Cozart Share Discussion Threads

[kneath] 20/4/2006 08:49

Hi Adeyberry... Didn't make a profit I broke even, but i avoided a big loss of nearly £1k by ignoring my stop-losses when it dipped to 26p. I had to sell to keep my attitude right! Bit gutted tho' as I believe this is a good stock. If i can get it a little cheaper I'll buy back in.

Cheers anyway. Kneath

[adeyberry] 19/4/2006 14:45

Kneath...

Well done on your profit, there is nothing wrong with banking it, well done!

[kneath] 19/4/2006 14:42

Azalea & cfb2
Thanks both for the advice which was much appreciated. Unforunately I sold at 36p prior to reading your advice & against my gut instincts! I've only been trading for about 3 months and after lots of 'wins' this was my first scare as I was nearly 30% down - yeah yeah stop-losses and all that I know! I think I've got to get to grips with the time-scale / urgency thing. Anyway I still like the look of the company so i'll monitor it with a 'maybe' for buying back in for the long term. Thanks again for the good advice though.

Kneath

[leopold555] 19/4/2006 10:40

Sold 80% of mine this morning for another nice profit. Retained a few though

Leo

[adeyberry] 19/4/2006 10:14

Thanks azalea....

Well the share price is there now!!

Looking good, and best of luck!

[azalea] 18/4/2006 17:40

Ade
The share price has yet to reach the placing @ 35.5p last June, when directors bought shed loads. A couple of orders from police forces in Europe should set the share price alight.

[adeyberry] 18/4/2006 16:49

Splendid close, very happy, and feeling very confident about the future of this company!

[adeyberry] 18/4/2006 12:34

Bought a chunk last Thursday and have to say I rather like the look of these! A nice bonus today to see the directors feel the same way...

[azalea] 18/4/2006 07:47

Director Stephen Noar buys 175,000 shares 11-13/4/06. Need one say more!

[cfb2] 16/4/2006 01:52

Kneath: As you have already bought Cozart shares, and I assume you haven't sold them all yet, you need to ask yourself whether the reasons you bought them still hold true. It's your money and your decision.

A lot of people on these BBs expect shares to double in a month. It's unlikely to happen for Cozart - patience is required. I refer to the chart in the header when I say that the recent rise in February from 27p to 32p was a price correction caused by an excellent independant analyst report by Clear Capital and the subsequent rise and fall appears to be a momentum play led by Evolution.

I've said before that under 30p for this share is a bargain, following the confirmation of a successful rollout to a further 127 police drug testing centers I would raise that bar slightly.

The way I would describe Cozart at the moment is the acquisitions "Spinreact" and "Medib", held together by Cozart, form the stable financial base and the Cozart Rapiscan technology provide the immediate opportunity for expansion. All being well they should launch their new scanner technology (DDS) within the next couple of months. By reducing the testing time to 5 minutes, the new scanner opens the door for Cozart to offer roadside testing. Winning any of the tenders in France, Italy or Australia should, in my opinion, move the price comfortably above your 34p. Don't expect this to happen overnight - governments move slower than a snail on valium.

What's the risk factor? The major one is that a competitor overtakes them on their testing technology (keep an eye on Quantum Diagnostics) or starts a price war with similar technology. There are lots of companies doing drug testing, but very few doing saliva testing (others use blood, sweat, urine and hair) and Cozart is currently heading the pack. If the joint development with Philips yields results in the next couple of years then I think it unlikely that Cozart will be overtaken. If it were to happen then Cozart still has the existing, but boring, Spinreact business to fall back on.

The other risk is losing the exclusive Home office Drugs Intervention Program (DIP) contract. This is up for renegotiation in 2008.

Let me look to the future. I've already mentioned the DDS and the partnership with Philips and the next generation DDS. I've already mentioned the possibility of winning roadside tenders. Expect further rollout of the Home Office program although as the volume increases the HO may expect reductions in profit margins when they renegotiate in 2008.

Currently Cozart have distributors for Sweden, Netherlands, Spain, UK and recently France. Spinreact cover more than just Spain, but expect distribution deals throughout Europe being announced. I would guess that mandatory drug testing will appear for professions such as pilots, air traffic controllers, doctors..i.e. any profession that intoxication puts someone at direct risk of death. In the US, workplace drug testing in larger companies has become common practice. Expect that to work its way across the pond.

Of course you'll note that Cozart is very Europe, and with the acquisition of Spinreact, South American centric. At some point either expect an acquisition of a US company or Cozart to be acquired by one itself.

So, once again, it's your money and your decision. However, I suggest if you intend to continue reading this thread you filter out "Biswell" and "QALBABBAS".

CFB

[azalea] 15/4/2006 19:21

Kneath
IF I were you, I would very much stay put with the view that this one is a cinch. Look at the facts - Philips took a 4.8% stake with an option to double within six months of signing its recent tie up. Directors have bought bucket loads (one buying £1.78m worth). The opening of 127 new police drug testing suites where anyone and everyone whose is merely arrested (not necessarily charged) will be tested using a CZT kit. Trust your own judgement, the potential for CZT products is enormous and has yet to scratch the surface in Europe through its recent tie up with a French pharma distributor.

[kneath] 12/4/2006 08:45

Mornin' all. I'm out to dry on this 'un having bought at 35p. However, my waters are telling me that this is a good stock. Should I be devining elsewhere? Any body got any support for me hanging in there?

Kneath

[leopold555] 12/4/2006 08:34

added

Leo

[etarip] 10/4/2006 15:30

CFB: thanks

[cfb2] 10/4/2006 15:02

etarip: Here is an online version of that article:

Researchers at Edinburgh University have developed a hand-held computer test in which drivers are asked to track a moving ball on a screen with a stylus, and press a button every time a road sign flashes up.

Machines to test saliva have also been developed, but are yet to be approved by the Home Office. The Glasgow study recommended that they be authorised.

I wonder who the company that developed the saliva test could be...? :)



CFB

[biswell] 10/4/2006 14:37

Post it then , folks on here can't afford that

I understand 100,000 clear plastic 6 inch rulers have been purchased from China

Together with 10,000 straight lines .... ' walking for the use of'

Roadside tests for drug drivers

Drug drivers face the same penalties as drink drivers
Devon and Cornwall Police are beginning a campaign targeting motorists who drive after taking drugs.
Recent statistics show the number of fatal crashes involving drug taking is on the increase.

The force has almost completed training all their traffic officers in detecting drug use.

A series of roadside coordination tests will be used. They will include raising a fingertip to the nose and walking in a straight line.

The dilation of eye pupils will also be measured.



B

[etarip] 10/4/2006 14:32

There is an article in today's Times on driving and police drug testing.

[cfb2] 10/4/2006 10:29

"Many drug-drivers 'go undetected'



At the moment there is only one company with sensible road side testing equipment, and that's Cozart.

CFB

[wiganer] 07/4/2006 14:35

Looking interesting. Sucker's rally or early stage of a genuine bounce. Not sure yet- will reserach over weekend. My only phrama play to date has been AKT, on which I've made money on every trade (the only multile-trade share I can claim that!), but AKT seems a lot easier to read, due to higher liquidity.

On the other hand. CZT's illiquidity is exactly why it might go on a run...

[cfb2] 07/4/2006 01:16

Gombie: Sorry it's taken so long to get back to you. My comment was in passing rather than some facinating insight, but let me see if I can explain myself a little better...

If a MM were reducing their holding most people would quite naturally assume that they would be quicker to increase their bid price when there was a sudden increase in buying in the hope that the bid increase would entice people to sell shares back to them. The less shares the MM had the quicker you might expect them to raise the price; this doesn't seem to be the case. What appears to happen is the MM "borrows" shares to make the shortfull and either at some point trade shares with other MMs or waits/forces a price retracement to balance their books. The net effect is that their holding doesn't seem to make the slightest difference to how quickly the price rises.

CFB

[gombie] 04/4/2006 13:41

cfb2. Thank you.
Back in Dec when CZT dropped to around 23p I discovered, from a highly reliable source, that that was driven by EVO who had off loaded a large tranch on behalf of a client.

I'm not quite grasping one thing you said, although I know it often happens.I quote: 'Bear in mind that if there is a sudden rise in stock the MMs normally go short rather than automatically rising the price,--'
Please would you explain that a bit more, sorry.

Many thanks,
Gombie

[cfb2] 04/4/2006 01:22

Gombie: The other interesting thing going on is those very short spikes down. It happened twice today. The first was WINS, the second was EVO. The MM has tried to drop the price, presumably hoping that the other MMs would follow. When they don't they put the price back up again.

When EVO did it, it would have put them off the offer, which is why they were quick to restore the price (remember that for some reason they are trying to get rid of stock).

If EVO is reducing stock it may get interesting if some news results in strong buying. Bear in mind that if there is a sudden rise in stock the MMs normally go short rather than automatically rising the price, but long term they need to balance their books.

Sorry if this isn't helping much, but I thought I'd give a "brain dump" in the hope that someone more knowledgeable might be able to fill in some of the missing pieces.

CFB

[cfb2] 04/4/2006 00:34

Gombie: I'm not sure my answer is going to be much help. I was hoping that picking up on it might prompt some of the traders of advfn to make some suggestions.

First let me say that the MM is extremely unlikely to have any "inside information" on Cozart. This action won't be the result of some wink by someone "in the know". In other words the fact that nothing but positive news is coming from Cozart should reassure us.

It may be as simple as EVO have decided that they are holding too much stock. I noticed that they were mostly on the price throughout the rise and fall of the stock over the past month. They may have just decided to cut down on the risk. I've also noticed stock being transferred; this might have been EVO reducing their risk to other MMs.

You need to remember that MMs rarely have any knowledge of what a company actually does; they merely respond to the rest of the market and attempt to keep their books even.

Another thought is that they might be intending to delist from Cozart. However, over the past couple of months they should have done quite well so I'd have thought that unlikely.

Probably not worth reading too much into it, but it seems that EVO is controlling the price at the moment. I feel more comfortable with SETS and SETS/mm than SEAQ where the MMs are in complete control. Normally I'd try and avoid SEAQ, but I think the prospects of Cozart make it worthwhile.

CFB

[gombie] 03/4/2006 21:48

cfb2.Can you suggest any reason why?