Cove Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the monkster] 17/2/2012 21:42

think you'll find its "hear,hear"

[monts12] 17/2/2012 21:37

Here here!

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2012 20:18

eelanguilla- if you think that then you are expecting more than a 50% rise from here, so you would be a heavy buyer at these prices your funds permitting mate I would guess. FWIW, my expectations are a bit lower but I still may top up even further at these prices. Whatever happens, I hope we will all do very well.

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2012 19:27

guys- all good debate. We all want the most and best price for what we believe. Fingers crossed and good luck to all. Not long now I guess.

[rus4] 17/2/2012 15:56

Gentlemen My holding may not be significant ,I do not have to File Form 8.3, however I like to express my opinion.
We all seem to hold management in very high regard.
Management indicated that 30tcf was worth 200 per share
Management indicated that there are 40tcf in WBCFT
Management will do a good job and get us a good and fair price

[woodster71] 17/2/2012 15:18

Agree with Pnetol - Utrecht i certainly value your thoughts and everyone comes at this from a different starting point. I havent got time to check now, but wasnt it Collier that had some oil traces but they had to suspend for oprational reasons. Going back to Collier could be the key to the door for whoever takes out COV. APC have always said that the further south you go on the block the more chance its going to be liquid. With the carp around AIM these days in the O&G space we should count our lucky stars we have a management team with the expertise that it does. These guys are no mugs, we have believed in them sofar to maximise shareholder value, i am not going to start telling them what COV is worth and nor should anyone else IMO
Woodster

[pnetol] 17/2/2012 14:40

Utrecht , I totally agree with your sentiments and a bid of £1.87.5 would leave me smiling and my wife with the new bathroom that she has patiently waited for, anything higher is a bonus. U have put some good sensible posts on this thread, keep it up and good luck to all holders here

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2012 14:08

benny62- nothing to do with you what I do with my shares. Another 30p rise is massive if you have a large position. As I do.

[mattoil] 17/2/2012 14:07

There is still no proven commercial oil in the Rovuma region, the possibility is of course there, but it is hard to see that being priced in. Craven can not know if there is any oil, although he might have an opinion. Fact to the matter is, regardless of the selling price, if Anadarko finds big oil, it will look like Cove sold too cheaply. However, anyone buying into Area 1 will be doing so primarily if not exclusively for the gas play. I think it is a long shot to hope for a considerable bonus for the possibility of finding oil, especially since no one has encountered it yet. Aminex didnt find it, nor has any other wells in the area. The moment someone finds large quantities of oil the whole region might be getting a valuation boost. Most likely however, Cove will not be around to enjoy it.

Lets also not forgot that Cove will sell no matter what. Going solo is not an option as Cove does not have access to enough capital to see the development through, nor is it the strategy. There seems to be a considerable amount of interest, but that does not mean that they will bid sky high. Most likely the best offer wont be an all-cash offer, although it may value the company at more than £2.

[benny62] 17/2/2012 13:47

Utrecht I am pleased to say that you are not employed
by our company or would be .
Our aim and that of the Cove management is to maximise
the return to Shareholders including the management and
not settle for any less.

The upside in Mozambique is tremendous and we should not lose sight of that .
If the Management were to sell now and within One year Anadarko were to achieve
an Oil play they would have some egg on their face.
I cannot see Messrs. Blaha and Craven wanting that record on their File.
This company isn't going cheap...Why don't you go now there is so little further
upside ...I am and have been here to the END...

[fraserdean] 17/2/2012 12:48

OAO Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer, is looking into a site with "lots of capacity" in Mozambique, said Deputy Chairman Alexander Medvedev.

Gazprom's interest is "subject to political stability" in Mozambique, Medvedev said in an interview in New York today. The Russian company is also interested in an "asset swap" with a firm already working in the African nation, he said.

[alloa2003] 17/2/2012 12:42

Its all a case of risk/reward on all sides - how far do the company push for a good price and risk someone walking away? How low do the bidders go and risk COV taking itself off the market?

The fair ground is between the current share price and the maximum estimated asset value - its now down to a battle of wits and a very expensive game of poker.

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2012 12:38

funtimejohnny, the amount that anyone is going to be happy with depend on the price they bought them at and how many they have. Like I said v happy at 180p over the moon at 2 quid. The rest is dreamland as far as i'm concerned.

[cashandcard] 17/2/2012 12:37

mattoil,


Fair say, although COV have a share of a vast gas resource, smaller players in the region who are well placed, the balance of risk reward is tilting towards them. AEX, WRL and on a smaller note, AEY. Quite awhile before they get there, but COV was like them not too long ago.


Cash

[funtimejonny] 17/2/2012 12:19

I think mattoil makes a valid point. The spend going forward is massive, and cove don't have the financial clout to undertake the production phase. A sale somewhere north of 2 pounds a share would be a good result. I would be happy with about 2.20.

[utrecht_00] 17/2/2012 12:00

agree. Personally I'm happy with 180p.

[mattoil] 17/2/2012 11:31

£2.50 - £3 is unrealistic, just saying. The market does not think it is remotely likely to happen either. In an ideal scenario you'll get a bit more than £2, but not much more I think. Comparatively in the sector Cove is not that cheaply priced any more, although they are an interesting case. If you look to peers, they are still a good buy, but they wont be at £3. Cove's directors have been good at talking up the share value, and I don't think they will let it go cheaply, however, there are limits to what buyers can and are willing to pay. The expensive part is yet to come, meaning that any buyer has to have a considerable amount of resources going forward.

[exmooroil] 17/2/2012 09:32

A steady upward movement in closing bid price so far this month:

Feb
01 136.75
02 137
03 139.75
06 139.5
07 139.75
08 138.75
09 140
10 138.5
13 145.75
14 147
15 148.75
16 149.75
17 149
20 ?
21 ?
22 ?
23 ?
24 ?
27 ?
28 ?



There's no reason why this trend shouldn't continue towards month end as the due diligence phase ends and takeover negotiations begin in earnest; also Lagosta 3 appraisal should be close to a result by then.

[rus4] 17/2/2012 07:23

£2.50 to £3 would seem to be where the valuation should be at , and maybe we will get a pleasant surprise with new information !

[eelanguilla] 16/2/2012 23:21

agree more on your valuation ... its in the ball park

[plunger2] 16/2/2012 21:52

Excellent Karateboy!

Keep it up. There's gold in them there hills :)

[karateboy] 16/2/2012 21:51

And voting no to any offer less than £2.5 per share. My thorough research is very expensive and it indictes any thing less , COV is trying to sell my shares cheaply. I voted no to DGO take over few years ago as I felt crazy DGO directors selling my share cheap. Look what the share price is now cf with the offer price which was then. I don't know what some of the very old holders think?

[utrecht_00] 16/2/2012 21:41

karateboy, as well as a thorough researcher you are also humble as well.

Welcome to the party.