Corcel Share Discussion Threads

[richie666] 22/12/2023 11:01

Nah. Never to Kemche. Only the wonderful concept of karma to that abhorrent coward.

[smackeraim] 22/12/2023 10:42

Hopefully a great 2024 coming if everything goes to plan here. All the best for the holidays everyone, even to kemche

[dicko80] 22/12/2023 08:22

Limited online buy limits and full ask only for even small amounts

[dicko80] 22/12/2023 08:06

Online buy limit

Just 50k at 0.57p

Fill or kill orders above

[dicko80] 22/12/2023 07:08

Once T14 is completed and both wells T13 & 14 are flow tested , all the data , oil columns , net pay, porosity, flow data, will be used to calculate oil in place and recoverable , so once all is complete we will have a better idea

But as it stands although they've mentioned horizontal drilling there's been limited info , so we are buying in to £9m mkt cap where we are currently priced just on the tobias field at around £0.74 per bbl, as I mentioned in the ground value generally viewed at $3 perbbl , so 200% from here just to this level

Discovery $6 per bbl , so 400% to these levels

On confirmed oil flows $10 per bbl , 1000% from here

Then it's about getting into production

As we are onshore costs will be low, likely to be around $35/40 per bbl resulting in $40 / $45 payback per bbl

Horizontal drilling has been mentioned in RNS updates, and this is key to quickly ramping up production accessing more of the reservoir, info and potential productions are limited but 5k bopd netto corcel for year 1 and double this year 2 has been rumoured

5,000 x $40 x 365 = $73m net cash flow

10,000 x $40 x 365 = $146m net cash flow

Mktcap £9m

That's before we look at galinda in the same block as tobias or the salt leads in the same block or the exciting KON 16 where we have 300mmbbls net prospective resources to hunt or Lithium, REM

[tigin] 21/12/2023 20:04

Alot of facts from you ... but the bottom line is what is this share WORTH with all of these mathematics .... 1,2,3,4,5,6, p per share ...??

[dicko80] 21/12/2023 19:39

valuation

Sale of assets

WWG $2.8m

Mambare $4.1m

Mt weld $1m (partial)

Total $7.9m

c£6.4m

Crcl mkt cap £9m

Angola

REM

Lithium

For £2.6m ?

Add in funding of £10m @ .80p, 50% premium to current sp

Brazil onshore oil and gas assets underreview

Additional Angola onshore and offshore assets under review

Current Angola apraisal drilling

The first two drills are appraisal wells, of which Corcel has net interest of 11.7mmbbls contingent resources

As a current valuation per bbl we are valued at just £0.76 per bbl

Even less if taking out the sale of assets of £6.4m... but let's disregard the cashpile

£9 mkt cap / 11.7mmbbls = £0.76 per bbl

3 different value creation events on an oil discovery

a) in the ground value $3 per bbl

11.7mmbbls x $3 =

$35.1m mkt cap / £28m mkt cap

b) on discovery $6 per bbl

11.7mmbbls x $6 =

$70.2m mkt cap / £56m mktcap

c) on successful flowtest $10 per bbl

11.7mmbbl x $10 =

$117m mkt cap / £93m mkt cap

The current drills a proven oil field , the tobias oil field first well T13 confirmed 120m oil column

current estimate is 65mmbbls of recoverable oil remains ,the current recovery factor used is 31%,so suggest the oil in place is around 200mmbbls but the operator and corcel believe there may be more oilinplace by completing the wells with modern techniques

There has been 12wells drilled historically, the area of closure is mapped and the 4previous wells that failed were outside the closure

Info on the below link



Once T14 completed and as per July presentation, expectation is for horizontal drilling from the vertical wellbore.

Horizontal drilling will access more of the reservoir , we know the reservoir is upto 120m thick but the area of closure has been mapped to 3400 acres , so if Google is correct this is an area of 3709m x 3709m



Please review the following link ,item C , increase the length of payzone



This will ramp up production, multiple times that of vertical well produces

As per timeframes , first oil is a quick turnaround expected in the next 6 months

Once into production, we will be cash generating !

No more dilution to shareholders

from the current mkt cap £9m there is huge upside to the forecasted aggressive production numbers , the plan looks to quickly drain the reservoir by production from horizontal drilling...

Item B on the below link



Potentially could ramp production x5x6 times

Forecast for corcel to be producing net 000's bopd

Very cash generative

buying now and holding for a few years ..

multiples in value

Then any other success in Angola especially from KON16 where our share is 300mmbbls net ,although this is exploration there was 12m oil found in previous well, so not your wildcat licence area

Lots of upside from current £9m mkt cap

[z1co] 21/12/2023 14:46

MM's not giving a quote to buy at 0.61p

[z1co] 21/12/2023 14:39

900,000 bought at 0.609p well above the offer price.

[z1co] 21/12/2023 14:38

News could well have leaked hence the strong RISE of the shares yesterday and today.

[smackeraim] 21/12/2023 11:24

Was a guy on telegram. I can't take the glory lol

[smackeraim] 21/12/2023 10:57

A guy posted this on telegram last week. I guess this explains why there’s 15 bids on KON 15 the block directly under ours. You can see on map on page 8.

Even AET are trying to get it.

Look at the amount of bids on it



We might just have the best block around here.

——

Page 8 there is a lead that has been identified in our Block 11 and that stretches far into Block 15.

[z1co] 21/12/2023 10:29

MM's have absorbed the sells from traders and have now increased the bid to 0.53p.

The rise strongly indicates that the well will be a gusher :)

[smackeraim] 21/12/2023 07:50

Oh new thread. Decent.

[smackeraim] 21/12/2023 07:49

Colin must be close, and he might be gushing. Good luck all

[z1co] 20/12/2023 19:29

3 x 20 million block trades at prices of 0.445p , 0.445p and 0.45p from yesterday were also reported after the close today so if there was a overhang it's now definitely cleared.

It was NT to buy even 10,000 towards the close , i expect another BLUE day tomorrow

Also tomorrow will be the 40th day since the drilling started and by now they must be very close to bottom , so the operator and the crew will have a good idea how much hydrocarbons were detected whilst drilling this well.

[z1co] 20/12/2023 17:21

Of even more importance is that the price finished above 0.50p , with the drilling also close to target depth the share price rise today could well be the start of a STRONG upward move towards the 1p mark.

[z1co] 20/12/2023 17:03

3,000,000 buy @ 0.53p reported after the close taking the volume to 17m.

[kemche] 20/12/2023 16:40

Colin 2 is a gusher.

[z1co] 20/12/2023 16:18

MM's are giving a very generous price to buy your shares 0.5156p which is well above the current bid of 0.51p.

[z1co] 20/12/2023 16:03

Online buying limits reduced drastically to just 125,000 at full offer of 0.52p , it's NT above that.

In the morning 1,000,000 was available to buy.

[z1co] 20/12/2023 15:51

That 2m was a buy another delayed trade printed 1 hour late and showing as a sell.