Circle Property Share Discussion Threads

[addas99] 16/5/2006 09:34

More pain today. Don't mind market corrections as long as these are then corrected back to where we were in the first place!

Edit: when these corrections occur you realise your error of being fully invested, ie no spare cash..... a 14p drop (so far) in two days would be too tempting.

[nikesh2] 16/5/2006 08:50

that was some huge red day yesterday!!!

[wassapper] 15/5/2006 22:36

market - that's all. Sea of red if you had not noticed.

[daftvader3] 15/5/2006 17:58

that was a painfull hit today ... has something happened i don,t know about or just a fall with the market

[pinhead3] 14/5/2006 20:01

Nikesh
I am expecting an upgrade in potential reserves for Haib, based upon the report carried out by previous owners but which was not certified.

Copy this link into your browser for the information I'm refering to & compare to the current info on the CRC site & you'll see what I mean.

www.afri-can.com/files/Haib%20Final%2043-101.pdf

Off to Houston tomorrow for the week so won't be posting for a while.

[nikesh2] 14/5/2006 12:00

pinhead
do you think the haib report will be successful!
want to go super long but at the best price

[pinhead3] 12/5/2006 22:52

'Copper could sail up to USD 10,000: Malcolm Freeman

2006-05-12 16:26

According to Malcolm Freeman of Abrian Partners, the run up in copper and aluminium prices are fuelled by fund and investor money, which, he says, is coming into a very thin and illiquid market.

Further, traditional trade hedges, which have got short position to hedge their production, are just closing out their hedge positions.

He adds that the rally has not ended and copper could touch USD 10,000.

Excerpts from CNBC - TV18's exclusive interview with Malcolm Freeman:

Q: What is the key reason for the kind of run up that we have seen in copper and aluminium?

A: We can very easily put it down to two factors. The extremely aggressive run up in prices continues to be fuelled by fund and investor money, which is coming into a very thin and illiquid market.

On the other side traditional trade hedges, which have got short position to hedge their production are just closing out their hedge positions because they are costing too much.

Today Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile, Codelco is the world's biggest copper producer. Codelco has admitted that their hedging books are going to cost USD 190 million a share. So they have closed a lot of it down because they are making so much profit on the copper on the other side. That is why one saw extremely aggressive rise in prices yesterday and it is still holding up today.

Q: Where do you see this market headed from here?

A: I don't think we have seen the end of this rally. I think we would achieve somewhere around USD 8000 – 9000. USD 10,000 is a very realistic prospect in the short term for copper. I believe something USD 3600 – 3700 is a realistic prospect for aluminium.

Q: What is the supply demand picture for steel?

A: We are still seeing some good industrial demand. The general building sector demand is very good. So the price outlook for that must be extremely positive.'

[pinhead3] 11/5/2006 10:52

As long as the price doesn't fall below $1.25/lb I don't have a problem with a correction in the copper price.

I've made more on my Copper SB than I have CRC at the moment!

[nappers] 11/5/2006 09:01

copper going crazy now - only a matter of time b4 this gets revalued IMHO...

[pinhead3] 10/5/2006 22:28

Wassapper I agree.
With up to just over a maximum of 7 weeks until the full year results I think they will come as a surprise to a lot of people.

[pinhead3] 10/5/2006 19:22

'Copper Resources Corporation Holding(s) in Company
10th May 2006

GLS CAPITAL OWNS 2.18% OF CRC SHARES

COPPER RESOURCES CORPORATION "CRC"


CRC was advised on 9th May that GLS Capital had disposed of 1M shares on 5th
May. GLS now holds 1.2M shares, representing 2.18% of the issued share capital.'

The last holding notification GLS Capital held 1.166m shares, the fact that they've sold 1m shares & still have approximately the same number of shares indicates that they took approximately 1m shares in the last placing.
With LR Global taking 3.6m shares that leaves approx 3.4m from the last placing to be identified.

[wassapper] 10/5/2006 17:30

We are now verging on the oversold. I will start adding to my holding tomorrow. We have copper storming away, production of 4000T pa and news to come.

[pinhead3] 07/5/2006 21:38

E&P companies trade on higher valuatuions than those producing on the expectation that they will find more reserves & thus at some point the future will produce a lot more oil/gas than the current producers.

There is significantly higher risk to a company that is exploring than one that has identified & is producing from it's certified assets. With the producing company you basically know what you will get & can accurately value using CF, earnings or asset valuations.
With an explorer you don't know for certain what actual assets/reserves the company has, & only part of the potential assets are used in the valuation with the hope/expectation that significantly higher assets/reserves will follow. Hence the higher valuation attributed to an E&P based on the actual assets/reserves.

Some of CRC's assets are not yet certified & some are but very little is actually being produced. Yes the underlying value of the assets will increase with the rising copper price but there still is significant risk involved with getting the copper out of the ground & then to market,etc to realise that value.
The effect of the copper price rise will be minimal until CRC produces copper in significant quantities. eg a 50% rise in copper may only result in a direct 5-10% rise in share price

CRC will rise in value when more assets are certified (Haib, Hinob-an)because some of the risk will be reduced.
CRC will rise in value when Kinsenda starts producing (per the project schedule) because further risk will be eliminated & the cash flows will be a measurable reality. CRC will also rise at this point as larger more risk adverse buyers will buy in & the volume/demand increases.

Don't forget the Kinsenda project valuation was not only based upon a long term copper price of $1.25/lb but also over a period of time of 13+ years. Although the price of copper is above $3.45/lb now in 10 years time it could be below $1/lb.

[nappers] 06/5/2006 15:28

pinhead - I don´t agree that an exploration company will not be affected by the underlying price. Look at the Oil&Gas E&P companies which are trading on higher valuations than those producing.

If this bull run continues in copper, at some point volume will improve as more speculative investors bid up the stock on potential future revenues vastly imrpoved by the underlying commodity price.

As for the 1mn trades, I guess we will see Monday which way it swings - if we hold 100p over the next week, then the impending news should see us movenorth strongly IMO..

[pinhead3] 06/5/2006 12:06

METS report on Haib, confirmation of financing for Kinsenda & update on Hinoba-an could all come over the next month or two

[unionhall] 05/5/2006 22:59

Roll-over I'd say - the difference in quantity equates to the commission.

Still a large trade - some one has confidence to roll it.

[trustman] 05/5/2006 22:57

Pinhead....I wonder if a buy and a sell...I heard yesterday there was a line of 1m overhanging the market.If that has cleared,excellent news as a 1m purchase suggests solid confidence at this level.
I would like to see some newsflow however.It will presumably take some time to arrange bank finance for MMK, but how about keeping us in touch with the tailings operation or any other development...as much as anything to show they are shareholder friendly!Trustman

[pinhead3] 05/5/2006 22:42

2 1 million+ trades after the close which look like buys, very interesting.

[Abuse team] 05/5/2006 19:01

Post removed by ADVFN

[pinhead3] 05/5/2006 18:49

CRC is not producing very much copper at the moment so short term price movements are unlikely to move the share price.
News on the company's projects will.

[nappers] 05/5/2006 16:06

I´m surprised this has not rallied more given the copper price moves we are seeing recently....

[pinhead3] 04/5/2006 19:38

AFX News Limited
Copper prices set for 20 pct decline warns trader - report
05.04.2006, 03:08 AM

LONDON (AFX) - The soaring price of copper could drop by a fifth in the next two to three months, The Daily Telegraph reported citing a senior trader on the floor of the London Metal Exchange.

The dealer, who asked to remain anonymous, said recent market fluctuations were typical of the trading pattern prior to a significant change of direction.

'I expect a 20 pct correction. The market will be volatile and illiquid for a while before it cracks,' he is reported as saying.

The LME accounts for around 90 pct of the world's trade in copper, dwarfing rival markets in New York and Shanghai.

The price of copper has risen by 60 pct this year, with the cash price for immediate delivery reaching a peak of 7,391 usd a tonne this week, a five-fold increase on the 1,400 usd at which the metal traded only four years ago.

An escalation in the volume of speculative trading, and the growing use of commodities as a diversification for pension funds away from equities and bonds, has contributed to the soaring price of the metals traded on the LME. It is estimated that 80 pct of trades derive from financial rather than industrial traders, according to the newspaper.

Big investors such as Hermes, which manages the retirement funds of BT Group PLC and the Post Office, Calpers, the largest public sector fund in the US, and J Sainsbury PLC's pension fund have all announced plans to increase their exposure to commodities.

[e-mail]

ml/nes

[pinhead3] 04/5/2006 19:34

Copper at new high as BHP stokes supply fears
By Neil Dennis
Published: May 4 2006 12:01 | Last updated: May 4 2006 17:40

Copper prices soared to new highs on Thursday as shrinking stockpiles of the metal and the continuing threat of production disruptions stoked supply fears.


BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, said that labour disputes and equipment shortages, added to rising global demand, would be likely to result in a shortfall of copper concentrate through to the end of 2008, while planned new mines and production plants come online.

John Croft, the mining group's base metals marketing executive, said that prices were unlikely to fall far while stockpiles remained at such low levels.

The London Metal Exchange reported that stocks in its warehouses had fallen to the lowest levels since April 19, and represented just two days of global demand.

But traders said volumes were starting to dry up as prices continued to hit a succession of new highs. "Volume is dying away and liquidity is poor," said John Kemp at Sempra Metals. He added that hedge fund buying was providing the main prop, as speculators bet the market could continue to support higher prices.

"I don't see what will turn the market around in the immediate near-term. People are just too scared to go short," he said.

By the close of trade in London, the three month LME contract stood at $7,650 a tonne, up $545 from the previous session's close, but off a record of $7,680.

[pinhead3] 03/5/2006 20:23

' 03/05/2006 12:00:00
Copper treads water awaiting developments, other metals follow

BaseMetals.com Report

The metals put in a mixed day, largely sitting on the fence as if waiting to see which way prices break. Although the trends are still overall heading higher and the bulls have been dominant since last July, the market seems to be showing some nervousness. Is it worried by the threat of higher exchange margins, or the fact that the ICSG forecasts a supply surplus of 240,000 mt this year, or perhaps by the realisation that demand is being hit by substitution? In which case it maybe wondering how much longer can it realistically justify holding at these near-record levels, especially if there is the potential that China is looking to touch the brakes of the economy.

The problem, however, is that although the downside factors are starting to pile up, the one that breaks the camels back has not turned up yet and in the meantime the market remains a dangerous place for bears and bulls alike; the only differences being that the bulls have the track record of winning, are confident and probably have more cash to see through their investment targets. As such, until the market makes it very clear that it is heading south it is best advised to sit on the sidelines, as the top of the market might still be a long way off. Having not experienced a market like this before, perhaps the Gold spike in the 1980's will help us understand how the market might unravel. Back then the last $250/oz was achieved in 8 days, but prices retrace 90% of that move in 5 days. So even if you miss the first move lower, in say copper, as long as you do not procrastinate too long when the balloon bursts there should still be opportunities for those who are quick enough to react.

- ends - '

The question is whether the copper price is pausing before rising further or stalling before a correcting fall?

[pinhead3] 03/5/2006 18:44

Chestnuts
On the 14th November last year CRC said the METS report on Haib would take 6 months, so taking that literally that would be 14th May. Realisticly I would say anytime between now & end May.