Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[cinoib] 10/7/2002 09:16

Well lads and ladas, I for one have had enough and bailed out at 45 and am pleased when I saw the close last night but kicking myself for not getting out at 55 when I was thinking about it. I'll be back when I see some stability in the market.

[millionaire] 10/7/2002 09:03

DNK is a steal at this level on a six month view.
It may go 5p lower but I don't see the point in waiting
for that. If you firmly believe that Danka is cheap now
(as I do) then buy. I have been trading DNK for 4 years
and never before has such potential been presented.
Unfortunately stock market sentiment has clouded the
judgement of many and I am sure will continue to do so.

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 08:47

SS,I don't care for the tone of some of ff posts but does appear to be able to turn around quickly on a sixpence knowing time to go long and short to acheive maximum profits.As maxbubble says ff adjusts to trend/sentiment/results quickly.Like you cash waiting to buy cheaply for DNK has always come with a health and wealth warning,as share price can fall just as far as it has risen.In these markets it a possibly that investors may see 20p.Shorter have plenty of food on which to feed and sufficient numbers to drive share price down.Good better than expected results in August should stop the rot but shorters will bash on any evidence of bad news.As you say plenty of time to wait-no rush.imho.

[sofa_surfer] 10/7/2002 08:46

Then I'll wait until does, no rush. :)

[bridggar] 10/7/2002 08:41

I can't wait for the markets to turn. But at this rate, it could be some time (if you believe the doomsters....)

[sofa_surfer] 10/7/2002 08:36

ok, I don't really care about ff. Agree with your last comments max, crazy tough times at the mo,....although I can't wait for the market to turn, cash waiting to take advantage of all this oversold/cheap stock.

SS :/

[maxbubble] 10/7/2002 08:24

sofa valid point - before the results he predicted £1.20 - so does not always get it right - but he adjusts to trend/sentiment/results quickly and thats what makes you successful.

i also feel the FSA should abolish shorting from the markets!!! - buying and selling should be healthy enough for the markets and if they are overpriced stay out - but dont bring good companies down with a chance of survival in hard times.

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 08:22

SS,
to his credit ff called high at $5 at which point states shares sold,consistently called 37p and suggests it could go lower.Therefore spot on so far.How many investors have held all the way down from 86p and wish that they had sold? Unless you have traded would be left averaging down and increasing your losses or watch substantial reduction in your profits ! Hence wait and see approach.

Share price continues to fall 38/40.5p. Interesting to see how many buyers jump in at 40p offer price.(btw i'm sure that an excellent long term buy at that price but how low will dnk fall before they bounce?) Uncertainty until results published in August, a long time in a bear market.

[sofa_surfer] 10/7/2002 08:15

max, come on now, in this market ff could have called any stock stock a short and he would of been right!!

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 08:12

ff - I don't like shorters but the question has to be asked.

At what price would you be a buyer of DNK/DANKY?
also
What is your advice for holders?

[maxbubble] 10/7/2002 08:09

ff - well done you called this exactly right -blunt style - but right

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 08:03

Make that 39/41. A fall of a little over 17% between bid/offer if you bought at 47p yesterday and 7% on the day.

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 08:00

Looks to be opening at 40/41.Will look for 15K buy @40p!

[matt1231] 10/7/2002 07:58

oaklandsway,

technical issues are a fact of life and can be resolved.The problem with shorters on the other is another.Always difficult calling bottom but watching to see whether DNK can hold support at 38p.imho.

[oaklandsway] 10/7/2002 01:52

As far as I know, all technical issue regarding the Oracle can be resolved. Oracle is used to increase efficiency. Danka can do business very well without Oracle so Oracle will not stop Danka from doing business.

If Oracle affected Q1 revenue badly then Danka would have issue a profit warning.

Once again Danka is always vulnarable amid chaotic market's sentiments but if Danka can report good eps in simple accounting then the share price will fly.

Remember, fresh money will be flowing into good small cap with much simpler accounting. Investors are moving their money from big companies with complex accounting until US government resolves the matters. We should see more chaos in several more big firms. IMO, DYOR, etc.

[miata] 10/7/2002 00:01

There are several schemes with different rules. For example under one scheme the employees can choose to buy or not in any month and the purchase will be made on the last day of the offer period or the earliest date thereafter and the offer periods for that scheme are Quarterly.

What you may think are sales are only shown as sales as the price is below market, I believe them to be purchases as the are at the calculated prices and they must be held for two years to be tax free under US law. Indeed all the 100 ADR purchases yesterday come under a scheme which started on 1/4/02 and the internal regulations of that scheme prohibit sales within six months so they must have been purchases.

[matt1231] 09/7/2002 23:46

Still watching & waiting on the sidelines for buy signal.Graphwise shorters seem to be firmly in the driving seat,warranting concern about downward momentum.With falling markets, uncertainties creeping in, can see no evidence of any real support.Have to agree $2.38 close (down from $5 highs) not looking good tonight on volumes in the US of 816,200. Also of worry to me is prospects of total capitulation.Without news, does UK fall below 38p or can DNK bounce it's way out of trouble? That's the $64 question? imho.dyor.

[forfaiter] 09/7/2002 21:53

Plenty of volume in the US and no bounce, this is looking like one sick donkey.

[oaklandsway] 09/7/2002 20:48

Why Down Badly

I think mainly because institutions do not involve (especially buying, until now institution is only doing 3% of trading) so shorters (especially retail & non-i watch) can enjoy their action.

It is happening not only for Danky.

[zedder] 09/7/2002 19:48

QUARTERLY FIGURES DATE

Looking back, this Qs figures were released on 27th July in 2000, and 8th August in 2001. Given the problems the company was having last year and the DSI sale at about that time which might explain the later date in 2001, I would hope this Qs figures will come out before the end of July. I've not seen anything official to back this up, unless anybody else has.

So bottom line is that we should know for sure what shape the company is in within the next month. The shorters are having their fun (will be interesting to see the figures to 15th July which will come out 8 business days later on at the moment, but a formal announcement of the earnings date might well see a sharp change of direction as others that trade in and out of DANKY position themselves for what all us longs hope will be further evidence of the turnaround.

Regards
Zedder

[oaklandsway] 09/7/2002 18:56

Thanks solis for your study, we really appreciate if you could give us further detail. BG's contact

[easykill] 09/7/2002 18:51

solis

on page 21 it states this :

Earnings Per Share

Following EPS of 3.0p for the year to March 2002, we are forecasting fully diluted eps to reach 4.5p this year and to grow by 160% next year to 11.8p. In calculating this we have assumed 37% tax rates, although this gives no credit for the Group's £250m (Beeson Gregory estimates) of tax losses. Our dilution calculation takes into account the dilutive effects of the convertible participating shares.

[solis] 09/7/2002 18:37

Must go as have to deliver parcel to couriers. Will catch up tomorrow.

Good night and lets hope there is some bounce from the US 10% drop before the close.

[solis] 09/7/2002 18:34

Oaks

My own analysis (very much my own) DYOR on conservative basis estimates that PBT for 1st Qtr will be in range of £2.4 - 7.2M barring catastrophes which I cannot forecast. Therefor Beeson estimate of £36.1 for year is eminently feasible. Assuming tax at high 25% that gives us 10.7p on March Y/end shares of 254M.

Has anyone got a contact in Beeson to investigate further ???

[oaklandsway] 09/7/2002 18:24

Solis,
I did not look at detail calculation but just take the number from BG as a target (unfortunately can't be consider as a consensus).

I can't say that 4.5 is conservative or not but we need a guidance. BG is Danka's house broker so they should have access to dig information and data. BG might have got advise from Danka before publishing their study so 4.5p could have been verified by Danka.