Corcel Share Discussion Threads

[kemche] 25/11/2023 14:32

Under Sonangol the wells will not deplete sharply. They have instructed both Colins to behave themselves and only increase production sharply.

[dead duck resources] 25/11/2023 13:42

400 net to Corcel or 2,222 bopd total (never mind 5,555 best case) exceeds the field's initial production so I'm afraid that food for thought is unfit for public consumption.

If they test 80 bopd in 60 mins at full valve then do a dodgy extrapolation to a daily rate, maybe they can hit your 2k to use for the promote. But if you mean likely output for the year to CRCL, 30-40 bopd imo. It's a second go-around of these dribbly fields.


KON 11: the initial production was 1800 bopd but the field had a sharp decline rate.

KON 12: the Galinda field had 21MBO (OOIP) but less than 10% was recovered from the
Ga-2 & Ga-4 wells. After initial production of 2680 bopd the decline rate was sharp.

[z1co] 25/11/2023 13:20

With Sonangol being operator,the largest hydrocarbon producer in Angola they would NOT be drilling these wells for only a few 1000's bopd.

Probably 5,000 to 10,000 bopd is what they are expecting.

Like iv'e already posted we don't have to wait that long to find out.

These Colin wells will be all gussssssssssssshers.

[z1co] 25/11/2023 13:13

Working on your conservative estimates of just 400 bopd net each for TO-13 and TO-14 so 800 bopd net for these two wells

Price oil @ $76 that will generate a revenue of more than $1.8m per month or $22m/yr.

That amount of revenue would be very significant for this tiddler and will increase substantially as more wells are drilled by Sonangol.

Very exciting times for holders and for this little company.

[lexion] 25/11/2023 13:06

@Kemche I cannot believe you're seriously thinking net to Corcel could be 20k bopd from first well ??

[kemche] 25/11/2023 12:58

Your figures are on the low side by a minimum factor of 50 if I may say so.

[lexion] 25/11/2023 12:32

Yep horizontal drilling may well be the way forward - cost is about 50% more but bopd should be 2.5x more My stab in the dark is 400 bopd net to Corcel from first well Horizontal drilling in future could potentially increase well production to 1000 bopd in best case scenario Food for thought ?

[z1co] 25/11/2023 00:28

Angola: Petronas buys into Total’s Kwanza Basin acreage

Issue 492 - 03 Oct 2023 - By James Gavin | 1 minute read

Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) has been busy shedding assets elsewhere in Africa, but the Malaysian national oil company has expanded its footprint in Angola, via its Petronas Angola E&P subsidiary.

[kemche] 24/11/2023 21:57

wobble wobble

[mark10101] 24/11/2023 17:37

Wibble wibble

[dead duck resources] 24/11/2023 16:05

dribble dribble

[z1co] 24/11/2023 16:01

DDR

Your maths is improving.

Don't forget this is NOT the 90's and modern drilling and completion technology, including potentially horizontal drilling will produce excellent flow rates.

I expect these Colins to flow significantly higher than your predictions.

I'm sure once you have BOUGHT the shares you will try much harder.

[kemche] 24/11/2023 15:54

DDR, what part of 100,000 bopd do you not get? Sheesh!

[dead duck resources] 24/11/2023 15:46

Z1CO, I've redone the calculation as it was slightly too bearish. Of the 12 historic wells, 7 were producers, with 5 dusters (one of those converted to water injection).
A success rate of 58%. On that basis we can expect 1 of our 2 attempts to come good
and spreading the historic production over less wells means a higher bopd number !!

29 MBO historic production
Field discovered 1961, shut-in end of millennium. 35 years fine for the calculation

35 years x 365 days = 12,775 and will discount 10% for downtime = 11,500 days

(29,000,000 / 7 wells) / 11,500 days = 360 bopd per well

On reflection I was too bearish to say new wells may reach 1/4 of the original rate. DDR wants to get you the best number possible and HALF of that rate may be possible.
That's 180 bopd or a cool 32 bopd net to CRCL's 18% interest. It's still compelling.
Sadly due to the historic dusters I expect only 1 of the wells to be a producer, so
32 bopd is your lot, but will be higher initially before the decline curve kicks in.

[z1co] 24/11/2023 15:33

DDR

Corcel and the operator believe that revised interpretation of the existing structures along with the application of modern drilling and completion technology, including potentially horizontal drilling will lead to a higher Original Oil in Place ("OOIP) figure in the reactivated field being achieved.

Technology for drilling has significantly improved since the 90's.

These Colin wells gussssssh massively.

Bring on the flows

[z1co] 24/11/2023 14:29

You're mistaken this field is not in Austin Chalk Texas it's in Angola West Africa.

Who knows the Colins could easily gush past 10,000 bbls/d with modern drilling.Don't forget this is the first drilling since the 90's.

The good thing is we don't have to wait that long to find out.

As we debate Colin 2 is being drilled towards the target depth.

This will be a massive gussssssssssssssssssssher.

[dead duck resources] 24/11/2023 14:15

The peak production is great to pop into an RNS or bulletin board, but we know this field was producing for the best part of half a century. '35 years' was conservative. If I'd used 40 years the numbers per well would be less than 100 bopd, and I was not prepared to frighten investors like mark0101 who think the wells will go gangbusters.

We shouldn't be looking at historic flow rates anyway which was similar to a bathroom tap, as those virgin exploration wells will have accessed the easily accessed volume. Remaining producable volume may be more like a quarter of a bathroom tap. A dribble.

[dead duck resources] 24/11/2023 11:19

30 million barrels produced over 35 years is excellent, and I believe over 12 wells?
That's an average of 195 bopd per well, and there is expected to be 'some' oil left!

If we can average 100 bopd (18 bopd net for CRCLs 18% interest) at both wells that's 36 bopd net! At $20 a barrel operating margin that's EBITDA of £0.2m a year for CRCL
which will go some way to covering the 'beginning of the initial' plc admin expenses and the 'beginning of the initial' convertible loan interest.

[kemche] 24/11/2023 11:14

They will get exceptionaler if the ruddy MMs continue with their shenanigans.

But a chance for me to get in even cheaper!

[z1co] 24/11/2023 11:08

They will flow test Colin 2 first upon reaching target depth.

It will be a gusher but by what margin?

It could be any amount from 2500 bbls/d to 10,000 bbls/d or maybe even higher.

Even a 3000 bbls/d at 18% net will generate substantial amount of cash for this micro cap

With oil currently at around £80/barrel @ 3000 bbls/d will yield $1.3m per month from each Coiln well.

Now that will be transformational for this company.

The shares at 0.5p represent exceptional value.

[kemche] 24/11/2023 10:42

Classic treeshake to let Leni and Pharmacal in on the cheap.

Go Colin 2!

I continue to average down.

[z1co] 24/11/2023 10:33

The Kon-11, Kon-12 and Kon-16 blocks contain the previously producing Tobias and Galinda oilfields which hold about 85 million barrels of contingent resources and could be redeveloped, as well as exploration prospects that could host 1.4 billion barrels of oil.

The Tobias and Galinda fields were exploited by Petrofina in the 1960s-1980s and produced about 30 million barrels in total at rates up to 17,500 barrels per day.