Cookson Share Discussion Threads

[bobsidian] 28/10/2010 22:05

CKSN looks to have recently completed a 5 wave advance with the last 2 waves being broken into separate sub-waves of 3. Since the beginning of October the share price action of CKSN has been somewhat laboured.

The tumble over the course of the last 3 trading sessions is currently healthy and perhaps the beginnings of a retrace of the entire move up since the start of September. If CKSN is to be only retracing then it would not be surprising to see the share price pull back in a 2 wave decline to around £4.80. The natural move would be to see the current share continues its decline to around £5.20, rebound back up to about £5.50 and then move down to around £4.80.

What gives me pause for thought is the pattern of the historic Nikkei 225 during the 1990s and how the current S&P500 appears to be correlated to the historic moves of that index. It was at just such a point that the Nikkei 225 staged a reverse that degenerated into a destructive and relentless bear market.

Adding in the possibility of an uncertain outcome of the 2nd November mid-term elections in the US and a token level of quantitative easing deployed by the Federal Reserve in recognition that asset classes have already done the work intended by just such an exercise, and we could have the perfect set up for an initial and significant stockmarket sell off.

CKSN has been one of the strong shares in the rebound since March 2009. To see its share price giving signs of rolling over whilst the broader equity markets continue an increasingly stuttering advance is perhaps of some early significance.

I do get the feeling that this may be time to exercise caution. As always we shall see.

[hvs] 28/10/2010 15:32

Cause its a BUNCH OF IDIOTS IN CHARGE here.

Just look at the share price history.

[robertfaulkner] 28/10/2010 15:20

Why down to nearly 530p on a day when FTSE up 30 points

[on the up] 26/10/2010 22:45

Ummm, interesting times here at CKSN.

The chart tells its own story, buffetted at times and plain sailing otherwise as it follows a rituatlistic pattern to its (obvious) history. bobsidian - thanks for your posts regarding TA.

IMS due in three weeks' time....or probably less. This will have been a good period as far as I'm concerned and I bought today sub 570p in expectation.

It's been a while but pleased to be back in.

Gla, OTU

[brucie5] 21/10/2010 09:54

Bob, interested by your analysis, though would like to know what part might be played in all of this by China's continued 10% annual growth. This, despite the current Western recession. Odd, and perhaps unsustainable, given China's export driven economy. Unless it's the domestic market that's driving the consumption of raw materials.. Bolton's China fund is doing extremely well, despite apprehensions that it might have been a late entrant to the market. Personally, I don't know what to make of it all.

[bobsidian] 13/10/2010 19:59

Though they may move yet higher, the broader stockmarkets are feeling a bit toppy at current levels and look increasingly due a significant retrace. The FTSE100 may only see another 1% move higher before the signal is there for short sellers to drive that index lower.

And of course the final spike higher could see CKSN put on up to as much as 10% in a single day on an intraday basis before staging an intraday reverse.

We shall see.

[bobsidian] 08/10/2010 14:55

Looks increasingly like a final and fifth wave higher may take the share price up to the £6 level. Thereafter watch out below as the mining sector takes a hammering dragging CKSN lower.

You look at commodity prices and scratch your head as they seek to move to replicate prices seen at the height of the economic boom. Bizarre. But you do not stand in the way of the stockmarket as it fuels a perception of another imminent quantitative easing exercise. Heaven help all asset classes if such an exercise fails to materialise.

[grigor] 06/10/2010 22:06

I'm interested!

Lots of good news about Steel coming out

[robertfaulkner] 06/10/2010 18:53

Nobody interested in Cksn up 26p today, 4.7% to 574p. A high since Sep 1st.

It's been all the way up for 6 weeks with just small pauses to catch it's breath.

If you look at 6 months chart, price is approaching the 6 month high of 610p around April 1st.

Will Cksn go past 610p in next few days, and what is driving it?????????

[roundup] 30/9/2010 15:29

I'm wondering if the S/P will drop back-- having gone up to new heights. I was unfortunate to have sold out on the last dip just before it took off.

[rwlly] 30/9/2010 08:01

Very difficult to predict, but hopefully this is not another false dawn.

[bobsidian] 29/9/2010 20:11

A positive move higher with a natural upside to around £5.60 before another minor pull back.

CKSN may be about to make a 5 wave advance en route to an ultimate test of the £6.00 level.

Maybe.

The fly in the ointment may be the S&P500 as it struggles with resistance at the 1150 level. If it fails to break through that level then a broader retrace may be in the offing.

[grigor] 29/9/2010 18:29

Brokers are clueless - If they knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be brokers

[kpoll01] 29/9/2010 14:40

Another positive tick northwards whilst the markets tread water!

[rwlly] 23/9/2010 15:37

I sometimes wonder whether brokers put out sell notes when they are short of shares, and buy notes when they have got too many?

[kpoll01] 23/9/2010 12:04

Telegraph online today:

Cookson started with sell rating and 400p target price at Oriel
BFN

[rwlly] 23/9/2010 08:02

Still think the share is being rerated.

[bobsidian] 22/9/2010 21:30

The share price movement in CKSN has been behaving well of late. If there is to be a continuation in the move higher then over the course of the next couple of trading sessions a pull back to around £4.85 could be in the offing. This would be consistent with a pull back on the S&P500 to test the point of its break higher on Monday through its resistance at around 1125-1127. If that test holds it may trigger another advance in the S&P500 up to the April highs of around 1220. Such a move would doubtless be tracked by CKSN with its share price moving back up to around £6.00.

There is always the need for caution. A strengthening of the US Dollar may see a reverse in the performance of mining shares, some of which are beginning to show signs of being temporarily overbought and in need of a correction.

And 3 wave advances in share price movements also have a habit of triggering a more substantial correction but usually only after a move back up to test a recent high. In the case of CKSN that would suggest a move back up to re-test around £5.25.

And in the overall scheme of things a move higher by the S&P500 to re-test its April high may be more of a negative signal than is perhaps realised. If that index is indeed tracking the 1990s Nikkei 225 then a move to around 1220 may be as far as the index goes. Thereafter the index may see the emergence of a new bear market taking it down to around the 450 level.

At this moment in time it is hard to conceive of the trigger for such a sustained downward trajectory but it is always a source of wonder at how circumstance comes to pass to "support" such a move. Take your pick - the threat of military conflict with Iran, a more militarily aggressive successor to Kim Jong Il in North Korea, any number of major environmental catastrophes to affect key countries or simply a recognition of failure of economic policy in Western economies triggering a major surge in unemployment and a significant and damaging deflationery spiral.

The lesson of the last decade has certainly been to expect the unexpected and to guard against complacency. Making hay whilst the sun shines seems to be the order of the day...until it is not. The speed of the reverses in investor and trader sentiment over the course of the last few months has been somewhat mesmerising and increasingly unpredictable. Was it not 3 weeks ago that negative sentiment reigned supreme as money rotated out of equities and surged into bonds and treasuries ?

[robertfaulkner] 22/9/2010 12:46

unfortunately rwlly, it doesn't look like it after 14p fall today, why no comment in the press about a 22p rise yesterday?

[rwlly] 22/9/2010 07:59

Is this the rerating we have been waiting so long for?

[roundup] 13/9/2010 10:56

Should break £5 soon

[markie7] 10/9/2010 13:34

goign well last couple of days.

[bobsidian] 09/9/2010 14:19

Major selling going on in key market moving shares into the current market strength. And yet indices and their constituents continue to rise.

Powerful forces at work as bond and treasury markets stage a sell off and rotate into equity markets.

[bobsidian] 09/9/2010 11:28

The share price of CKSN, like the mining companies, seems to be having a stab at breaking higher to perhaps stage a run up to highs seen in April.

FTSE100 seems to be staging an attempt at a technical break upward to confirm an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Such a move would be akin to the charting pattern seen in 2007 before its significant and sustained break to the downside.

Short sellers are however out in force trying to quell this march northward. If they fail then a significant short squeeze may be in the offing.