Coro Energy Share Discussion Threads

[buzzzzzzzz] 06/4/2022 08:25

What monetary value does it give for 1/Bcf???????

[pavey ark] 06/4/2022 08:23

35 scft = 1 scm

If you are doing anything with gas or gas prices then you must be prepared to move between any number of units.... imperial and metric.....plus dollars ,pounds, euro.....endless fun !!

[buzzzzzzzz] 06/4/2022 07:39

Pavey do the m,aths for me please.

What does 0.1/scm equate to for 1 Bcf?

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 18:38

Maybe because we're not producing 80kscmpd...and the cash to drill or work over needs to be found. We're also not generating any cash from Asia, so they're still only potential, and we still don't have a GSA for Duyung, so still difficult to value.

Agreed we have the potential, and I'd rather be invested now before the potential is realised!

[ride daice] 05/4/2022 18:22

I would agree. But it took me a while to get over the baggage.

[buzzzzzzzz] 05/4/2022 18:02

Pavey

I have very rarely seen such a disconnect between value and actual share price!!!

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 17:17

Buzzzzz, yes 80K would be great but even 50K lights my fire.

50k x 1 x 65% x365 gives c.£10m a year....bottom line.

If Sant'Alberto gets going then the current value will look silly and this was my reason for pointing out how little value need be given to the Asian gas to allow for the debt and indeed the entire field to be ignored and the Vietnam renewables.

Coro is very close to being very undervalued on Italian assets alone....God knows what it's worth with the rest !!??

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 16:41

You really have to show a mistake in my figure not merely say you don't believe them or you don't like them.

I pointed out at the time that I was using the European values and not SE Asian figures but the fact remains that 1000 scft is equal to 28 scm so you are saying that there is a difference of 28 times .....hmmm.
I see you are now hedging your bets and going up to  €1.5 even  €2

The most recent figures for LNG I can find is c $10/1000 scft but that was February and prices have been as high as $15 but you are valuing the gas in the ground at  1 euro / 1000 scft or is it 1.5 or even 2

I have never subscribed to this multi bang game and have always had my eye on Italy but if you are going to go down that road of using figures then it is best you use the correct ones.....or at least be clear where you estimates come from.

You obviously had a problem with 1.7 Bscm x 0.02 = € 34m ie debt more than covered if gas in the ground is valued at  €0.02/scm or a little over  €0.56/1000scft which was my original point

Your silly suggestion that I was valuing CORO at  €1.7B would suggest that you didn't understand my post.

[buzzzzzzzz] 05/4/2022 15:48

Talking to Mark Hood this morning who was in Manila, it does look as though 24k scm/d could be achieve relatively soon. Casa Tiberia is rather small fry but with Sant’ Alberto in play a total from the Italian portfolio of 80k scm/d or more could be achievable once the environmental clearance at Sant’ Alberto is completed.
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Pavey

Look at the above.

80kscm/d x1 Euro x 365=29,200,000

Obviously costs have to be deducted but bloody hell that's alot of revenue!

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 15:43

Over the last 12 months, Italian gas prices have risen by 700% and have now reached something like €1.55 per standard cubic metre of gas (scm). Investors have just learnt that Coro now expects to generate more than €5 million of free cash flow annually from its Italian portfolio once Sillaro is brought back into production, which is expected in March 2022.
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That is from the align note, but we would not get €1.55/scmg for gas in the ground. If oil is $100 and is valued at $5-10/bbl in the ground then using 5-10% it is possibly worth €0.075-€0.15 in the ground.

So your 1.7Bln X €0.075 = c.3.5p which would be great

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 15:35

Posts crossed so I deleted mine....I will look at you latest post now.

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 15:31

So by your reckoning, 1.7Bscm would be worth €1.7bln 🤔🤪

€1.7Bln/2bln shares in issue would mean c. 80pps 🤞🌠🍻

Sadly I think not.

I think it's more likely €1/mscfg so 495Bcf = €495mln * 80% RF =€400mln *15% =€60mln or say £50mln - £20mln - 20% = £24mln /2.12Bln = c. 1.13p

Hopefully it will be valued at closer to €1.50 to €2/mscfg.

It gets really interesting if we develop the asset and €1.50 becomes €3-4 and 495Bcf becomes 1 trillion and they find oil below the gas!!

That would double and double again, less costs and maybe dilution. 1.13*2*2 c.4.5pps without any value for Italy or Asia.

[ride daice] 05/4/2022 15:20

It reminds me of a true story of a former colleague who ordered a fish tank from Germany in the days when we weren't that familiar with metric units of measure. He swears that he ordered a ten footer but he got a bloody shock when it turned up.

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 15:14

You're getting your decimals mixed up

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 14:23

400 Bcft = 11.4 Bscm. (1 scm = 35 scft)

15% = 1.7 Bscm

1.7 Bscm x  €0.02 =  €34.2m

Certainly in the interview management used 1 Euro/scm and the research note 7/3/22 used 1 Euro/scm.

This is, of course, delivered gas prices not in the ground price.

[ride daice] 05/4/2022 14:02

I think we should be able to afford a special divi then.

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 13:33

I think you have dropped a few bllx here...

I then had a look at Duyung and if I take the reserves as an average figure of 400 bcft and the bond debt of c. €32m I work out that to clear this debt Coro need to sell the gas in the ground for €0.02.....hmmm!!....1/60th of the European price.
I'm no expert on these things but that seems unlikely !!

we have 15% of 495Bcf say 75Bcf which /1000 and x 0.02 = $1,500,00...not quite enough to clear the debt!
at 1 Euro/1000scf this equates to 75mln or c. £65mln less c. £20mln + interest + 20% of what's left...so £65mln - say £25mln = £40mln - 20% = £32mln = 3 bags'ish from here...

all rough and ready calcs, didn't look up exchange rates etc...dyor

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 12:17

I was looking at the interest payment etc but the figures get so silly for Duyong that a few million here or there are almost irrelevant.....almost !!

[nametrade] 05/4/2022 12:04

Pavey Ark,

You have bond debt of 32M Euros....you mean 23M Euros?

[pavey ark] 05/4/2022 11:07

Had the trusty calculator out this morning ....I do like me numbers!!

First thing: the Dutch TTF price seems to be steady at c. 1.2 €/scm (many conversion factors involved but I think I got there).....The Italian price is unlikely to be less.

The €5m free cash flow figure quoted by management was based on €1/scm and I am guessing c 22k scmd but a bit mixed up if it's for 9 months or 12.....anyway I'm going for free cash 60%-70% of revenue....lets go for 60%.

It is four weeks since Align spoke to the CEO and I doubt if things have stood still at Sant'Alberto

With the rather safe prediction of a substantial flow from SA the production could reach a rather conservative 35-40 scmd

Again taking the lower figures each time we get 35k x365 x1 x .6 = €7.662m....£6.3m

So the very realistic cash generated is over £6m for one year.

I then had a look at Duyung and if I take the reserves as an average figure of 400 bcft and the bond debt of c. €32m I work out that to clear this debt Coro need to sell the gas in the ground for  €0.02.....hmmm!!....1/60th of the European price.
I'm no expert on these things but that seems unlikely !!

With the debt cleared and if we take the renewables investment away from the market cap then this company could be trading on a PE of ONE ....or less.

All of this with the usual caveat that I have been wrong before (it was a Wednesday...I remember it well !!),

One final point is that if I were using the Italian assets as a cash cow I would seriously consider hedging production to lock in some profit....it could be a lesser profit but that's the chance you take....then again they are unlikely to ask me !!

[currypasty] 05/4/2022 09:46

online buy price, 0.4949, that is deliberately under the mid of 0.495 so would show as a sell... why are they doing that? want to disguise the actual buy/sell ratio?

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 09:14

it seems pretty obvious that every trade starting with a 0.49 is a buy. MMs not offering above 0.48 on the bid side afaiaa.

[buzzzzzzzz] 05/4/2022 07:22

The Donald

I thought I did and have now amended it...apologies for clogging up the system!!!