Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[longsight] 27/6/2010 10:53

I think an interesting point that no one has raised on here - or indeed in the listing document - is the specific appeal of Shanghai as a commercial property investment. By this I'm thinking about the probable emergence of Shanghai as a world class financial centre to rival New York & London. I'm aware that PRC Gov wants this to happen but there is also a fundamental factor at play here namely the inevitable exponential growth of the Chinese financial services sector & in particular the insurance & pensions industry. Studies show that when GDP exceeds US$3 - 4k then insurance takes off as a sector. PRC now has 300m people at / above this level. Over the next few years, another 300m will be at this level. I've also heard knowledgeable fund managers that think the pensions industry has huge growth ahead of it in PRC from a very low base. Shanghai is the obvious city where these new financial institutions will be based. We have already seen Standard Charter & HSBS basing their businesses in the Far East. There must be massive scope for Shanghai as the most international of PRC's cities & the one with the hisory as a commercial centre. Yet Shanghai's office rentals are apparantly just 25% of those in HK.

So I see great potential growth in the Shanghai office market rental & cap values. On the retail property market, I have already made the case for huge growth potential i.e. wage inflation, RMB appreciation & rebalancing of the economy towards more internal consumption. Retail expenditure is already growing at 18% yoy.

TCT is not only a chance to buy real estate at a whacking discount to NAV, it is also a play on the growth of financial services industry & retailing in Shanghai.

TCT - if you are a long term holder - is a chance to own prime office / retail property in Shanghai with a guaranteed initial yield of 6% & where the cost of the NAV is just over 40% of the independently valued NAV. NAV shd rise to close on SG$4.90 by 2012, conservatively, in view of the refurbishments, new devopments & therefore greatly increased rental income & discounting the projected growth rates in real estate values over that period.

A brilliant long term hold.

Shame the share still doesn't register on the ADVFN monitor. When it does, I'd really appreciate if one of the more computer literate investors here started a new BB linked to the TCT share price.

[flip101] 25/6/2010 18:30

mike - I have the same info. JPM to publish after the 10 days, a few retail brokers to start coverage.

JPM however were meant to have marketed this before the move and clearly had no success. I just hope a well placed note will increase interest.

[longsight] 25/6/2010 16:59

My shares have been available since Wednesday.

I think that this will start to happen but it just might take another week or two. Sarah Moriarty of Treasury Holdings said as much to me - she thought that buying wd start after a couple of weeks & apparantly Treasury are busy doing presentations over the next 2 weeks. So I guess a little patience & it shd turn out ok. The yield at these prices makes this stock a lot more appealing than money in the bank & I wd be amazed if this doesn't go up by more than 50% over the next 6 months & that wd still be at a big discount on its NAV in comparison with its peer group in Singapore & HK.

[hac29600] 25/6/2010 15:43

I am told by my broker that my shares are now available to trade in Singapore.
Maybe I should sell them before others have the chance ?

[mikeelkin] 25/6/2010 14:38

My account at TDW has still not received the TCT stock. I spoke to them about it this morning and they (TDW) said that the process takes some time. They could give me no idea when it would be sorted but clearly it was not going to be within the next few days. The thought occurred that this maybe a factor in the lack of trades we are seeing; to try and confirm this I spoke to Rob Naylor at Matrix Communications and also someone on their sales desk. They were as surprised / puzzled / mystified as everybody else at the complete lack of volume and implied that the most likely explanation is that JP Morgan etc did not do a very good job when they went round visiting people in Singapore before the transfer. They thought that although stock such as mine not being available for trading yet was not helping, it was not the most significant factor in the lack of volume. They claimed if institutions want to buy then stock is available; they are just not buying.

They confirmed that JP Morgan are not allowed to publish anything for 10 days after the listing (I presume that is business days) but they are hoping / assuming that trading will pick up when they do, although that will clearly not be for another week. The guy on the sales desk has a substantial amount of stock himself and was obviously very frustrated (as we all are) at the lack of activity since Monday.

I do not know if anybody has been counting but as far as I can see there have been two trades since Monday totalling about 55 000 dollars.

One concern / scenario I have is that once PI's stock is available then some who are disappointed with the lack of expected upward movement will sell and drive the price down. Thus it will actually drop before it eventually rises to match peers' valuation.

[flip101] 25/6/2010 07:44

I'm just very surprised, not so much at the share price performance but the completely non-existant volume. Let's hope these broker notes generate some interest. We'll hopefully get some quarterly NAVs.

[longsight] 25/6/2010 07:28

Flip - I agree. However, I can not believe that over the next 6 - 9 months this won't trade at ratings similar to its peers.

It strikes me that CREO really shd have relisted in HK & not Singapore or else they have failed sufficiently to market the business to investors in Singapore. Given the professionalism of the listing document & the cost of the relisting you really think they wd have ensured that it took off at launch.

[flip101] 25/6/2010 07:02

Well, this is very disappointing. I am unsure why management have been unable to convince any investors to buy here.

[longsight] 23/6/2010 14:05

LBO - thank you for the link. Interesting that TCT think rental income shd double in the next 2 years. Given that they have guaranteed the divi will be 5c for the first 6 months, & I believe have stated that it will be 10c for the 12 months, it looks very doable that divis will rise by 2012 towards 12c by my approx calculations [& based on the Trust Deed requirement that divi shd be min 80% of distributable profits]. My guess is that TCT will try to ensure that the divi rises modestly each year. Given the lo share price at present, the divi yield looks very good indeed. I am trying to shift my portfolio around a bit so that I can keep most of my shares for the long term.

[flip101] 23/6/2010 13:30

This is freely traded and listed on the main exchange. They therefore have to release information to the market through an official channel. The listing documents also state a commitment to ensure all European holders are kept informed.

Don't be scared by the Trust structure. There are hundreds of REITs listed around the world.

[longsight] 23/6/2010 12:20

Eddie - that can't be correct since they have already released a number of Singapore Stock Exchange announcements since the listing on Monday.

[eddie1980] 23/6/2010 11:58

I think I read that as a business trust (or whatever they have set themselves up as) they will no longer put out announcements to the stockmarket, only communicate with shareholders, so I am not sure how the market will get NAV updates or how the value of the business will be promoted externally.

[mikeelkin] 22/6/2010 20:20

My account is not showing any tradeable shares either although I did notice that it appeared you could open and close bets with IG Index today. Not sure what that implies.

[flip101] 22/6/2010 17:57

Mijeka - I have heard this also. There is a window between when JPM can publish sell-side research having advised CREO on the listing from the investment banking side. I expect a gradual increase in interest over the next few months and especially when an updated NAV comes out.

[longsight] 22/6/2010 13:39

newswseller - thank you.

Anyone else wish to tell us their shares's status? Mine are still untradeable.

[newswseller] 22/6/2010 12:52

no shares showing with my TDW account either

[longsight] 22/6/2010 12:06

vondutch - thanks for the response. It wd be great if other posters on here also told us if their shares are dealable yet since this might throw a bit of light on why there have been no trades so far.

[vondutch] 22/6/2010 11:57

My nominee account has not received new shares yet either. I expect it will take a bit of time.

[longsight] 22/6/2010 08:55

mikeja - thanks for info, sounds promising.

Is your stock avaliable to trade in Singapore yet? Mine still isn't.

[mikeja] 22/6/2010 08:51

Spoken to co,JPM expected to publish a note soon and maybe a couple of retail brokers.

[ppowerscourt] 22/6/2010 08:37

My Nominee Acct with TDW has not received from source the new Singapore shares yet (from telephone enquiry just now).

[longsight] 22/6/2010 08:27

hac - agreed but by "physical" I don't mean certificated but rather showing on the Agent's system as being available to trade - mine still aren't. How many actually cd trade TCT now? Be interested to hear from others what the status of their holdings are. If there is no tradeable stock yet then this will explain the total absence of any trades yet.

[hac29600] 22/6/2010 08:21

i think SGX is one of the markets where you cannot deal if you hold physical certificates. Thats what I was told anyway.

[longsight] 22/6/2010 08:07

Flip - my shares are not physical yet [my broker uses Pershings]. Perhaps everyone is in the same boat & therefore no one can deal yet.

Flip & mikeja - are your shares physical yet in Singapore?