Crystal Amber Share Discussion Threads

[flyfisher] 14/11/2019 15:17

DS2, Thanks for the links, which surprise me as CRS actually divested about 6% of LEAF in the run up to redemption, as can be seen in LEAF holding RNS. https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/leaf-clean-energy-LEAF/share-news/Leaf-Clean-Energy-Company-Holdings-in-Company/81028259 Perhaps their opinion changed between sept and october. Leaf is currently a conundrum as they have guided a final return and distributed over 99% of it, without producing an explanation of two residual investments with a book value of circa £1m, given that only 114k shares remain in issue, it is unsurprising that nomura took 30% immediately on requote xdist. I tried to add but am locked out as a PI as their is no KID. With a market cap of 114k and yet holding several million for tax, provisions and a staggering 1.3m wind up estimate, i wonder if someone could close it down at a lesser cost.

[dangersimpson2] 14/11/2019 14:16

Thanks, that is good background - just seems to me that CRS were a bit surprised at the 122p final valuation at LEAF - they were stating that they thought the final valuation was higher than 150p and were bidding in the market at 140p in September. Probably not down to LEAF management then and just miscalculation by CRS on administration & bonus costs. https://twitter.com/CrystalAmberRB1/status/1174966051966078978 https://twitter.com/CrystalAmberRB1/status/1174993626394480641

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 13:59

@flyfisher - been waiting more than long enough already! Don't know what's stopping them going further. Bear in mind it was back in April when they suggested they take over running it down, with a bonus of 10% of anything over 80p. We're now in November, tho in early September CRS said: "The Fund believes that the scale of share price discount has not been addressed by the board of Allied Minds and therefore intends to take appropriate action. " Again - now November, tho I accept they've only recently gone over the 10% threshold. Also hadn't realised how rarely CRS go down the EGM route - twice in 10 years apparently. But good luck getting the boneheads at ALM to listen (I'm very long ALM, fortunately not at £7). (As an aside - despite everything having been passed, no word yet on the ALM distribution).

[flyfisher] 14/11/2019 13:52

CRS installed the wind down manager Mark Lerdal at LEAF, along with the incentive scheme, so they would hardly complain at the fees for a successful outcome. I would guess that they will attract some support from recent buyers, in their attempts to bring decent management and an appropriate fee structure to ALM. Whilst it is a different beast, CRS are trying to do the same at ALM as they did at LEAF. Invesco supported the wind down motion at LEAF, maybe they will do so at ALM. I don't expect we will wait too long before an EGM.

[cwa1] 14/11/2019 13:46

Thanks ds2, a considered reply, much appreciated. As a reasonably sized holder of HUR myself that was certainly one of the more interesting holdings to me. I also quite like NTG, though not a holder at the moment. However, I was a tad worried about the DLAR holding amongst others. Anyway, perhaps there is enough built in to the price with the discount to NAV now/at some point. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

[dangersimpson2] 14/11/2019 13:07

Thanks. Re: ALM - they are picking up stock but it is still not a large % of the fund - I would hope they manage to take on the management here to remove their ridiculous bonuses. They destroyed almost all of the shareholder value in ALM over the last few years (although ALM was clearly massively overvalued by the market at £3+) and then they have one successful investment in the last year so they pay themselves a big chunk of the upside of that investment as a bonus without netting off any of the massive losses they endured. Imagine an equity fund paying bonuses based only on the successful investments rather than the overall total return of the fund - it would be crazy! Yeah, LEAF was a great return overall but a bit disappointing in the end - LEAF appear to be holding a fair amount of cash back to pay administrators and management bonuses - as galling as this is I don't think CRS will be able to do much about it - even if they can get the stock to go above 30% in the market, make a mandatory offer and sack the management then they will still have to pay the administrators their exorbitant fees and management bonuses are probably already contractually bound. They probably have to leave this one and accpet they did well out of it.

[flyfisher] 14/11/2019 12:49

DS2, Good analysis. I would add that CRS received their final distribution from LEAF earlier this week, which completed an excellent return of around 300%. Already in the price however.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 12:09

Fair analysis, but want it lower first! Wondered about buying CRS as a discounted way into ALM, but doesn't hold enough so bought ALM instead :)

[dangersimpson2] 14/11/2019 11:58

IMO this is weak today because GI Dynamics has sold off significantly on the ASX overnight - although I can't find any specific news for this. Could be a failed clinical trial or a more general regulation change in the US related to obesity treatments that hasn't made the major news channels yet. The bull case is that CRS is now on a discount to NAV of around 29% at current prices, or 19% if you are cautious and write down GID to zero, and historically it has traded between 15% and 5% discount. You obviously have to believe that the larger holdings like HUR, NTG, EQLS are not massively overvalued at current prices - if you think they are overvalued then this will never be investable - however, a 29% discount buys a lot of leeway if you don't like one or two investments that CRS holds. Most investors tend to act against their best interests - they buy into funds when they have had good recent performance narrowing discounts, and sell when funds have weak recent performance, increasing discounts. In reality, no fund manager goes from hero to villain and back to hero in one or two years and its just a mix of luck and skill, combined with market mean reversion, that causes these cycles. Those who can act counter-cyclically earn both the fund return and the narrowing discount, those who follow the herd pay the market twice.

[cwa1] 14/11/2019 11:29

Drifting off a bit now. Slightly surprising it took so long personally. Anyone think there's a bull case here? Would be(genuinely) interesting to hear it.

[ltinvestor] 07/11/2019 23:02

RB has put his own money into what is by all accounts a shell.He has a 29% stake and is looking to make “ real” money for himself.....The company is Ultimate Sports Group ( usg)

[p1nkfish] 07/11/2019 22:53

So much for activism. Hard to breathe life into dying horses.

[quepassa] 07/11/2019 14:43

Equals Group ( formerly FairFx). Another recent poor performer in the Crystal Amber stable. July 130p. Today 85p. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 10:10

Judging by the size of the vote against at ALM yesterday, suspect that will have been CRS. If so, they're largely on their own, and haven't done anything (publicly) despite their previous comments.

[quepassa] 05/11/2019 21:50

DLAR may tumble to 50p in my opinion. all imo. dyor. qp

[p1nkfish] 05/11/2019 21:36

They were right but wrong.

[spectoacc] 05/11/2019 20:48

Those DLAR comments in the October NAV really don't do CRS any credit. "..The Fund continues to believe that De La Rue enjoys both strong competitive positions in high return businesses and a range of attractive growth opportunities. The company's total order book grew by 20% over the last financial year and its security features revenue increased by 38%." "There is early evidence that the new Chief Executive will adopt a focused and sensible approach targeted at rebuilding the value of De La Rue's banknote business" "De La Rue also has obvious strategic value" Well, a t/o may yet come along, but doubt it'll be enough to bail out CRS's investment. Rule no.1 - don't lose money. Rule no.2 (you know it).

[quepassa] 30/10/2019 08:24

it likely will in my view...... all imo. dyor. qp

[cwa1] 30/10/2019 08:14

Slightly surprised the share price hasn't backed off at least a little bit so far, but that's markets for you.

[quepassa] 30/10/2019 08:08

de la rue down a gob-smacking c25% at open today. a big hit for crs. wow.. all imo. dyor. qp

[cwa1] 30/10/2019 08:06

Yes, the DLAR announcement looks a bit of a sickener, that's not going to go down well(albeit going down for sure!)

[quepassa] 30/10/2019 07:44

heading down resolutely. graph looking bad. some of their big investments have had poor performance recently. pretty dire results from De La Rue today - one of their big holdings. it wouldn't surprise me personally if discount-to-nav widens further as underlying performance of fund does not inspire confidence in my view. all imo. dyor. qp

[kinwah] 02/10/2019 17:08

The end September NAV will by my calculation show another drop to about 214p thanks to a 20% fall in EQLS and a small drop in HUR. Currently CRS is trading at a 10% discount to NAV which I suppose is inexpensive if you like the underlying portfolio.

[p1nkfish] 13/9/2019 07:03

The write-up on DeLaRue in the results is interesting. Shines a light on the management. Worth a read.

[p1nkfish] 04/9/2019 22:00

Ineffectual.