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[purchaseatthetop] 09/11/2024 07:18

Final results…

Revenue of £3.5m in the first quarter of FY25, being 25% higher than the same period in FY24

Interim results….

Revenue of £5.6m (H1 FY 2024: £5.8m)

So Q2 25 revenue of £2.1m as compared to £2.8m in Q2 24.

Yuck.

[inthetin] 08/11/2024 23:45

How long until the next fundraise? 12 months?

By which time, Cronin will have pocketed another £400K (5 x £80K) - not a bad return.

Keep the dream/story going. That's all that matters.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 18:58

Over all this we have Cronin putting £80k of his cash into this since September that's not small potatoes. He's confident

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 18:54

Looks like the Chairman's statement is wrong. Not good that

[inthetin] 08/11/2024 18:28

Reporting accuracy isn't their strong point. Coming to think of it, I'm not sure that they've got one.

[indiestu] 08/11/2024 18:10

hatfullofsky



Read page - 6 Chairmans statement, either the headline figures or the Chairmans statement is wrong.

[inthetin] 08/11/2024 15:48

£8.7M - Trade receivables as at 31/03/2024
(£4.2M) - Received during P/E 30/09/2024 (58% of £7.3M)
(£0.7M) - Received between 01/10/2024 & today (8% of £8.5M)
------
£3.8M - Still outstanding (7+ months old)
------

Little wonder that they've got to fundraise every 5 minutes. They don't know how to make a profit and they can't even collect the cash for the sales that they have made.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 15:25

A total of £7.3m cash was collected from customers during the period (and a further £1.4m since the period end).

In the period, our non-current trade receivables such as contract assets, reported in the non-current assets part of the balance sheet, increased to £3.3m (FY 2024: £2.4m), where revenue has been recognised in accordance with IFRS 15, and will be paid for over the period of the contract. The remainder of trade receivables included in non-current assets related to accrued income from contracts. Approximately 58% of cash collection during H1 FY 2025 related to trade receivables from FY 2024 and a further 8% of FY 2024 trade receivables has been collected since period end.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 15:23

Indiestu -

"H1 revenue was split 3.5m Q1 and 2.1m Q2? That being the case (and I did not pick this out of the results so I am taking it on face value). At FY24, FY25 Q1 was reported as 5.6m so overstated by nearly 40%!"

That's not true FY24 reported 25/07/24

- Q1 Revenue of £3.5m FY25, being 25% higher than the same period in FY24

[inthetin] 08/11/2024 14:55

We're probably being well and truly screwed by IntelliSmart while Cronin is merrily 'negotiating' with them.

Effing clueless.

[inthetin] 08/11/2024 14:36

Why are they having so much trouble getting their customers to pay them?

Of the £8.7M owed to them as at 31/03/24, they are still owed £3.8M - that makes that debt more than 7 months old.

WTF is going on?

[chesty1] 08/11/2024 14:30

That's me out today.....Pulling funds out of the market funds needed.

Best of luck to all CYAN holders.

[indiestu] 08/11/2024 14:28

Historically, our revenue recognition is heavily weighted toward the final quarter of our financial year, as order completions and deployments often peak near year-end. We expect this seasonal trend to continue, with a substantial proportion of this year's revenue materialising in Q4.

I don't understand this. The business does not provide a seasonal service or product. They supply smart meters. Smart meters are installed all year round, installations should be growing at measured rate so it should be fairly easy to predict the demand curve. Surely they don't make the full batch to fulfil an order, supply them and then ask for the money. Why are they holding 567,000 MCU in stock for delivery in H2 FY25? Why don't they deliver some and book the revenue. Why are they sitting on so much stock if orders are signed?

Why are Cyan unable to negotiate contracts and payment terms that give them a less lumpy revenue stream?

H1 revenue was split 3.5m Q1 and 2.1m Q2? That being the case (and I did not pick this out of the results so I am taking it on face value). At FY24, FY25 Q1 was reported as 5.6m so overstated by nearly 40%!

How can they have disappointed so badly on H1 revenues? How do they keep losing money on the product? It's a simple smart meter, they seem unable to make it for a price that competes. This will not change if they scale. They are still going to make a loss and the loss is going to widen.

The FY25 revenues will be hyped up to prepare for another round of fundraising next year. These guys are just milking this and the cash raised is getting lost in India's corrupt governance and corporate world.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 14:22

Paul Scott not too impressed :

Paul’s opinion - very negative, I think this could end up at zero. The numbers are a Victor Meldrew for me, and I wouldn’t even bother looking at forecasts, given the track record. Happy to be proven wrong, but why take the risk of getting involved here?

[tightfist] 08/11/2024 13:37

Yes, investing in technology at this stage to maintain their technical - performance edge is encouraging..I also agree about margin enhancement. However, I for one are not clear about the proposed new business model and capital structures. The JV partner(s) will want their pound of flesh, so it's wait and see as far as I am concerned; I have put my faith in JC and HP to ensure they are sensible deals for all stakeholders.

[cousinit] 08/11/2024 12:26

As MB has pointed out, it seems important to me that CYAN is still investing in their offering and also focusing on cost. It is clear that there have been cost challenges in India (even if these are initial costs where there is then payback over the first 8-10 years) in spite of the reliability in meeting the required SLAs.

CYAN bidding as an AMISP should take out a layer of margin that is being added on to hardware costs where supply contracts are allocated from other AMISP bids.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 12:07

9p will offer plenty of support, if it gets that low

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2024 12:07

Some good posts today (SBP / MB / DTB et al)

Clearly there is execution risk on achieving 29m revenue in H2, I agree with the concerns. They achieved 13m in H2-24 so need to scale significantly.

H1 revenue was split 3.5m Q1 and 2.1m Q2

Great point regarding Gross Profit Margin at 41%, Zeus has 35% for FY25 so I agree with SBP that it's a margin beat, that will hopefully flow into the bottom line.

This was from the FY24 results

Gross margin in the first two years of projects in India is expected to be around 35-40% due to revenue on hardware in the first two years of a project. After year two of each project it is expected gross margins of greater than 90% will be achieved due to the transition to services revenue

Funding seems secure -

The Company has been approached with alternative sources of finance, to support growth, such as secured loans, which it could accept should such a requirement arise. It also continues to discuss options of taking equity into its subsidiary in India.

Valuation of 38m with an expected uPAT of 2m seems a little punchy x17 on a value perspective but on a growth potential perspective I think there is a great opportunity

[multibagger] 08/11/2024 11:59

Hi DTB :)

The reality of India is its truly enormous scale - a population of 1400 million !
28 States and 8 Union Territories in a loosely federal kind of government. Hence elections will be happening somewhere several times in the year and CYAN is working across at least 10 states in India. Elections are staggered over 2-3 months due to the logistics involved - that is the reality. So the issue of delays due to "elections" is more understandable than "leaves on the tracks" kind of excuses we hear.

On the flip/positive side - we have about 14% of the total smart meter market and 42% of the RF market and have won 25% of the volumes announced in India and clear indication that there is more to come. We have heard of continuing to expect to meet market forecasts of about £34mish - which is not far off 100% growth in revenues YoY and an improvement in our gross margins to 41%.

I think there is an expectation gap in terms of investing IMHO as a generic issue and the structural problems with the UK economy, stock markets and budget has a lot to do with the uncertainty. If investors want dividend income/profitability, then they should invest in large caps with a long dividend history and not bother with tiddlers like CYAN which are in the scaling up/growth phase where capital and abundant patience is required. On the other hand, market cap is often detached from profitability....like the SALT story....

I wonder if anyone has checked how long it took for the likes of Amazon or Uber to become profitable ?

[indiestu] 08/11/2024 11:03

Margins are negative, they made a loss.

[beeezzz] 08/11/2024 10:48

Does anyone know if headcount has been increased significantly, with costs rising by 11% maybe due to setting up ME operation.

Until they start covering their costs funding will be needed, margins are paper thin by the looks.

[estienne] 08/11/2024 10:34

The market clearly doesn't like the results and there is nothing in the results to stop it dropping back to the 7p level.

[pillow] 08/11/2024 10:30

Quite a buying opportunity, all systems go imo. Expecting a plethora of new order over coming months.

[indiestu] 08/11/2024 10:15

'at least some folks are buying'? The price is down 7.5% and it's only 10 am. There are only sellers I'm afraid.

[derek ten bag] 08/11/2024 09:57

Wish I'd a pound for every time disappointing results were attributed to the 'Indian elections'. They seem to have them every six months! Underwhelmed is my feelings at these numbers, although as a fan of 'gross profit', I am pleased to see that figure increased. As Multi has said though, the figures from last year of the difference between interim revenues and the finals is significant and has been for some years now, so fingers crossed on that one. I am hoping the predictions for an operating profit are still on course. Partial sale of the Indian operation would realise some much needed capital for the development work and general confidence levels. But when on earth are we going to get a further order from MEA in Thailand. Given our connections out there I would have expected something before now. Anyway, at least some folks are buying.