Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 30/6/2023 19:52

Very probably. The one thing I am convinced of is that once interest rates settle into a more palatable range, housebuilders will be in demand. Now appears to be the time to accumulate imo. spud

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2023 14:31

spud, appreciate the reply, thanks.

I'm wondering if the listed UK brick makers might provide a very attractive
entry point over the next 6-12 months, FORT may be best placed, IBST the market
leader. Very high operational gearing in their models it should be said, so
forecasts can move very quickly in either direction.

[spud] 30/6/2023 13:46

EI - Buying for my ISA which is predominantly FT250 and I need a builder to balance. Now seems the best time to drip buy into this beaten down sector and seeing as CN is terrific value, it all fits together nicely.

spud

[salver2] 29/6/2023 23:36

The discount to book value is extraordinary- trading at about 45 percent less than book value - this share is worth a pound more to close it down!

[essentialinvestor] 29/6/2023 17:40

Why CRST over the other HB's?.

[spud] 29/6/2023 17:28

Took some more circa 185p. spud

[porsche1945] 09/6/2023 10:33

Looking at 2008 charts which is a good guide where U.K. housing market is heading I’m amazed this is still over a quid. Terminal.

[sikhthetech] 08/6/2023 14:15

Demand falling, as predicted.
Help to Buy ended.
Cost of living crisis.

"fears of another major adjustment in house prices" from CRST CEO.

Stamp Duty started to be wound down from June 2021 to Sept 2021.

Thousands upon thousands rushed to buy their homes before SD hol ended.
Those who took out 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages during that rush will start to see significant increases in their mortgage premiums from now.

That's on top of tax rises, energy price rises, food price rises etc.


From crst rns:

"The housing market is undoubtedly experiencing softer demand than the previous year. As we emerged from the restrictive impacts of the pandemic, home movers were searching for more space and were encouraged by the temporary cut in stamp duty. However, by the end of 2022 the sector was facing the start of a succession of interest rate rises to combat inflation, with peak rates forecast to reach their highest level in over 20 years. This was accompanied by the end of the Help to Buy scheme and a general deterioration in economic confidence driven by a cost-of-living crisis and fears of another major adjustment in house prices."

[sikhthetech] 08/6/2023 13:22

The sector newsflow has been as expected. Not good.

The market is expecting interest rates to stay high for longer, which is what the company .

Hundreds of thousands of homeowners have their 2-5yr fixed deals, taken out when interest rates were low, due for renewal. They will be paying significantly higher interest.

That's on top of high energy prices, food prices etc.

The next BoE meeting soon.


sikhthetech - 17 Jan 2023 - 14:11:42 - 2742 of 2771
Help to Buy ended at end of Oct.

The scheme gave FTBs upto 20%(40% in London) 5 yr interest free loan.

The scheme ending has yet to impact HBs. It's still early to see it's impact.

Tax rises, energy price rises, mortgage interest rises all impact affordability. Tax and energy price rises from April onwards.


sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price

[cowie19] 08/6/2023 13:03

Small top up in mid 220s

[marktime1231] 08/6/2023 12:55

At least they won't be moaning about skill shortages and lack of imported labour for a while, sharply depressed construction activity.

Yes the extreme crash in house prices forecast by some like Citi to be up to -18% over 2022-24, has so far been limited to -1% to -4% depending on whether you believe Nationwide, Halifax, RICS, Land Registry, ONS etc etc figures. So far. I think the central forecast is for a -5% to -8% trough, so things will get a bit worse before flattening out ... until 2028 some gloomier forecasts say!

So the problem is not house prices per se, which as Truscott says have been sustained by crimping supply, it is mortgage affordability and removal of support measures. Further .25-.5% rate rises this year will not help.

Tough love from Gove not helping, he is (rightly?) sick of big builders stockpiling land and throttling supply while there is a crisis trying to accommodate a swelling population. And undershooting their affordable housing obligations.

The glimmer of hope is that higher rents will restore the economic balance in favour home ownership. And no bad surprises around cladding either that I could see.

[essentialinvestor] 08/6/2023 12:35

They started life where I live, market is slowing around my way but
predictions of a house price crash look well wide of the mark.

Large fall in ROCE.

[marktime1231] 08/6/2023 12:31

Ouch. How frustrating, trading down as expected and the theory goes that all the bad news is priced in, but a gloomy outlook and wham! Tiresome moaning at the government to solve all the problems.

[salver2] 08/6/2023 09:38

On a trading basis ok value but on an asset value far too cheap -expect somebody to be casting an eye on the land bank

[robertball] 08/6/2023 09:37

Are you listening in? What do you reckon to Peter?

[boystown] 08/6/2023 09:29

Whatever; still far too cheap IMHO and worth around £4. Just wish I'd bought more around tne lows in October

[robertball] 08/6/2023 09:19

Presentation on now. Hardly inspiring

[spud] 08/6/2023 08:48

Half year report about as good as it could be in the current economic climate imo with the outlook being the clue to future direction of travel.OutlookWe have successfully navigated a difficult first half and continue to lay the foundations for future growth. Our decision to remain active in the land market was the right one. We now have a land pipeline to deliver our growth ambitions over the medium term, including our expansion into new geographies. We expect the second half trading environment to be more stable and conducive to moving home. Employment levels remain good, inflation should start to recede and economic growth forecasts continue to be revised upwards. However, if interest rates continue to rise, and remain elevated for a sustained period of time, this will undoubtedly start to impact demand and confidence again.A strong and vibrant housing market is in everyone's interests. The Group continues to participate in active dialogue with Government to highlight the challenges in both the planning environment as well as affordability for first time buyers and remains hopeful that political solutions can be deployed to address both in the near term.Despite the lower first half contribution compared to the prior year, and assuming that trading conditions remain stable in the second half, we expect FY23 adjusted profit before tax to be line with published consensus of GBP73.7m.spud

[essentialinvestor] 07/6/2023 20:06

Watch for any increase in cladding provisions,
nice longer term position if they don't bite.

[porsche boxster] 07/6/2023 13:29

Interims tomorrow

[cowie19] 06/6/2023 17:24

Welcome to the club spud.

[spud] 06/6/2023 16:29

Taken an initial tranche (10% of intended holding) for income. Will add on any weakness.

spud

[marktime1231] 12/5/2023 13:25

This is a huge upswing in broker outlook for CRST.

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg turned more positive on UK homebuilders, not least because the worst-case scenarios for house price deflation had been averted.

They also noted the relative improvement over recent months in sales rates, which supported pricing, even as modest build cost deflation was set to occur in 2024.

In particular, they upgraded their recommendations for shares of Crest Nicholson and Redrow, because their asset-backed valuations screened best within the group.

Affordability had also improved, estimating that mortgage payments had fallen to approximately 40% of a typical new homebuyers' earnings.

A "material" fall over time in average land prices was also anticipated, as were new government support measures for the new-build housing market before the end of the year.

The analysts marked up their target price for shares of Crest Nicholson from 220.0p to 310.0p and for Redrow from 466.0p to 643.0p.

[marktime1231] 26/4/2023 21:54

More to do with Persimmon and a couple of builders merchants reporting the outlook is not so bad, and CRST seen by some as good value. But keep speculating about a bid at every turn, one day you might be right.

This could leg up again, just imagine the response if CRST itself posted some positive trading news! Or has been able to contain the cost of cladding remediation.

Progress very welcome.

[value hound] 26/4/2023 20:33

Yes, better that it's quiet and a few of us enjoying the rise no doubt - having bought at or around the lows on a balance sheet basis (ditto BWY).