Cookson Share Discussion Threads

[restassured] 08/7/2010 07:23

07/08/2010 07:15:20 - MARKET TALK: Equity Markets Have Bottomed- Herston Economics

0515 GMT [Dow Jones] Global equity markets have bottomed, says Herston Economics Chief Economist Clifford Bennett. "Equity markets globally are looking very good to begin to price in strong manufacturing and consumer activity...it is encouraging to see the major banks and brokerage houses suggesting caution, that there is still plenty of gloom and doom out there, even after the bull market has taken off. This suggests the shorts have yet to seriously exit and therefore the potential upside is awesome."

[bob f2] 07/7/2010 17:32

Sid, funny how some commentators are talking about Japanese style stagflation in the UK where the debts just get bigger in real terms. I think a lot of Buy to leters could get there fingers burnt (and bad rental payers as the unemployment surges)

[bobsidian] 07/7/2010 11:11

"Surely equities that have a facing towards the Asian economies, specfically the growth sectors therein, will be better rewarded over a 10 year timeframe than residential property."

Yes. But which 10 year time frame ?

There is this belief that China will be the salvation of the world economy. But the freedom to consume and the freedom to run up personal debt to do so is not quite in keeping with communist principles. Just how far will the powers that be be comfortable with the granting of such freedom ?

It is noted that those fund managers with a Chinese focus are talking of the Shanghai Composite staging a rally of up to 85% over the course of the next 1-2 years. Admittedly they may be talking their own book given that their performance has been somewhat financially impacted by the descent of the Shanghai Composite into a bear market this year.

And then you see the clamour by the U.S. in particular to allow a free floating of the Yuan. If that day comes just how will that impact upon the region as Chinese exports become increasingly more expensive in a price sensitive North America and Europe ?

I agree about residential property within the U.K. It bemuses me somewhat about the numbers of people who have surged into buy-to-let property at supposed discounts to open market value at auction. Are they wise to do so ? Are they anticipating a return to an inflationery environment akin to 1974-77 where annual inflation ranged between 18% and 25% during that 4 year spell, believing inflation will erode the nominal value of debt used to acquire the property whilst the nominal price of the same property surges ? Or is such a move into buy-to-let symptomatic of investors chasing a boom that has long since turned to bust ? Few of those same investors want to talk about the impact and implications of a rapid rise in interest rates in an attempt to curb inflation during such a period.

[bob f2] 07/7/2010 06:47

What a great thread this is, Bobsid and Matt giving two opposing views that give the rest of us different insides.

My hope for China is that the central gov will try to slow the economy to stop overheating (if only the UK had these problems) but only as long as growth continues to stop any unrest.

If China's growth is expected to be above 5% (pretty low by China's standards)Cksn share price should be very positive, but today looks a little worrying with the Ftse showing to be down 50 points

[mattjos] 06/7/2010 19:08

residential property? I am a contrarian Bob .. whenever i see the chance to be so profitably. Residential property, in the uk, doesn't do it for me one bit other then the necessity to live somewhere and no desire to pay a landlord.

Surely equities that have a facing towards the Asian economies, specfically the growth sectors therein, will be better rewarded over a 10 year timeframe than residential property.

I dropped CKSN last Autumn after a reasonable run with it from March 09 .... purely because they had insufficient Chinese exposure & I posted as such then. We're now back below that sale price but CKSN has Chinese exposure, so i'm back in. Let's see how Vesuvius get on in China .. it's not without competition but they have a strong brand.

[bobsidian] 06/7/2010 15:18

We are probably now in a stockmarket where few really believe in the longetivity of any bounce back with most of it likely to be perceived as fuelled principally by short covering.

And doubtless with such negativity, relief rallies may extend further than most believe to draw in as much new money as possible before they are reversed back down yet further than most would hope.

To a certain extent the run up in equities since March 2009 seems to have been viewed with scepticism by many a long term investor and has been characterised by low volume participation when compared to other bull markets. All the way up bullish commentators on western equity markets were saying "there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to come in to equity markets and be put to work" - yet little of that cash seemed to have been put into play. And after the experience of the last decade, who can criticise the investor/trader increasingly attuned to and unsettled by the extremes of volatility and the extent of directional moves triggered by such volatility.

As seen in the latter stages of the 1990s in Japan, the big danger for western stockmarkets may lie in the long term investor giving up the ghost and largely abandoning their own stockmarkets in favour of other asset classes which may offer a greater degree of earnings visibility in spite of valuation risks. Some would say this is already happening with lesser allocations of wealth being exposed to equity markets and greater allocations being committed to real assets such as residential property and less volatile investments such as bonds and treasuries. Are contrarians to be rewarded or punished in such an investment climate ?

[bob f2] 06/7/2010 08:56

Jonno1, at last another post, nobody seems interested now Cksn is going up.

I hope it's not a dead cat bounce

[jonno1] 06/7/2010 08:48

looks like I was a week early !!

[robertfaulkner] 03/7/2010 08:59

Well short of 10% close but a day high of 389p was pretty good.

Is Cksn tied to the Ftse or China's manufacturing output prospects?

Bob F

[robertfaulkner] 02/7/2010 09:58

Much better now the market has fully opened (Post 9 am)

Up 12.5p but that is only 3.5%.

Still plenty on time for shorters to bottle out and push price up as they exit.

Could still get 10%

[robertfaulkner] 02/7/2010 08:32

Oh dear did I mean down 10% after 9 am

[bob f2] 02/7/2010 07:20

The Aus government has lowered the "super tax" on mining companies and the share price of miners are expected to shoot up today, is Cksn going to follow on their coattails or as usual is it in the price already?

Could we see a 10 to 15% jump in Cksn share price at 8am?????

[hvs] 01/7/2010 08:37

Its cause its being run by DONKEYS

[robertfaulkner] 01/7/2010 08:34

Chingman, why the big drop first thing?

[chingman] 01/7/2010 08:24

Interesting CKSN article -

[grigor] 30/6/2010 22:28

Seems cheap and the business cycle is becoming favourable.

Kindly took Foseco off my hands!

[qs9] 30/6/2010 22:25

thanks evox. Given most recent RNS I would agree with Citi....!

[evox] 30/6/2010 22:11

Citi have this with the highest potential upside of comparable European engineers (this week). Target £7.50.

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2010 19:23

Reading the last IMS, they give a debt figure as of 12/2009.

Why was a more up to date debt figure not given?.

[bobsidian] 30/6/2010 18:35

If it is to continue its decline, CKSN may garner support at around £3.55 before rebounding - a level that was recognised as support during last year.

On the other hand if it is to stage a rebound, then back may go the share price to retest the point of breach of apparent recent support at around £4.15.

[roundup] 30/6/2010 16:35

bob. Thanks---I'm in at the moment, but also trade. I hadn't anticipated it falling to this level however.

[bobsidian] 30/6/2010 15:59

roundup

Also not currently.

And like On The Up, I trade CKSN.

CKSN is one of those shares that within the last year has established a range and seems to oscillate within that range.

I suspect buy and hold is not necessarily the best strategy to adopt with CKSN.

[qs9] 30/6/2010 09:57

IMO for the upgrades to have occurred on last RNS, management IMO must have been reasonably confident to allow that to happen, so for the shares to fall by way over half, to me seems like over kill on the risk side. DYOR but I do believe they are oversold....hoping I am not wrong!!

[mattjos] 30/6/2010 09:56

picked up a few here for the long term whilst under 400 but well aware the next 1/4 earnings and outlook are pretty key.
FWIW i have contact recently with Vesuvius in China from a new site .. looking to buy some of our kit for expansion. Only a snippet i know