Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 01/11/2019 07:40

Monty, I would question this strong return to growth thesis.
That makes a big assumption that wider macro is supportive.

[montyhedge] 01/11/2019 07:39

Profit warnings are like buses come along in threes.

[minerve 2] 31/10/2019 14:46

Happy to hold. Good NAV support under the price.

[mister md] 31/10/2019 13:40

"It could be the market is just taking this as standard new-CEO kitchen-sinking, and the dividend yield is great and the p/e still pretty good compared to most shares I think."

That's what I think. Happy to hold.

[1gw] 31/10/2019 08:46

And given the bounce I've sold the rest, so completely out of Crest for now. Given the scale (as I read it) of the profit warning and the fact that they are guiding FY20 to be below FY19 I am surprised at the relatively small fall in shareprice.

It could be the market is just taking this as standard new-CEO kitchen-sinking, and the dividend yield is great and the p/e still pretty good compared to most shares I think. But I'm going to wait and see for a bit.

[1gw] 31/10/2019 08:14

Sold about 1/2 my remaining ones, waiting for the dust to settle.

[montyhedge] 31/10/2019 08:13

Glad I sold.

[1gw] 31/10/2019 07:57

New management making its presence felt with that profit warning. Glad I reduced and may reduce further this morning depending on initial reaction.

[1gw] 28/10/2019 08:18

I've sold some more - the ones I bought around £4 in June 2018. Around 14% return in divi plus gain since then, so decided to take it ahead of this week's election uncertainty given the easing back of the price from the recent high.

Crest now out of my top 3 holdings, leaving me room to buy more if it should fall back further.

[1gw] 22/10/2019 14:24

And sold the rest of the ones bought with TEF proceeds. Looks like a golden cross to me, but also well overbought from the rsi, so decided to derisk and take the profit on the TEF portion.

Still a top 3 holding.

[1gw] 18/10/2019 12:39

Golden cross proximity notwithstanding, I've taken some off the table there ahead of tomorrow's parliamentary session. Still a big overweight in my portfolio and a top 3 holding, but I've sold a good chunk of the ones bought with Telford Homes proceeds.

[sikhthetech] 15/10/2019 21:34

Brexit deal resolution may only provide a temporary boost to the markets..

Crest and other housebuilders have huge problems, which I think will hit over the next year...

Bank warns of 'more frequent' rate increases than expected



Help2Buy:

The government is providing loans which are repayable with interest.

When house prices fall and homeowners can't afford to pay the additional H2B loan, who will end up with the bad Help2Buy loans bank?... the huge £20bln worth...The government and ultimately the taxpayer...
another financial scandal looming..

[1gw] 15/10/2019 19:50

Perhaps the stars are aligning. Brexit deal or second referendum looking possible (at least tonight) together with the Woodford overhang gone or significantly reduced. If the shorts decide to get out (3.8% Henderson, 1.2% Millenium), then that could add fuel, unless they are already buying back on the other side of the Woodford sale.

Of course it might all look different on the Brexit front by tomorrow.

[salver2] 15/10/2019 18:15

Woodford forced to sell his position!

[1gw] 12/10/2019 14:41

...or, whisper it quietly, a choice at a second referendum between an actual Brexit deal and staying in the EU.

[1gw] 11/10/2019 13:09

Makes you wonder how high these might go if we got an actual brexit deal rather than just the faint possibility of one...

[montyhedge] 23/9/2019 12:27

410p next level.

[time 2 retire] 20/9/2019 16:32

Nice little run today, pulled back all of yesterdays x divi already..

[sikhthetech] 19/9/2019 14:33

further to my previous posts on H2B...


SIMON LAMBERT: Help to Buy has boosted builders' profits and got them addicted to a subsidy - but will the government end up losing money too?

"The report said that Help to Buy may have lifted housebuilding by an estimated 14 per cent, but it didn’t make homes more affordable, or address other housing problems.

Meg Hillier, the committee chairwoman, said Help to Buy had ‘boosted the bottom line of house builders’ and will have tied up £29billion in cash by 2023."

"New build homes are sold as a premium product, but once someone moves in they lose the shine afforded from the promise of being the first to live there.

The committee put the new-build price premium at up to 20 per cent, while the ONS’s house price statistics show the average new build home costs £282,367 and the average second hand one £226,263.

In a market where house price rises are strong, losing the new-build premium when you sell up doesn’t matter so much, as property inflation helps you regain lost ground.

In a subdued property market, such as Britain’s current one that many forecast to persist, those selling their new-build within a few years may have to accept less than they paid for it.

This led Hillier to add: ‘The scheme exposes both the government and consumers to significant financial risks were house prices or interest rates to change. Better consumer protection needs to be built into similar schemes in the future.’

The committee said, if Help to Buy is to continue then its failings should be seriously considered and remedied.

The government also needs a plan to wean developers off their addiction to Help to Buy, unless we want to continue subsidising new home sales and big executive pay packets forever."

[montyhedge] 12/9/2019 08:08

Ex div next week, 11.20p nice.

[montyhedge] 10/9/2019 13:16

We are getting paid 9% to wait for a bid, not a bad situation to be in lol.

[montyhedge] 10/9/2019 08:20

I hope Crest not taken over, where else's can I get a solid 9% yield.

[montyhedge] 10/9/2019 08:10

With Crests massive land bank in South East of England, sitting duck for takeover. 500p a share can have mind.

[montyhedge] 09/9/2019 08:12

Ex div 19th Sept, 11.20p.

[sikhthetech] 08/9/2019 18:28

"Nice to know crest no scandal".

Crest themselves admitted to few leasehold sales, so there are/were some. That's different from NO scandal.

"very few leasehold houses have been sold. We continually review the terms of ground rents for the sale of all leasehold properties and we do not believe that they constitute a material exposure for the Group."