Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[flip101] 03/6/2010 15:39

Thank you very much longsight.

[ppowerscourt] 02/6/2010 14:37

Hi All,

When listing in Singapore, will it be 1 for 1? TIA.

[longsight] 02/6/2010 07:33

Flip - no sarcasm intended - apologies if poorly expressed. I appreciate your post.

[flip101] 01/6/2010 18:17

Can't detect the sarcasm or not over the internet I'm afraid.

[longsight] 01/6/2010 18:12

Flip - thanks for your thoughts.

[flip101] 01/6/2010 17:59

I was contemplating this earlier. I think initially yes, 1) we know CREO have marketed the stock to Singapore players who will look to buy in after listing, 2) There is a very aggresive timetable from the EGM approval to listing (ie some may not have their CDP accounts set up in time and Singapore investors will have no chance to buy in before the move).

On the other hand, I am guessing many are playing the listing re-rating and have only short-medium investment horizons. They'll look to sell into strength in reasonable size. I suppose the uncertainty here is how many will be doing this.

I think one driver will be when CREO publish a quarterly NAV of what I suspect will be ~4.00 SGD. I could easily see us trading up to 2.50 SGD (625p) reasonably quickly. Again this depends on the size of selling into any rise.

Only 10 or so trading days left until suspension. Treasury China Trust is now listed on Bloomberg also although with no details at all.

[longsight] 01/6/2010 09:38

Just bought another 10,000 at average price £4.24.

I found it a little easier to pick up stock today but my broker still had to work the order, picking it up in 3 lots.

Do other posters think this illiquidity might be a positive factor in the share price performance in Singapore?

[longsight] 30/5/2010 09:53

Flip101 - thank you for the info.

[flip101] 29/5/2010 08:35

Nice move I think LS.

According to their advisors in Singapore, these kind of real estate companies trade at or around IFRS NAV. I personally don't expect it to achieve this level however expect a 10-15% discount. Still, IFRS NAV as of the last accounts was 867p however I expect this to be closer to £9.50 or £10 following the significant currency moves.

My guess is they will publish an updated quarterly NAV soon after listing.

It's also worth bearing in mind the 0.05 SGD dividend gives a yield of 6% at the current price.

I personally expect a reasonable amount of buying demand after the move and a fairly quick move upwards.

[longsight] 28/5/2010 13:45

mikeja, I did finally buy. I should have bought yesterday. Silly boy that I am! My broker found it exceptionally difficult to pick up stock today. With both tranches I had to pay above the quoted price. In the end I got 10,000 at an average price of £4.16.

Do you know what the typical discount to NAV of PRC Real Estate cos is in Singapore at present? Do you have any target that you think CREO shd hit in Singapore over the next 2 months & beyond?

Regards LS

[mikeja] 28/5/2010 06:25

hac,have a word with Sarah Moriarty at the co.

[hac29600] 27/5/2010 16:37

Can anybody tell me what will happen to shareholder with certificates as I do.

There doesn't seem a mention anywhere of how you will be able to trade after they are only listed in Singapore. Is it a question of finding a broker who can hold stock electronically and can trade in Singapore ?

Thanks

[longsight] 26/5/2010 12:21

mikeja - Thanks.

[mikeja] 26/5/2010 12:08

Have spoken to co and they are certainly pressing on atm.Risk of another WCC seems unlikely.

[longsight] 25/5/2010 22:53

Thinking of buying some CREO.

Having read the last RNS on the Scheme Arrangement, do posters think there is any risk of the relisting in Singapore being postponed due to unstable market conditions? My uneducated guess, judging from the rigid timetable set out in the RNS, is that it wd be extremely unlikely but obviously WCC did postpone their relisting - though that did not involve the same detailed Scheme procedure as here.

My hunch is that it wd take major market collapse to stop the Scheme now since details have been posted & court hearings dates fixed.

Appreciate any views. Thanks.

[flip101] 25/5/2010 20:33

Mike, I think the price adjustment will take time. Your scenario would be correct if you believed the market was semi-strong form efficient however we know this is simply not the case.

From listing I expect a reasonably decent gain however I would guess UK investors will look to exit into rises along the way which will dampen the climb. I expect to see a re-adjustment to £7-£8 however expect this to take time given the shareholder flows.

I expect the stock split will reduce resistance to the upside (ie if we list at 1.60SGD (c400p), then 2SGD (500p) or even 2.25SGD (560p) does not look crazy. Every single textbook on market efficiency would tell you there should be no difference but in reality it is all very sentiment driven.

The market has simply not priced in any effect of a depreciating £. For example, if we listed 3 months ago at this price we would have listed at a 10% higher price.

This stock is very pooly followed in the UK but this should change in Singapore. It's certainly not risk-free given the possibility of a macro-economic shock however I'd say baring an economic meltdown 2, this should be 50-75% higher in 3-6 months.

[mikeelkin] 25/5/2010 20:16

Interestingly this fell with the market today. Given the delisting from AIM and a hiatus of a few days before it starts trading in Singapore I would have thought that the price it reaches in Singapore will not be influenced in any significant way by the price it ceases trading at on June 15 on AIM.

Thus it is very likely that it will start trading at a price that will be benchmarked by other listed peers, as there is no other measure that is comparable - this is of course as we all know far higher than the current aim price. It is 99% probable that the move to Singapore will happen and - here I am less certain, but say over 90% probable that it will move substantially higher within a few weeks of trading on Singapore as it attains the level set by its peers. The chance of it actually trading at a lower price is presumably less than 1% (or should that be practically zero)

I have a relatively small position here and the reason I have run through the above logic trying to quantify probabilities is that on the basis of them I should be increasing my position significantly over the next three weeks as the chance of making a large amount of money in a short period of time is greater than 90% and the chance of losing any is less than 1%. In fact on those figures I should be taking all the cash I can find, remortgaging the house and investing in CREO.

However the above seems to good to be true and, as they say, if it seems to good to be true, it generally is. Or is this the exception that proves the rule?

Nevertheless the logic seems sound - would anyone like to comment on my estimation of probabilities which are really educated guesswork, or on anything else I have said for that matter (particularly the bit about remortgaging the house!). The logic we are all familiar with. Does anyone know what has happened to the price of CREOs peers over the last few days in the volatility. Actually if anyone could tell me who they are that would be even more helpful.

Cheers

Mike Elkin

[flip101] 25/5/2010 20:11

mikeja - I'm now of the view that we'll see little inward flow here pre-listing and expect to see bits and pieces of stock come out the woodwork.

We do however know the listing has and will be marketed strong upon listing. Just the case of being patient and we only actually have a few more weeks of trading on the AIM.

[mikeja] 25/5/2010 10:08

£ RMB 9.745

[birdman101] 24/5/2010 14:43

Mijeka - agreed and should push the price up a fair bit post listing. At this current price we will list at 1.62 SGD with an IFRS NAV on a pro forma basis of about 4.00 SGD. CREO are also going to start publishing a quartely NAV, so should see one relatively soon after listing which will reflect the significant RMB appreciation vs. GBP since the 2009 accounts.

[mikeja] 24/5/2010 12:52

mikee,agree with your take on price action.Turnover is minimal atm.
Apparently they are doing a bit of pr work on Asian institutions so there should be a very good tick up on new listing.

[newswseller] 24/5/2010 10:24

I think a lot of people were invested here and in WCC, maybe a little too over leveraged and now are selling CREO at a profit to make up for the big drop in WCC?

[mikeelkin] 24/5/2010 09:08

I must admit to being somewhat bemused by the reaction to the publishing of the timetable. I had expected a run up in the share price and was initially non plussed by the complete lack of reaction. I would imagine that the move to Singapore is now over 99% certain (nothing is ever completely certain) and a very likely rerating yet this morning the price has actually moved down!

Having thought about it I wonder if the reason as this is a delisting and a share that has not got a large following the people who are going to move their holding to Singapore have already bought all they intend to, and virtually everybody who has decided not to has now sold. If you have not got an account sorted that holds singapore listed shares then it probaby is now too late to do so? Or even if it is not then if you have not done so already then you are not likely to now.

In this logic is correct then the share price is likely to be fairly static up to the move and hopefully will suitably rerate after the move.

Anybody like to comment on my reasoning and also does anybody have any ideas on what the range of likely prices they are anticipating once the move takes place. Is a gradual rerating expected or quite a sudden sharp move. I would ahve thought the fact that we are delisting from AIM makes the latter more likely.