Crystal Amber Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 31/1/2020 15:53

An even greater cycnic would point out Mr Buffett & Mr Munger's performance vs an S&P tracker over the past half dozen years ;)

CRS has a price, but what.. I'd be very concerned about some of the holdings, DLAR & NTG in particular. Interestingly, I'd be much less concerned if they were buying the self-same stocks now. But when you buy into eg NTG, DLAR far higher, attempt some corporate changes, and then they tank, where on earth do you go next? NTG in particular have stuck two fingers up at them.

[hindsight] 31/1/2020 15:41

The 2% plus 20% fees kept me out of these fortunately. Some wise words from Mr Buffet on the subject


A flood of money went from institutional investors to the 2-and-20 crowd. For those innocent of this arrangement, let me explain: It’s a lopsided system whereby 2% of your principal is paid each year to the manager even if he accomplishes nothing or, for that matter, loses you a bundle and, additionally, 20% of your profit is paid to him if he succeeds, even if his success is due simply to a rising tide. For example, a manager who achieves a gross return of 10% in a year will keep 3.6 percentage points two points off the top plus 20% of the residual 8 points“ leaving only 6.4 percentage points for his investors. On a $3 billion fund, this 6.4% net performance will deliver the manager a cool $108 million. He will receive this bonanza even though an index fund might have returned 15% to investors in the same period and charged them only a token fee.

[spectoacc] 31/1/2020 14:43

Amazingly, nearly at the under-market Invesco dump price (117.5p).

CRS has a value, but I'm struggling to discern it, beyond the round number £1/share guess.

An eclectic mix of losers, punts, and old economy dying co's.

Saying that, I thought HUR's update this week was very good. As did the market, for all of one day. Now back around recent lows.

EQLS staying down.

ALM slipping again, tho I rate this one.

DLAR doing nothing - perhaps a good thing!

NTG cr*p, and now with deal execution risk.

Last reported NAV 195p, HL currently estimating 179p, which is certainly closer to being right. Buy price 120p, but for what? c.3% ongoing charge and they've destroyed value at an alarming rate - NAV back to 2016 levels.

Perhaps the activist shareholder will attract an activist..

[spectoacc] 28/1/2020 14:56

I like it when CRS detail their thoughts on each holding, in the Monthly NAV RNS. Can't fault them for communication - just for stock-picking skills! Sadly, the latter is the only reason to invest.

Reminding myself of holdings:

HUR (sh*te, and carbon)
EQLS - can't seem to stop falling
ALM - love it, my biggest holding, so may be biased
DLAR - no one bidding for it, could be fine if it survives, but bust a possibility
NTG - poor performer, poor co, wrong sector again
GI Dynamics - know nothing about it
STVG - doing OK
Board Intelligence - know nothing about it
KMR - another I hold, cheap
Sutton Harbour - not exactly shooting the lights out.

And that's it. That's what you're buying with CRS, tho at least at a fair discount. 31st Dec NAV 179p, undoubtedly lower now. Only really the Top 6 of relevance, making up respectively 36.1p, 35p, 23.1p, 23.1p, 20.5p per share as of 31st Dec.

3% ongoing charge looking a little high - if some is performance fee, it'll be heading lower.

Can't Recommend A Purchase, which is a pity with the discount they're on.

[hugepants] 28/1/2020 12:46

yes and EQLS down another 12% today.

[spectoacc] 28/1/2020 10:17

Worse, did you see EQLS yesterday and today?

DLAR, NTG stable at least, and the ALM tank was divi-related, but still - where are the winners? There are none.

117.5p Invesco dumped at I believe - if not for CRS continually buying its shares, we'd be below there IMO.

[hugepants] 28/1/2020 10:11

I expect the NAV is taking a further hit; Hurricane at only 23p now.

[p1nkfish] 24/1/2020 11:53

Dlar CFO gone after 18 months. Wonder if Crystal had anything to do with it.

[edwardt] 09/1/2020 13:22

love the fact activists are investing in an activist fund - wonder what their modus operandi is? Live by the sword.....

[spectoacc] 25/12/2019 20:41

Clearly see more value in DLAR.................. ;)

[contrarian joe] 24/12/2019 17:56

According to below,they have sold most of cnks,i can't understand why you would sell one of your better value plays,"smacks of desperation", or as he completely lost the plot.

[spectoacc] 24/12/2019 10:24

Fair point - I've been told it's cash but can't rule out that changing, they've clearly got the leeway.

[flyfisher] 24/12/2019 10:16

They havn't said that. The method of return is yet to be confirmed.

''Allied Minds intends to return proceeds to shareholders via a special dividend, share buyback or other method, and will evaluate market conditions and other factors, and consult with shareholders on the preferred method of capital return. ''

[spectoacc] 24/12/2019 10:04

ALM are paying out c.12p/share in cash, tho the main uncertainty is the date. Tho I like the Invesco idea :)

[flyfisher] 24/12/2019 10:03

Possibly, but it depends upon how ALM distribute, they could distribute by a discounted tender at a price that only invesco would accept.

Perhaps CRS should approach invesco with an offer of an in specie transfer of a couple of holdings, for their stake in CRS.

[spectoacc] 24/12/2019 09:50

They know there's a fair bit coming back on ALM sometime in the new year mind.

[flyfisher] 24/12/2019 09:35

They have insufficient cash to sort out the big picture, and are confined to window dressing.

[spectoacc] 23/12/2019 07:36

They did buy back some more, but at just over 125p and only 25k, no mention of the many at 117.5p. Missed another trick.

[gary38] 21/12/2019 16:15

A lot of long term investors see investing in shares that CRS have in their portfolio as high risk, because of their trading style of selling into every rise which stops the share from reaching its full value,with only the hope of a buyout.

[gary38] 21/12/2019 16:06

Totally agree.

[spectoacc] 19/12/2019 20:34

117.5p! Ouch. Wonder if the buyback took a few. On the plus side - they got the XD ;)

That seems a fair price for whoever bought - DLAR had yet another dive today, & still looks binary.

[flyfisher] 19/12/2019 17:44

Some large trades today - invesco selling?

[spectoacc] 19/12/2019 09:28

XD today. Still seen no reason to buy. Would much rather no buyback & shares find their own level.

[quepassa] 18/12/2019 07:36

DLAR does what it does.

It is NO COINCIDENCE in my opinion that they have chosen "an insider" (a highly trusted former Director) to be the new Chairman and an outsider to be CEO who is billed as a turnaround specialist.

Turnarounds can take many shapes and forms. Not always in my view to the benefit of ordinary shareholders.

And DLAR is a company which seemingly doesn't warm to outside activism and investor interference, especially given its very special role in the UK. Even more so, since leaving the EU is now 100% confirmed.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP