 13.9 x in this current year. I however fail to see how another half a billion of sales will not increase the overall profits.
My guesstimate for current year Summer 18 is EPS close to 80p hence my 10.00 target based on 12x

Tiger

[woozle1] 28/4/2018 08:59

If you'd sold to take profits, you'd probably have missed the rise from 80p to 850p. Say no more.

Lots more to come from Jet2. In addition to Tui and Thomas Cook, my guess is that they've also got their eyes on Ryanair's 20%+ operating margins at Stanstead.

Just by being at Stanstead Jet2 will do well. In analogous to ScS that positions itself next to DFS on large retail sites and piggy backing of the advertising and offering an alternative. Given that Ryanair has a reputation for the poor treatment of customers, this should be easy pickings.

It's way too early to sell.

w1

[castleford tiger] 28/4/2018 06:32

Our Summer 19 programme represents yet another year of growth, with more than 12 million seats on sale. This means a capacity increase of 12%, with over 1,200 weekly flights operating to 58 popular sun and city destinations in Europe during peak periods

To support this huge Summer 19 programme, we will operate 94 aircraft in Summer – including 34 brand new Boeing 737-800 NG aircraft

Jet2.com has triumphed in the 2018 TripAdvisor Travellers’ Choice™ awards for airlines, winning the Best Airline – UK and Best Low-Cost Airline – Europe prizes for the second year running, as well as scooping the Best Economy Class - Europe award.

Since we started operating from Manchester Airport in 2004, we have enjoyed tremendous success and growth, thanks to the popularity of our friendly low fares and great value package holidays. As a result of that growth, we have over 2.5 million seats on sale to and from 42 destinations from Manchester Airport this summer, representing our biggest ever summer programme.

FAO of JF as they missed these snippets.
Role on the results

Tiger

[shaker44] 28/4/2018 02:21

well you took that apart rather well Tiger! thanks

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2018 18:30

ok read it now.

Is it an airline or a holiday company with its own airline.?

The company saw a drop in margin in the first half in my opinion as "it bought business at the new bases"
With over 40% increase in capacity that's very normal.
I note no mention of the speed and scale of the holiday division ( just 8 years old its no 2 in the market)
The line about upgrades 90% is silly.
Dart are very good at matching capacity /holidays/ and flights.
7 m flew with Monarch and that's gone.
Dart shares are expensive? Well based on the silly forecasts possibly but they are miles out.
Margins will come under pressure due to rising accommodation and higher fuel.

Err do they think these costs are fixed well in advance. Fuel is hedged up to 2 years ahead.

Anyway JF you have missed so much.
What's capacity growth this year?
What's the extra seats per plane mean to costs.
What's capacity increase for summer 19 ? The numbers are out there.

What about possible new bases? Bristol or the south?

I am afraid you look at Ardens numbers and then wrote an article to fit.
You need to understand the company.

Never mind lets talk in a year or so.

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2018 08:35

sub note to the above.
I bought CVR on the first drop at 130p after IC said buy at 280p.

Just 5 days later it was all gone. Bust
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2018 08:34

Hi

not seen it yet but I am about to guess

They are looking at forecasts that are totally out of date AGAIN.

We have last years figures to see yet and my prediction is that we are close to 2.5m holidays up from 1.75m
That's some growth.
For current year I think 3.00m holidays and another 20% increase in turnover on last years yet to be seen but ABOVE MARKET numbers.
The people writing this stuff don't understand DTG and most of the time they have just the forward numbers to go on.
I still think the 10.00 target I placed is fair and I have raised to 15.00 the 2020 target.
Dart are taking market share, they have an improved fleet of 90 aircraft.

Happy to see a dip as I am looking for such a pull back to load up.

Now lets see what they have to say.
My paper version arrives tomorrow.
Tiger

[gersemi] 27/4/2018 05:01

It's never wrong nor foolish to take money off the table. When I can get a nervous twitch in my solar plexus then I know it's time to step back a little

[shaker44] 27/4/2018 02:45

good morning Tiger, how do you view the arguments made by Inv Chronicle in their sell note today??
Conscious that dtg has had a very good and wonder if top slicing at least is a good ides?