Costain Share Discussion Threads

[catabrit] 15/9/2023 09:35

Someone kick this clown out of the chat.

[blackhorse23] 14/9/2023 12:35

Switched to GATC

[hamhamham1] 14/9/2023 08:54

Nice Kier RNS today ;)

[bobaxe1] 13/9/2023 21:06

Good day today 60 has gone and about time

[catabrit] 13/9/2023 09:34

Yep. Peel hunt upgraded Costain to buy this morning too.

[pinemartin9] 12/9/2023 21:19

Agree. Time to be patient, wait for the big money....sector will come back into vogue and COST is well placed. There are very few more solid investment cases out there. Minimal downside at these prices. Stockopedia metrics are great. Quality 93, momentum 92, value 88. Stockrank 99. 10 day Ave volume 45% up versus 3 mo th average. Something building here.

[catabrit] 12/9/2023 19:35

Important day. Bid got as low as 57.40p but rebounded strongly. I’ll probably have egg on my face by I think we’ll break that 61p resistance level in the coming weeks.

[catabrit] 11/9/2023 16:52

We have a market cap of 165m ish. Assume EV of 100m if you net off 65m of cash to take into account payables. Management reckon they’ll do a minimum of 20m of sustainable FCF and so that gets you to a FCF yield of 20% even assuming half net cash, rather than full.

[muckshifter] 11/9/2023 15:42

Sorry Catabrit, but I would like an explanation of your *minimum* 22% calculation if you would.

[grahamburn] 11/9/2023 15:30

Well, in reality 18 seconds isn't that long is it? Or may be trying to sell a million shares in one hit put the other side off for long enough to miss them!!

[salpara111] 11/9/2023 15:22

Impressive!
I long since gave up looking at the buy/sell data on ADVFN as my previous experience was that it was pretty much guess work!
Interesting that they would execute my two smaller holdings but not my biggest one.

[grahamburn] 11/9/2023 15:14

Salpara111 - For your information

A quick look at advfn Trades Data shows the bid reached 59 between 12:44:40 and 12:44:58 and trade nos 67 to 74 were executed then and 5 trades were in the sell column.

Take a look........

[someuwin] 11/9/2023 15:09

New Liberum note out. Increased Target Price to 100p...

"The H1 23 results were strong and in line. We make five key points: 1) Due to strong cash generation, we expect £135m of net cash at FY 23 (with no gross debt), which is 83% of the company’s market capitalisation; 2) Margin milestones have been reiterated, with a target of 4.5% during 2025, which we believe should be achievable and would be market-leading; 3) Our analysis suggests 21p of FD EPS is achievable based on target margins; 4) Costain remains well positioned to benefit from two key themes: a strong infrastructure outlook in the UK and the Energy Trilemma. 5) The interim dividend declaration puts it back on the income register. A CY 24 P/E of 4.9x and sustainable estimated FCF yield of > 15% are simply too cheap, given £135m of net cash. BUY, TP from 80p to 100p."

[salpara111] 11/9/2023 15:00

Interesting!
I have three holdings in different accounts and set limit orders on the weekend to sell all three at a price of 59p
I have received notification in the last couple of hours that my two smaller holdings (under £15K) have been executed but I have not seen the bid get close to 59p today.....I'm not complaining but equally not clear what to do with my third and biggest holding which has not sold......yet!

[catabrit] 11/9/2023 14:35

There is good liquidity at the minute. I was offered a smidgen under 58p for 50,000 shares.

[catabrit] 08/9/2023 09:59

Whichever way you look at it - full 133m net cash or reduced amount of 73m assuming you deduct that 60m - the FCF yield on EV is still a *minimum* 22% off a 59p share price

[catabrit] 08/9/2023 09:46

The spread is not always bad. Usually during the middle part of the session it narrows.

[muckshifter] 08/9/2023 09:05

Agreed LateralThinker, that's what I'm hoping for also. Steady carefully controlled annual increases in profits without "accidents" would do for me, and should enable a different view and rating of Costain, particularly if they manage to increase the consultancy / design side of the business substantially. The concentration on this thread on the cash on the balance sheet is, imo, a bit misguided.

As I see it the current workload is heavily weighted in construction rather than consultancy, with the company attempting to rebalance that workload.

Of the current £120m+ cash on the balance sheet approx £60m, iirc, is debt to subbies who are paid a month behind Costain. If the actual construction workload growth slows, stops, or it actually declines, that cash benefit growth slows, remains the same, or drains cash. The growth of consultancy will, imo, involve Costain in paying an increasing amount out in salaries etc. with payment from their clients being a month behind I would assume ( but I don't know how consultancy work is reimbursed by clients for sure). So I don't measure the company by its cash.

[pinemartin9] 08/9/2023 07:50

Yes 60p is a major barrier. I've been patient with this one and feel the big gains are yet to be had.

[roguemale1] 08/9/2023 07:34

FD just takes the freebies I'm afraid.....

[thags] 07/9/2023 22:35

Looking at the chart it's really struggling to push through the 60p level and looks to be rolling over so I expect a bounce at 50p. I hold a larger long term position and a smaller trading position which I had a 60p sell order which didn't fill. This is something else which puts people off buying this poor liquidity and wide spreads

[chris magpie] 07/9/2023 17:55

Yes always good to see Non Execs buying shares not sure how many current FD holds though.
But happy share price has grown since half year results given they weren't particularly inspiring.

[catabrit] 06/9/2023 19:10

Statement from Kate on her LinkedIn.

Following on from the strong set of first half financial results that we announced last month, I have purchased more shares in Costain Group. 
 
This reflects the confidence I have in the strength and resilience of the business, the sectors we are in and the brilliant people we have at Costain who are focused on delivering our projects.
 
We have seen an increase in adjusted operating profit, supported by the robust performance and resilience across our divisions, as well as continued positive cash generation. That is also why we were able to resume dividend payments for the first time in four years.
 
All great news for the business, our people, and our investors.

[dickbush] 06/9/2023 14:45

Her husband, Caspar Rock, is Chief Investment Officer at Cazenove Capital Management. So, presumably, he didn't think it was a bad idea.

[catabrit] 06/9/2023 14:43

There we have it. 50,000 shares at 59p ish. Pretty insignificant vs her net worth, yearly salary as Chair and vs my holdings and likely some of yours too, but a 50k chunk nonetheless. It’s her second purchase in 9-months.