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[master rsi] 30/9/2020 10:47

Covid buying boom helps UK house prices hit fresh highs
30 Sep, 2020 10:27 am - Annual house price growth surged in September to the highest rate in four years, as the UK property market continued to boom post lockdown.

According to the closely-followed Nationwide House Price Index, UK house prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Although weaker than August’s 2.0% rise, it was the third consecutive month of growth and helped bolster annual house price growth from 3.7% in August to 5.0%, the highest rate since September 2016.

The update echoes data published by the Bank of England on Tuesday, which showed mortgage approvals rising to a near 13-year high in August.

Most regions saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth in the third quarter, compared with the second quarter. The south west was the strongest performing region, with annual house price growth rising to 5.5% from 2.3%. In London, prices were ahead 4.4% and are now 57% above peak 2007 levels; UK prices as a whole are 21% higher than 2007.

Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said: “Housing market activity has recovered strongly in recent months.

“The rebound reflects a number of factors. Pent-up demand is coming through, with decisions take to move before lockdown now progressing. The stamp duty holiday is adding to momentum, by bring purchases forward. Behavioural shifts may also be boosting activity as people reassess their housing needs and preferences as a result of lockdown.”

Nationwide’s research found that of those considering a move, 35% were looking to move to a different area while nearly 30% wanted better access to a garden or outdoor space.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Nationwide data show that house prices still have plenty of upward momentum. Demand currently is being supported by people who were unable to move earlier this year, as well as people seeking a lifestyle change due to Covid-19, rushing to complete purchases.”

But he warned: “The jump in mortgage rates and the outlook for further declines in employment suggest that the recent pick-up in house prices is likely be reversed. We continue to expect the official measure of prices to peak in October, and then to reverse all of its gains since March over the following 12 months.”

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, also sounded a note of caution: “[We] suspect the current pick-up in activity and firming of prices will prove unsustainable in the short-term, with the upside for the housing market being limited by challenging fundamentals for consumers.

“Many people have already lost their jobs, while others are concerned about possible redundancy once the furlough scheme ends. Separately, many incomes have been affected. Consumer confidence is currently still low compared to long-term norms.”

The EY Item Club believes house prices could be around 5% lower than they are now by mid-2021.

Marc von Grundherr, director of estate agents Benham and Reeves, called the annual growth rate “remarkable”, adding: “The market is showing no signs of letting up and has continued along the rapid upward trajectory seen since lockdown restrictions were eased.

“We’re already seeing considerable backlogs in sale completions at the legal stage due to the unprecedented levels of market activity. We expect this activity will remain extremely strong, at least until the stamp duty reprieve ends, at which point normality may return.”

In July, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced an immediate increase in the stamp duty threshold, to £500,000, until 31 March 2021.

[master rsi] 28/9/2020 22:39

Another good day on a UP market,and finishing at best of the day

195.10p +15.70 +8.8%

[master rsi] 25/9/2020 00:00

Yes bouncing back from a DOUBLE BOTTOM

[heliweli] 24/9/2020 17:45

Double bottom anyone.

[master rsi] 24/9/2020 14:08

UK housebuilders too cheap to ignore, says Jefferies
UK housebuilders are too cheap to ignore, Jefferies said in a research note on Thursday.

"With construction looking un-impacted by the latest Covid measures and the strength in the housing market providing increasing comfort on the sustainability of demand, we see the UK housebuilders as oversold," the bank said.

"News flow on Covid, Brexit, stamp duty and help-to-buy changes will likely create share price volatility near term. Nonetheless, we see current share price weakness as presenting a great entry point for our key picks: Persimmon, Berkeley, Barratt."

Jefferies noted that to date, housebuilders have said that local lockdowns such as the one in Leicester have not impacted construction build-out on site. As a result, the bank reckons that similar will be true of Tuesday’s step-up in Covid measures and would even be the case in a scenario of a more aggressive lockdown.

"Reflecting this, the more important impact of the lockdown for the sector will likely be the influence on customer demand," it said. However, it said that with agreed sales up 40% year-on-year, mortgage demand ahead of levels lenders can process, and house price inflation 3-5%, recent housing data, provide increasing comfort on its forecasts.

"Near term share prices may remain volatile reflecting macro news flow, with an air pocket in company news flow until the November trading updates which should be able to provide colour on demand for housing for April and beyond (i.e. after the expiry of the stamp duty holiday and Help to Buy changes).

"Nonetheless, with valuations reflecting house price declines of up to 14%, we believe the profitability and return on equity profile of the sector remains significantly under-estimated."

At 1230 BST, Persimmon shares were up 3.2% at 2,401p, Berkeley shares were 1.3% higher 4,154p and Barratt was 3.6% higher at 454.10p.

[master rsi] 24/9/2020 11:08

yes they are going places by now and CRST the best in % terms

CRST 187.10 +13.40 +7.71%
BDEV 455.50 +17.00 +3.88%
TW. 103.25 +2.50 +2.33%

[master rsi] 24/9/2020 08:48

Despite the FTSE being around 50 points lower, the house builders are on the UP, they must realised the marked down was overdone.

[master rsi] 23/9/2020 21:55

2nd day of directors buying

Date of the transaction 23 -09-2020
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST)
Director name: Ferguson,Iain ( Catherine Ferguson )
Amount purchased: 25,000 @ 169.19p
Value: £42,297.43
------

Date of the transaction 23 -09-2020
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST)
Director name: David Marchant (Sharon Marchant )
Amount purchased: 5,892 @ £1.6865
Value: £9,937

[sikhthetech] 23/9/2020 15:48

Porsche

"TW IS cheap."

All HBs are experiencing the same challenges.
TW isn't cheap, it could be better value compared to Crst because of the debt situation but depends on how the stockmarket, economic and HB challenges play out in Q4.

Other factors include Crst isn't named in the CMA Leasehold scandal investigation, whereas TW is.

[essentialinvestor] 23/9/2020 15:37

It's a play on whetner you think this management team can turn the business around.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 23/9/2020 15:29

Your right, it's cheap.

[porsche1945] 23/9/2020 14:40

...not with the horrible debt it has. Better companies out there, TW IS cheap.

[salver2] 22/9/2020 17:35

Director buying at crest,vistry and Redrow today - the house builders are cheap at the moment with crest trading at half its assets - if they closed it down tomorrow they should get 3 pounds a share

[dbadvn] 22/9/2020 16:16

Topped up again. Now avg of 1.85 or so

[hugepants] 22/9/2020 11:50

director buys

[rasl5] 22/9/2020 09:58

i top up at 162 , anyone else buying these ?

[master rsi] 10/9/2020 23:09

From Market Report

"On home shores, investors were mulling over the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which showed house prices rose at the fastest pace for four years in August as buyers sought out properties with gardens or near green space.

A net balance of 44% of estate agents reported rising prices in RICS' monthly survey, up from 13% in July and a turnaround from May when prices were falling.

Only London failed to show growth with prices more or less unchanged in the past two months.

Buyer interest, new instructions and agreed sales all rose sharply as households acted to take account of Chancellor Rishi Sunak's stamp duty holiday, RICS said."

[rhatton] 07/9/2020 14:37

Thanks for that link

[master rsi] 07/9/2020 13:36

Deutsche Bank lifts Crest Nicholson to ‘buy’

Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of housebuilder Crest Nicholson on Monday to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and lifted the price target to 250p from 202p as it said strong action has been taken to address the cost base and the stock is attractively valued.

Analyst Jon Bell said: "Crest has misfired more often than my 14 year old BMW but its current management team - still relatively new to their seats - has a steely (and welcome) determination about it.

"And as I sat in the gallery of the Chartered Accountants' Hall on a cold January morning listening to the company's FY results presentation, it was there for all to see. CEO Truscott and CFO Cooper had allowed no grass to grow under their feet.

"Quick to identify the company's swollen cost base, remedial action swiftly followed: next year's administrative expenses should be almost a third lower than 2019A levels; and two-thirds of £30m per annum procurement savings had been embedded by the time of the interims."

Bell said the benefits remain latent, obscured by the market's focus on the pandemic, but should bear fruit in the medium term.

He said the release of pent-up demand and the benefits of the Stamp Duty holiday have improved the near-term pricing outlook for the company. In the case of the latter, this is particularly so in the company's core South East footprint, it said, raising the possibility that it could report results towards the top end of its indicative range.

"For a company with a chequered history of meeting market expectations, simply reporting in line should go a long way towards restoring faith."

[rhatton] 07/9/2020 12:56

Deutsche bank upgrade to 250

[lucicavi] 07/9/2020 12:24

Should be good for 300p

[rhatton] 07/9/2020 08:23

This related to the leasehold trap and the other builders?

[onjohn] 02/9/2020 13:58

Could run to 300